Benue State

Rooftop solar in Agatu, Benue: what the roofs are worth

Agatu has 33,247 buildings with a viable rooftop and 506 MWp of roof capacity. 70% run a generator, and together they spend ₦41.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

33,247

Usable roof area

2.26 km²

506 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦41.5bn/yr

38.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

1.4 yr

Median IRR 73% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Agatu

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦41.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦40.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.05tn

NPV₦335bn

Median IRR73%

Median payback1.4 yr

Unlocked energy21.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity78.4 MWp

Capex₦81.9bn

Year-one energy value₦80.5bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.81tn

NPV₦651bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Agatu's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 78.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦81.9bn
Year 1 savings: ₦80.5bn/yr
NPV: ₦651bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Agatu pays back quickly

Of the 33,097 buildings in Agatu with a modelled payback, 81.4% pay back inside five years and 69.7% inside three.

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How much of Agatu's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Agatu consume 47 GWh/yr but want 68.4 GWh/yr. The 31% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Agatu

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Agatu actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 33,097 buildings with a modelled result out of 33,247 in Agatu. 28,576 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years23,069 (70%)

Under 5 years26,929 (81%)

Under 7 years28,576 (86%)

Under 10 years29,780 (90%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%29,466 (89%)

Above 15%28,576 (86%)

Above 20%27,350 (82%)

Above 25%26,187 (79%)

CO₂ avoided

68.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

23.8 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

21.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

156k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Agatu.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Agatu

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	16,335	11,234	₦17bn	₦16.6bn	69%	1.4 yr
D	8,995	5,335	₦10.8bn	₦10.6bn	71%	1.4 yr
E	7,618	6,429	₦13.6bn	₦13.1bn	77%	1.4 yr
B	299	112	₦250m	₦249m	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	31,750	21,622	₦36.1bn	₦35.1bn	75%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	456	456	₦2.21bn	₦2.21bn	67%	1.6 yr
Worship	333	328	₦524m	₦524m	63%	1.6 yr
Anchor	322	322	₦2.2bn	₦2.19bn	81%	1.4 yr
Commercial Retail	247	243	₦66.8m	₦66.8m	67%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	80	80	₦97.3m	₦97.3m	67%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	45	45	₦283m	₦283m	69%	1.6 yr
Industrial	14	14	₦32.3m	₦32.3m	73%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	10,142	7,752	₦22.9bn	₦22.6bn	77%	1.4 yr
Under 30m2	8,847	5,451	₦638m	₦635m	63%	1.6 yr
50 100m2	8,670	6,061	₦6.33bn	₦5.93bn	75%	1.4 yr
30 50m2	4,582	3,018	₦953m	₦939m	71%	1.4 yr
250 1000m2	988	815	₦9.96bn	₦9.68bn	79%	1.4 yr
Over 1000m2	18	13	₦738m	₦738m	73%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Rural	14,674	10,594	₦14.9bn	₦14.8bn	75%	1.4 yr
Unclassified	9,892	6,770	₦18bn	₦17.1bn	75%	1.4 yr
Urban	5,362	4,314	₦7.33bn	₦7.22bn	75%	1.4 yr
Dense Urban	3,319	1,432	₦1.37bn	₦1.37bn	27%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	11,884	8,377	₦8.16bn	₦7.75bn	77%	1.4 yr
Shed	9,528	6,174	₦625m	₦625m	67%	1.6 yr
Residential	7,463	5,932	₦26.8bn	₦26.2bn	77%	1.4 yr
Residential Formal	2,866	1,130	₦520m	₦516m	27%	4.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	314	310	₦139m	₦139m	67%	1.6 yr
Institutional	262	261	₦1.41bn	₦1.41bn	61%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	240	240	₦1.07bn	₦1.07bn	71%	1.4 yr
Place Of Worship	126	124	₦91.6m	₦91.6m	67%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	106	106	₦436m	₦436m	87%	1.1 yr
Worship Center	106	104	₦96.5m	₦96.5m	67%	1.6 yr
School	78	78	₦230m	₦230m	87%	1.1 yr
Clinic	75	75	₦384m	₦377m	55%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	33,247	23,110	₦41.5bn	₦40.5bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	32,629	22,492	₦38bn	₦37bn	73%	1.4 yr
SME High	314	314	₦1.45bn	₦1.45bn	71%	1.4 yr
Enterprise	304	304	₦2.1bn	₦2.09bn	83%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
2.0	11,580	8,641	₦16.3bn	₦15.7bn
0.0	9,547	6,192	₦628m	₦628m
3.0	5,755	4,415	₦20.3bn	₦19.9bn
1.0	4,119	2,895	₦2.71bn	₦2.68bn
4.0	2,243	964	₦1.5bn	₦1.49bn
5.0	3	3	₦124m	₦124m