Nigeria rooftop solar data

Rooftop solar in Kwara State: buildings, spend and payback

1,375,328 buildings in Kwara State carry a viable rooftop. Together they spend ₦483bn a year on grid power and generator fuel, and 14% of them run a generator.

Viable buildings

1,375,328

Usable roof area

107 km²

24 GWp of roof capacity

Current energy spend

₦483bn/yr

381 GWh/yr from generators

Median payback

5.4 yr

Median IRR 19% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kwara

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦483bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦467bn

Lifetime cash saved₦25.6tn

NPV₦3.78tn

Median IRR19%

Median payback5.4 yr

Unlocked energy496 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity2.06 GWp

Capex₦2.02tn

Year-one energy value₦1.55tn

Lifetime energy value₦73.1tn

NPV₦12.1tn

Median IRR79%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Kwara State's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 2.06 GWp
Capital cost: ₦2.02tn
Year 1 savings: ₦1.55tn/yr
NPV: ₦12.1tn
Median IRR: 79%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kwara State pays back quickly

Of the 1,325,987 buildings in Kwara State with a modelled payback, 47.2% pay back inside five years and 14.3% inside three.

Payback under 5 years

47.2%

Payback under 3 years

14.3%

IRR above 20%

48.9%

Under 3 years · 14%3 – 5 years · 33%5 – 7 years · 12%7 – 10 years · 9%Over 10 years · 31%

Coverage: 96% of buildings in Kwara State produced a payback figure. Buildings with no viable scenario are excluded rather than counted as zero.

How much of Kwara State's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kwara State consume 941 GWh/yr but want 1.44 TWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Met today · 65%Suppressed · 35%

Energy wanted

1.44 TWh/yr

Energy consumed

941 GWh/yr

Unmet demand

496 GWh/yr

Modelled latent demand, not metered consumption. It is the load buildings would run given affordable, available supply.

How many rooftops in Kwara State actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 1,325,987 buildings with a modelled result out of 1,375,328 in Kwara State. 788,362 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years190,208 (14%)

Under 5 years626,441 (47%)

Under 7 years787,976 (59%)

Under 10 years908,421 (69%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%887,001 (64%)

Above 15%788,362 (57%)

Above 20%672,630 (49%)

Above 25%539,781 (39%)

Electricity billing bands in Kwara State

Loading band economics…

What a delivered unit costs, by DisCo

Grid tariff plus the generator running that fills the gap, blended across every building the DisCo serves. Ranked most expensive first — the higher the all-in rate, the stronger the case for solar.

Loading the league table…

Ikeja and Eko are reported together as Lagos. Rates are modelled blends of billed grid energy and generator running, not published tariffs.

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kwara State.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Where the opportunity sits

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	619,471	73,753	₦185bn	₦177bn	7%	13.4 yr
D	289,678	54,988	₦122bn	₦119bn	21%	5.1 yr
B	217,560	24,056	₦58.9bn	₦58.6bn	27%	4.1 yr
C	202,973	40,396	₦93.4bn	₦90.5bn	27%	4.1 yr
A	45,646	5,934	₦23.7bn	₦23.3bn	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	1,314,218	172,711	₦327bn	₦313bn	19%	5.6 yr
Commercial General	33,257	13,731	₦91.5bn	₦91.3bn	35%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	17,689	7,206	₦2.39bn	₦2.39bn	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	6,567	3,536	₦57.3bn	₦56.4bn	45%	2.4 yr
Worship	2,021	1,101	₦1.44bn	₦1.44bn	39%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	552	223	₦1.49bn	₦1.49bn	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	455	409	₦486m	₦486m	67%	1.6 yr
Industrial	339	137	₦711m	₦709m	39%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	113	24	₦134m	₦134m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	106	49	₦85.6m	₦85.5m	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	11	0	₦67.9m	₦67.9m	31%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	513,365	39,865	₦5.81bn	₦5.73bn	5%	16.9 yr
100 250m2	373,308	76,220	₦203bn	₦194bn	27%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	211,370	37,505	₦30.4bn	₦29.3bn	23%	4.6 yr
30 50m2	174,148	23,731	₦7.2bn	₦7.03bn	13%	7.4 yr
250 1000m2	101,306	21,108	₦175bn	₦171bn	27%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	1,831	698	₦62.3bn	₦61.3bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	505,158	52,491	₦154bn	₦144bn	5%	15.9 yr
Urban Centre	443,705	58,551	₦126bn	₦125bn	27%	4.1 yr
(Unset)	141,601	5,566	₦2.57bn	₦2.57bn	13%	7.6 yr
Urban	110,616	33,389	₦93.6bn	₦91.8bn	27%	4.1 yr
Rural	90,540	31,406	₦62.1bn	₦59.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	83,708	17,724	₦45.3bn	₦44.2bn	25%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	500,143	33,364	₦4.79bn	₦4.79bn	5%	16.6 yr
Residential Formal	207,782	22,051	₦15.5bn	₦15.4bn	23%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	189,038	13,725	₦21.4bn	₦20bn	23%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	187,164	45,040	₦34.4bn	₦33bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	173,272	53,807	₦248bn	₦237bn	27%	4.1 yr
Apartment	28,224	2,682	₦1.92bn	₦1.9bn	27%	4.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	18,027	7,538	₦2.72bn	₦2.72bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	15,229	7,979	₦48.2bn	₦48bn	37%	2.9 yr
Residential Large	15,171	509	₦196m	₦196m	13%	7.6 yr
Duplex	13,373	1,528	₦1.02bn	₦1.01bn	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	12,199	3,378	₦29.7bn	₦29.7bn	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	4,295	2,238	₦43.1bn	₦42.7bn	33%	3.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	1,374,129	198,798	₦474bn	₦459bn
Industrial	514	217	₦8.67bn	₦7.95bn
Farmyard	448	1	₦33.1m	₦33.1m
Commercial	128	97	₦142m	₦142m
Retail	58	8	₦3.27m	₦3.27m
Farmland	48	6	₦8.08m	₦8.08m
Orchard	3	0	₦6.21k	₦6.21k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	1,340,797	184,051	₦347bn	₦332bn	19%	5.4 yr
SME High	27,865	11,520	₦79bn	₦78.9bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	6,666	3,556	₦57.2bn	₦56.4bn	45%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	490,145	32,873	₦4.62bn	₦4.62bn
4.0	327,279	32,800	₦70bn	₦67.8bn
3.0	263,816	76,358	₦288bn	₦280bn
2.0	201,210	38,104	₦51.1bn	₦46.8bn
1.0	73,555	11,696	₦6.59bn	₦6.11bn
5.0	14,885	5,634	₦30.9bn	₦30.9bn
6.0	4,438	1,662	₦31.6bn	₦31.4bn