Benue State

Rooftop solar in Tarka, Benue: what the roofs are worth

Tarka has 49,626 buildings with a viable rooftop and 362 MWp of roof capacity. 5% run a generator, and together they spend ₦3.81bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

49,626

Usable roof area

1.65 km²

362 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦3.81bn/yr

3.27 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

15.6 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Tarka

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦3.81bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦3.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦210bn

NPV₦29.4bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback15.6 yr

Unlocked energy5.31 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity37.4 MWp

Capex₦40bn

Year-one energy value₦37.3bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.77tn

NPV₦300bn

Median IRR91%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Tarka's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 37.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦40bn
Year 1 savings: ₦37.3bn/yr
NPV: ₦300bn
Median IRR: 91%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Tarka pays back quickly

Of the 48,618 buildings in Tarka with a modelled payback, 20.9% pay back inside five years and 4.7% inside three.

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How much of Tarka's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Tarka consume 7.6 GWh/yr but want 12.9 GWh/yr. The 41% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Tarka

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Tarka actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 48,618 buildings with a modelled result out of 49,626 in Tarka. 13,947 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years2,275 (5%)

Under 5 years10,144 (21%)

Under 7 years13,929 (29%)

Under 10 years18,295 (38%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%17,637 (36%)

Above 15%13,947 (28%)

Above 20%10,867 (22%)

Above 25%8,709 (18%)

CO₂ avoided

8.07 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

1.62 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

5.31 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

149k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Tarka.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Tarka

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	16,342	733	₦1.47bn	₦1.47bn	5%	16.4 yr
B	13,020	672	₦541m	₦541m	13%	7.4 yr
D	10,968	618	₦1bn	₦997m	5%	16.6 yr
E	9,296	290	₦793m	₦793m	5%	16.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	49,067	1,857	₦2.47bn	₦2.46bn	7%	15.6 yr
Commercial General	253	203	₦233m	₦233m	51%	2.1 yr
Anchor	246	199	₦1.09bn	₦1.09bn	51%	2.1 yr
Industrial	37	33	₦17.9m	₦17.9m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	18	18	₦739k	₦739k	51%	2.1 yr
Worship	5	3	₦1.56m	₦1.56m	63%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	31,056	965	₦122m	₦122m	5%	17.4 yr
30 50m2	7,282	293	₦85.2m	₦85.2m	7%	14.1 yr
50 100m2	6,834	366	₦372m	₦372m	25%	4.4 yr
100 250m2	3,762	448	₦1.07bn	₦1.06bn	27%	4.1 yr
250 1000m2	668	226	₦1.49bn	₦1.49bn	27%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	24	15	₦671m	₦671m	51%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	21,793	783	₦1.4bn	₦1.4bn	5%	16.9 yr
Urban	16,842	1,098	₦1.83bn	₦1.82bn	7%	15.4 yr
Dense Urban	10,072	392	₦553m	₦553m	13%	7.4 yr
Rural	919	40	₦31m	₦31m	5%	16.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	34,200	942	₦112m	₦112m	5%	17.1 yr
Residential Small	9,470	381	₦394m	₦394m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	5,391	534	₦1.96bn	₦1.96bn	27%	4.1 yr
Institutional	179	149	₦669m	₦669m	53%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	84	69	₦108m	₦108m	75%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	63	54	₦400m	₦400m	49%	2.1 yr
School	58	44	₦67.2m	₦67.2m	71%	1.4 yr
Unknown	39	25	₦16.1m	₦16.1m	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial Site	37	33	₦17.9m	₦17.9m	63%	1.6 yr
Clinic	35	27	₦29.1m	₦29.1m	47%	2.4 yr
Market	24	21	₦4.95m	₦4.95m	57%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	18	18	₦739k	₦739k	51%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	49,626	2,313	₦3.81bn	₦3.8bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	49,334	2,072	₦2.69bn	₦2.69bn	7%	15.6 yr
Enterprise	283	232	₦1.1bn	₦1.1bn	53%	1.9 yr
SME High	9	9	₦12.4m	₦12.4m	49%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	34,207	943	₦112m	₦112m
1.0	8,202	519	₦340m	₦340m
2.0	6,053	610	₦1.32bn	₦1.31bn
3.0	1,161	238	₦2.03bn	₦2.03bn
4.0	2	2	₦6.74m	₦6.74m
5.0	1	1	₦2.24m	₦2.24m