Kwara State

Rooftop solar in Ilorin West, Kwara: what the roofs are worth

Ilorin West has 180,196 buildings with a viable rooftop and 4.75 GWp of roof capacity. 15% run a generator, and together they spend ₦60.7bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

180,196

Usable roof area

21.1 km²

4.75 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦60.7bn/yr

34 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ilorin West

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦60.7bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦60.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.63tn

NPV₦486bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy109 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity400 MWp

Capex₦366bn

Year-one energy value₦225bn

Lifetime energy value₦10.5tn

NPV₦1.66tn

Median IRR69%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Ilorin West's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 400 MWp
Capital cost: ₦366bn
Year 1 savings: ₦225bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.66tn
Median IRR: 69%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ilorin West pays back quickly

Of the 173,861 buildings in Ilorin West with a modelled payback, 66.8% pay back inside five years and 14.4% inside three.

Create a free account

How much of Ilorin West's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ilorin West consume 181 GWh/yr but want 290 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Create a free account

Electricity billing bands in Ilorin West

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ilorin West actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 173,861 buildings with a modelled result out of 180,196 in Ilorin West. 144,003 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years25,052 (14%)

Under 5 years116,224 (67%)

Under 7 years143,909 (83%)

Under 10 years159,241 (92%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%157,340 (87%)

Above 15%144,003 (80%)

Above 20%124,596 (69%)

Above 25%98,846 (55%)

CO₂ avoided

150 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

16.6 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

109 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

359k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ilorin West.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ilorin West

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	123,803	13,586	₦34.5bn	₦34.2bn	25%	4.1 yr
C	41,927	10,135	₦17.1bn	₦16.9bn	27%	4.1 yr
A	8,822	783	₦6.91bn	₦6.87bn	25%	4.1 yr
D	5,416	2,104	₦2.15bn	₦2.13bn	27%	4.1 yr
E	228	62	₦75.8m	₦75.8m	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	168,241	23,378	₦27bn	₦26.6bn	25%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	7,257	2,125	₦22.6bn	₦22.5bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	3,453	824	₦430m	₦430m	33%	3.1 yr
Anchor	854	253	₦10.1bn	₦10bn	43%	2.4 yr
Worship	170	36	₦46.7m	₦46.7m	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	104	24	₦341m	₦340m	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	42	11	₦37.4m	₦37.4m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	34	9	₦28.1m	₦28.1m	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	31	8	₦154m	₦154m	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	6	2	₦1.37m	₦1.37m	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	4	0	₦1.82m	₦1.82m	31%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	70,981	10,841	₦21bn	₦20.8bn	27%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	34,670	4,477	₦605m	₦583m	13%	6.9 yr
50 100m2	29,627	4,794	₦2.42bn	₦2.39bn	23%	4.9 yr
250 1000m2	25,345	3,668	₦23.7bn	₦23.5bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	19,175	2,785	₦648m	₦643m	19%	5.6 yr
Over 1000m2	398	105	₦12.4bn	₦12.2bn	29%	3.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	158,967	18,110	₦46.3bn	₦46.1bn	27%	4.1 yr
Urban	11,132	5,244	₦9.48bn	₦9.24bn	27%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	10,090	3,315	₦4.94bn	₦4.84bn	27%	4.1 yr
Dense Urban	5	1	₦160k	₦160k	25%	4.1 yr
(Unset)	2	0	₦49.7k	₦49.7k	13%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	58,005	4,484	₦4.44bn	₦4.42bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	56,689	4,157	₦3.09bn	₦3.03bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	15,413	5,893	₦16.2bn	₦15.9bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	13,977	5,082	₦2.24bn	₦2.24bn	27%	4.1 yr
Shed	11,377	2,918	₦382m	₦382m	21%	5.4 yr
Apartment	8,149	457	₦408m	₦388m	27%	4.1 yr
Duplex	4,622	387	₦235m	₦235m	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	3,489	933	₦9.51bn	₦9.5bn	35%	3.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	3,436	818	₦406m	₦406m	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial	2,711	890	₦10.5bn	₦10.5bn	35%	3.1 yr
Unknown	561	158	₦1.32bn	₦1.32bn	31%	3.4 yr
Institutional	383	116	₦7.51bn	₦7.51bn	31%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	180,123	26,670	₦60.7bn	₦60.2bn
Industrial	52	0	₦2.48m	₦2.48m
Farmyard	11	0	₦175k	₦175k
Farmland	8	0	₦4.67m	₦4.67m
Commercial	2	0	₦204k	₦204k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	172,999	24,553	₦30.6bn	₦30.2bn	25%	4.1 yr
SME High	6,340	1,861	₦19.9bn	₦19.9bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	857	256	₦10.2bn	₦10.1bn	43%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	98,481	7,431	₦18.8bn	₦18.6bn
3.0	43,014	10,875	₦22.4bn	₦22.1bn
2.0	19,848	3,745	₦1.26bn	₦1.26bn
0.0	9,807	2,874	₦363m	₦363m
1.0	4,401	569	₦113m	₦113m
5.0	3,321	879	₦8.63bn	₦8.63bn
6.0	1,324	297	₦9.18bn	₦9.08bn