Kwara State

Rooftop solar in Ifelodun, Kwara: what the roofs are worth

Ifelodun has 86,511 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.33 GWp of roof capacity. 6% run a generator, and together they spend ₦2.26bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

86,511

Usable roof area

5.93 km²

1.33 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦2.26bn/yr

886 MWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

7.9 yr

Median IRR 13% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ifelodun

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦2.26bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦2.23bn

Lifetime cash saved₦141bn

NPV₦14.8bn

Median IRR13%

Median payback7.9 yr

Unlocked energy5.17 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity25.1 MWp

Capex₦27bn

Year-one energy value₦15.8bn

Lifetime energy value₦747bn

NPV₦116bn

Median IRR65%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Ifelodun's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 25.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦27bn
Year 1 savings: ₦15.8bn/yr
NPV: ₦116bn
Median IRR: 65%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ifelodun pays back quickly

Of the 81,734 buildings in Ifelodun with a modelled payback, 25.9% pay back inside five years and 4.0% inside three.

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How much of Ifelodun's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ifelodun consume 7.53 GWh/yr but want 12.7 GWh/yr. The 41% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ifelodun

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ifelodun actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 81,734 buildings with a modelled result out of 86,511 in Ifelodun. 36,524 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,275 (4%)

Under 5 years21,161 (26%)

Under 7 years36,507 (45%)

Under 10 years51,975 (64%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%49,170 (57%)

Above 15%36,524 (42%)

Above 20%25,233 (29%)

Above 25%14,395 (17%)

CO₂ avoided

6.27 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

503092 litres/yr

Energy unlocked

5.17 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

47.6k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ifelodun.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Ifelodun

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	66,209	3,944	₦1.77bn	₦1.74bn	13%	7.6 yr
D	18,167	1,005	₦437m	₦437m	11%	7.9 yr
C	1,814	24	₦29.8m	₦29.8m	13%	6.9 yr
B	321	0	₦21m	₦21m	13%	7.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	85,383	4,803	₦1.48bn	₦1.45bn	11%	7.9 yr
Commercial General	477	64	₦350m	₦350m	31%	3.4 yr
Anchor	352	54	₦324m	₦324m	43%	2.6 yr
Worship	244	52	₦94.7m	₦94.7m	33%	3.1 yr
Industrial	30	0	₦6.71m	₦6.71m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	17	0	₦356k	₦356k	33%	3.4 yr
Hospitality	6	0	₦3.34m	₦3.34m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	2	0	₦599k	₦599k	35%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	39,692	1,020	₦164m	₦164m	7%	14.1 yr
100 250m2	22,717	2,057	₦857m	₦857m	21%	4.9 yr
50 100m2	10,586	913	₦244m	₦213m	15%	6.1 yr
30 50m2	8,652	562	₦81.6m	₦81.6m	15%	6.9 yr
250 1000m2	4,788	407	₦721m	₦721m	27%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	76	14	₦190m	₦190m	27%	3.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
(Unset)	86,074	4,902	₦1.84bn	₦1.84bn	13%	7.9 yr
Urban Centre	287	22	₦34m	₦34m	21%	4.9 yr
Unclassified	96	30	₦261m	₦230m	27%	4.1 yr
Dense Urban	33	1	₦42.6m	₦42.6m	21%	4.9 yr
Rural	19	18	₦83.3m	₦83.3m	79%	1.4 yr
Urban	2	0	₦31.5k	₦31.5k	23%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	45,615	1,430	₦213m	₦213m	9%	13.4 yr
Residential Informal	14,776	777	₦246m	₦246m	19%	5.4 yr
Residential	10,295	1,585	₦747m	₦747m	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	7,828	791	₦193m	₦162m	17%	5.6 yr
Residential Large	4,251	220	₦71.3m	₦71.3m	11%	8.4 yr
Residential Formal	2,617	0	₦8.26m	₦8.26m	9%	8.4 yr
Institutional	515	90	₦485m	₦485m	31%	3.4 yr
School	233	32	₦73.7m	₦73.7m	43%	2.4 yr
Place Of Worship	121	24	₦19.5m	₦19.5m	35%	3.1 yr
Clinic	91	21	₦133m	₦133m	29%	3.9 yr
Unknown	58	2	₦11.1m	₦11.1m	31%	3.6 yr
Industrial	30	0	₦6.71m	₦6.71m	37%	2.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	86,383	4,973	₦2.23bn	₦2.2bn
Industrial	121	0	₦31.8m	₦31.8m
Farmland	7	0	₦10.6k	₦10.6k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	86,119	4,919	₦1.9bn	₦1.87bn	13%	7.9 yr
Enterprise	353	54	₦324m	₦324m	43%	2.6 yr
SME High	39	0	₦33.3m	₦33.3m	35%	3.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	43,428	1,425	₦206m	₦206m
2.0	19,563	2,368	₦900m	₦886m
3.0	9,782	628	₦830m	₦814m
4.0	7,782	46	₦207m	₦207m
1.0	5,936	506	₦84.1m	₦84.1m
5.0	14	0	₦7.42m	₦7.42m
6.0	6	0	₦24.1m	₦24.1m