Benue State

Rooftop solar in Obi, Benue: what the roofs are worth

Obi has 37,128 buildings with a viable rooftop and 505 MWp of roof capacity. 50% run a generator, and together they spend ₦21.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

37,128

Usable roof area

2.27 km²

505 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦21.4bn/yr

19.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

2.9 yr

Median IRR 33% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Obi

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦21.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦20.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.04tn

NPV₦170bn

Median IRR33%

Median payback2.9 yr

Unlocked energy15.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity62.4 MWp

Capex₦66.5bn

Year-one energy value₦64.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.07tn

NPV₦524bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Obi's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 62.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦66.5bn
Year 1 savings: ₦64.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦524bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Obi pays back quickly

Of the 36,945 buildings in Obi with a modelled payback, 69.2% pay back inside five years and 50.1% inside three.

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How much of Obi's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Obi consume 25.3 GWh/yr but want 40.6 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Obi

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Obi actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 36,945 buildings with a modelled result out of 37,128 in Obi. 28,064 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years18,518 (50%)

Under 5 years25,568 (69%)

Under 7 years28,052 (76%)

Under 10 years30,489 (83%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%29,754 (80%)

Above 15%28,064 (76%)

Above 20%26,444 (71%)

Above 25%23,550 (63%)

CO₂ avoided

37.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

12 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

15.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

164k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Obi.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Obi

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	13,358	6,696	₦8.19bn	₦7.78bn	47%	2.1 yr
E	12,755	5,667	₦6.02bn	₦5.96bn	27%	4.1 yr
C	11,015	6,283	₦7.19bn	₦6.89bn	63%	1.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	36,585	18,108	₦19.4bn	₦18.6bn	27%	4.1 yr
Anchor	259	259	₦1.44bn	₦1.4bn	81%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	176	174	₦450m	₦450m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	93	90	₦111m	₦111m	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial	8	8	₦14.7m	₦14.7m	71%	1.4 yr
Commercial Retail	7	7	₦1.14m	₦1.14m	65%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
50 100m2	10,667	5,143	₦3.51bn	₦3.47bn	27%	4.1 yr
100 250m2	10,568	6,199	₦12bn	₦11.5bn	73%	1.4 yr
Under 30m2	10,354	4,469	₦366m	₦363m	9%	13.1 yr
30 50m2	4,941	2,333	₦469m	₦436m	23%	4.6 yr
250 1000m2	595	499	₦4.55bn	₦4.35bn	77%	1.4 yr
Over 1000m2	3	3	₦554m	₦514m	81%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	14,183	8,554	₦8.8bn	₦8.6bn	65%	1.6 yr
Rural	12,147	4,341	₦3.83bn	₦3.69bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	8,492	3,702	₦6.89bn	₦6.44bn	27%	4.1 yr
Dense Urban	2,306	2,049	₦1.89bn	₦1.89bn	51%	2.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	15,191	7,629	₦5.4bn	₦5.19bn	47%	1.6 yr
Shed	12,016	5,112	₦372m	₦372m	9%	9.9 yr
Residential	7,127	4,198	₦13.2bn	₦12.7bn	73%	1.4 yr
Residential Formal	2,251	1,169	₦375m	₦375m	29%	3.9 yr
Institutional	168	167	₦937m	₦897m	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	98	98	₦335m	₦335m	87%	1.1 yr
School	62	62	₦103m	₦103m	83%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	55	55	₦382m	₦382m	53%	1.9 yr
Clinic	42	42	₦128m	₦128m	53%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	40	39	₦32.2m	₦32.2m	65%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	25	24	₦9.04m	₦9.04m	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	23	23	₦69.7m	₦69.7m	67%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	37,128	18,646	₦21.4bn	₦20.6bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	36,838	18,356	₦19.9bn	₦19.1bn	27%	3.9 yr
Enterprise	267	267	₦1.46bn	₦1.42bn	81%	1.4 yr
SME High	23	23	₦69.7m	₦69.7m	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
2.0	15,156	7,990	₦9.48bn	₦9.04bn
0.0	12,016	5,112	₦372m	₦372m
3.0	4,596	2,991	₦10bn	₦9.72bn
1.0	3,699	1,686	₦1.03bn	₦1.02bn
4.0	1,661	867	₦477m	₦477m