Kwara State

Rooftop solar in Ilorin South, Kwara: what the roofs are worth

Ilorin South has 172,697 buildings with a viable rooftop and 4.29 GWp of roof capacity. 17% run a generator, and together they spend ₦73.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

172,697

Usable roof area

19.1 km²

4.29 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦73.5bn/yr

45.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ilorin South

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦73.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦72.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦4.15tn

NPV₦582bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy103 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity397 MWp

Capex₦377bn

Year-one energy value₦250bn

Lifetime energy value₦11.7tn

NPV₦1.88tn

Median IRR69%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Ilorin South's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 397 MWp
Capital cost: ₦377bn
Year 1 savings: ₦250bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.88tn
Median IRR: 69%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ilorin South pays back quickly

Of the 170,590 buildings in Ilorin South with a modelled payback, 72.0% pay back inside five years and 14.8% inside three.

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How much of Ilorin South's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ilorin South consume 178 GWh/yr but want 281 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ilorin South

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ilorin South actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 170,590 buildings with a modelled result out of 172,697 in Ilorin South. 146,681 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years25,260 (15%)

Under 5 years122,786 (72%)

Under 7 years146,623 (86%)

Under 10 years159,011 (93%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%157,470 (91%)

Above 15%146,681 (85%)

Above 20%130,145 (75%)

Above 25%108,146 (63%)

CO₂ avoided

165 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

27 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

103 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

532k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ilorin South.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ilorin South

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	81,468	8,994	₦16.9bn	₦16.8bn	27%	4.1 yr
C	47,947	8,695	₦22.9bn	₦22.6bn	27%	4.1 yr
A	25,041	3,362	₦7.07bn	₦6.95bn	27%	4.1 yr
D	13,643	5,792	₦10.5bn	₦10.1bn	27%	4.1 yr
E	4,598	1,951	₦16.1bn	₦15.6bn	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	159,315	25,243	₦50.2bn	₦48.9bn	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	8,390	2,190	₦16.7bn	₦16.7bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	3,619	996	₦378m	₦378m	33%	3.1 yr
Anchor	815	251	₦5.32bn	₦5.31bn	43%	2.4 yr
Worship	291	74	₦134m	₦134m	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	120	12	₦348m	₦348m	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	57	11	₦223m	₦222m	39%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	40	7	₦38.8m	₦38.8m	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	24	4	₦11.7m	₦11.7m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	21	6	₦19.8m	₦19.8m	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	5	0	₦65m	₦65m	31%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	67,375	11,952	₦30.5bn	₦29.7bn	27%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	36,831	5,533	₦775m	₦769m	15%	6.6 yr
50 100m2	27,447	4,464	₦3.14bn	₦3.03bn	25%	4.4 yr
250 1000m2	22,188	3,819	₦30.5bn	₦30bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	18,590	2,938	₦821m	₦820m	21%	5.1 yr
Over 1000m2	266	88	₦7.8bn	₦7.75bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	149,618	20,334	₦36.4bn	₦36.3bn	27%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	12,654	3,964	₦13.6bn	₦12.7bn	27%	4.1 yr
Urban	9,186	3,753	₦16.5bn	₦16.3bn	27%	4.1 yr
Rural	1,222	740	₦7.01bn	₦6.78bn	73%	1.4 yr
(Unset)	17	3	₦166k	₦166k	15%	6.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	66,560	7,729	₦5.69bn	₦5.69bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential Informal	40,180	3,099	₦5.43bn	₦5.33bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	14,508	5,942	₦34.8bn	₦33.6bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	11,876	4,185	₦2.81bn	₦2.8bn	25%	4.1 yr
Shed	11,785	2,772	₦357m	₦357m	19%	5.4 yr
Apartment	9,950	975	₦766m	₦766m	27%	4.1 yr
Duplex	4,455	541	₦420m	₦420m	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial	4,218	1,359	₦8.38bn	₦8.34bn	35%	3.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	3,625	994	₦373m	₦373m	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	3,253	594	₦6.61bn	₦6.6bn	35%	3.1 yr
Unknown	478	117	₦715m	₦712m	31%	3.4 yr
Institutional	349	112	₦2.26bn	₦2.26bn	31%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	172,688	28,794	₦73.5bn	₦72.1bn
Farmland	8	0	₦286k	₦286k
Farmyard	1	0	₦6.52k	₦6.52k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	164,292	26,555	₦52.8bn	₦51.4bn	27%	4.1 yr
SME High	7,537	1,978	₦15.2bn	₦15.1bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	868	261	₦5.53bn	₦5.52bn	43%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	96,971	10,787	₦17bn	₦16.9bn
3.0	36,310	9,954	₦38.9bn	₦37.8bn
2.0	18,238	3,153	₦3.41bn	₦3.36bn
0.0	11,247	2,717	₦343m	₦343m
5.0	4,822	1,142	₦6.98bn	₦6.98bn
1.0	3,857	737	₦341m	₦339m
6.0	1,252	304	₦6.46bn	₦6.42bn