Kwara State

Rooftop solar in Asa, Kwara: what the roofs are worth

Asa has 76,486 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.39 GWp of roof capacity. 4% run a generator, and together they spend ₦1.85bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

76,486

Usable roof area

6.21 km²

1.39 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦1.85bn/yr

534 MWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

6.6 yr

Median IRR 15% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Asa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦1.85bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦1.85bn

Lifetime cash saved₦120bn

NPV₦12.1bn

Median IRR15%

Median payback6.6 yr

Unlocked energy4.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity25.7 MWp

Capex₦26.8bn

Year-one energy value₦15.8bn

Lifetime energy value₦746bn

NPV₦116bn

Median IRR67%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Asa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 25.7 MWp
Capital cost: ₦26.8bn
Year 1 savings: ₦15.8bn/yr
NPV: ₦116bn
Median IRR: 67%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Asa pays back quickly

Of the 71,833 buildings in Asa with a modelled payback, 31.1% pay back inside five years and 2.2% inside three.

Create a free account

How much of Asa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Asa consume 6.7 GWh/yr but want 11.4 GWh/yr. The 41% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Create a free account

Electricity billing bands in Asa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Asa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 71,833 buildings with a modelled result out of 76,486 in Asa. 38,531 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years1,584 (2%)

Under 5 years22,334 (31%)

Under 7 years38,466 (54%)

Under 10 years53,618 (75%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%51,283 (67%)

Above 15%38,531 (50%)

Above 20%26,812 (35%)

Above 25%14,781 (19%)

CO₂ avoided

5.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

352634 litres/yr

Energy unlocked

4.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

57.7k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Asa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Asa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	56,981	2,424	₦1.48bn	₦1.48bn	15%	6.4 yr
D	18,584	588	₦356m	₦356m	15%	6.9 yr
C	912	9	₦19.3m	₦19.3m	15%	7.1 yr
B	9	0	₦128k	₦128k	21%	5.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	75,075	2,937	₦1.31bn	₦1.31bn	15%	6.6 yr
Commercial General	725	47	₦288m	₦288m	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	353	7	₦7.97m	₦7.97m	27%	4.1 yr
Anchor	264	23	₦225m	₦225m	41%	2.6 yr
Worship	48	6	₦15.1m	₦15.1m	31%	3.4 yr
Industrial	18	1	₦8.11m	₦8.11m	37%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	1	0	₦26.8k	₦26.8k	33%	3.4 yr
Hospitality	1	0	₦1.83m	₦1.83m	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	1	0	₦16.3k	₦16.3k	31%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	26,383	1,322	₦770m	₦770m	21%	5.1 yr
Under 30m2	22,017	514	₦100m	₦100m	9%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	14,248	582	₦181m	₦181m	17%	6.1 yr
30 50m2	9,928	391	₦79.7m	₦79.7m	15%	6.9 yr
250 1000m2	3,802	207	₦546m	₦546m	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	108	5	₦176m	₦176m	27%	4.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	32,858	2,136	₦1.1bn	₦1.1bn	17%	5.9 yr
Urban	15,144	252	₦317m	₦317m	19%	5.9 yr
Dense Urban	15,137	8	₦112m	₦112m	9%	9.4 yr
Urban Centre	7,549	54	₦137m	₦137m	11%	8.4 yr
Rural	5,725	571	₦189m	₦189m	21%	4.9 yr
(Unset)	73	0	₦876k	₦876k	9%	13.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	25,749	663	₦140m	₦140m	11%	8.6 yr
Residential	17,742	1,352	₦868m	₦868m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	15,260	661	₦150m	₦150m	15%	5.9 yr
Residential Informal	9,770	1	₦52.6m	₦52.6m	11%	8.4 yr
Residential Large	6,546	258	₦96.9m	₦96.9m	15%	7.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	354	7	₦7.99m	₦7.99m	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	338	12	₦117m	₦117m	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	326	34	₦290m	₦290m	31%	3.6 yr
School	179	18	₦33m	₦33m	43%	2.6 yr
Unknown	59	1	₦17.8m	₦17.8m	29%	3.6 yr
Commercial	50	3	₦28.9m	₦28.9m	35%	3.1 yr
Clinic	42	4	₦31.6m	₦31.6m	27%	3.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	76,470	3,021	₦1.85bn	₦1.85bn
Farmland	16	0	₦267k	₦267k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	75,835	2,983	₦1.48bn	₦1.48bn	15%	6.6 yr
SME High	387	15	₦147m	₦147m	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	264	23	₦225m	₦225m	41%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
2.0	28,596	1,505	₦735m	₦735m
0.0	25,046	675	₦140m	₦140m
1.0	10,217	554	₦117m	₦117m
3.0	6,967	281	₦657m	₦657m
4.0	5,601	1	₦142m	₦142m
5.0	53	2	₦49m	₦49m
6.0	6	3	₦14.1m	₦14.1m