Benue State

Rooftop solar in Apa, Benue: what the roofs are worth

Apa has 45,148 buildings with a viable rooftop and 647 MWp of roof capacity. 47% run a generator, and together they spend ₦23.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

45,148

Usable roof area

2.9 km²

647 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦23.1bn/yr

21.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Apa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦23.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦22.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.16tn

NPV₦189bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy16.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity69.4 MWp

Capex₦72.9bn

Year-one energy value₦71.1bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.38tn

NPV₦576bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Apa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 69.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦72.9bn
Year 1 savings: ₦71.1bn/yr
NPV: ₦576bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Apa pays back quickly

Of the 44,839 buildings in Apa with a modelled payback, 65.9% pay back inside five years and 47.4% inside three.

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How much of Apa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Apa consume 28.5 GWh/yr but want 44.7 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Apa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Apa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 44,839 buildings with a modelled result out of 45,148 in Apa. 33,140 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years21,273 (47%)

Under 5 years29,528 (66%)

Under 7 years33,137 (74%)

Under 10 years35,990 (80%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%34,982 (77%)

Above 15%33,140 (73%)

Above 20%30,681 (68%)

Above 25%27,077 (60%)

CO₂ avoided

40.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

13 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

16.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

171k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Apa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Apa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	17,793	7,880	₦8.16bn	₦8.11bn	27%	4.1 yr
C	14,707	7,593	₦8.07bn	₦7.97bn	47%	2.1 yr
E	12,648	5,908	₦6.84bn	₦6.82bn	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	44,180	20,413	₦18.9bn	₦18.8bn	27%	4.1 yr
Anchor	450	450	₦2.46bn	₦2.39bn	79%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	358	358	₦1.54bn	₦1.54bn	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	72	72	₦21.1m	₦21.1m	49%	2.1 yr
Productive Use	38	38	₦21m	₦21m	63%	1.6 yr
Worship	24	24	₦16m	₦16m	63%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	19	19	₦62.4m	₦62.4m	69%	1.6 yr
Industrial	6	6	₦13.5m	₦13.5m	71%	1.4 yr
Mall Retail	1	1	₦276k	₦276k	69%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
50 100m2	12,655	5,720	₦2.85bn	₦2.85bn	27%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	12,020	4,797	₦361m	₦361m	7%	14.1 yr
100 250m2	11,958	6,873	₦11.5bn	₦11.5bn	73%	1.4 yr
30 50m2	7,234	3,081	₦496m	₦496m	19%	5.9 yr
250 1000m2	1,247	888	₦6.55bn	₦6.46bn	77%	1.4 yr
Over 1000m2	34	22	₦1.27bn	₦1.27bn	67%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Rural	17,642	9,382	₦9.27bn	₦9.18bn	59%	1.9 yr
Unclassified	16,992	5,351	₦7.44bn	₦7.34bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	6,248	3,503	₦4.59bn	₦4.59bn	65%	1.6 yr
Dense Urban	4,266	3,145	₦1.78bn	₦1.78bn	53%	1.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	16,397	7,520	₦3.69bn	₦3.69bn	27%	4.1 yr
Shed	15,357	5,872	₦454m	₦454m	9%	13.1 yr
Residential	10,165	5,953	₦14.5bn	₦14.4bn	75%	1.4 yr
Residential Formal	2,261	1,068	₦281m	₦281m	27%	4.1 yr
Institutional	231	231	₦1.68bn	₦1.68bn	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	171	171	₦431m	₦431m	85%	1.1 yr
School	132	132	₦324m	₦324m	83%	1.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	121	121	₦686m	₦686m	51%	2.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	105	105	₦39.5m	₦39.5m	51%	2.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	68	68	₦603m	₦539m	53%	1.9 yr
Clinic	68	68	₦232m	₦232m	53%	2.1 yr
Place Of Worship	20	20	₦15.3m	₦15.3m	63%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	45,148	21,381	₦23.1bn	₦22.9bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	44,569	20,802	₦19.9bn	₦19.8bn	27%	4.1 yr
Enterprise	442	442	₦2.45bn	₦2.39bn	79%	1.4 yr
SME High	137	137	₦709m	₦709m	51%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
2.0	15,929	8,143	₦8.58bn	₦8.51bn
0.0	15,355	5,870	₦453m	₦453m
1.0	6,791	3,163	₦1.26bn	₦1.26bn
3.0	5,304	3,310	₦11.8bn	₦11.7bn
4.0	1,738	864	₦666m	₦666m
5.0	31	31	₦317m	₦317m