Kwara State

Rooftop solar in Moro, Kwara: what the roofs are worth

Moro has 101,116 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.21 GWp of roof capacity. 17% run a generator, and together they spend ₦50.6bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

101,116

Usable roof area

5.42 km²

1.21 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦50.6bn/yr

47.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.1 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Moro

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦50.6bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦48.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.54tn

NPV₦389bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.1 yr

Unlocked energy37.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity169 MWp

Capex₦162bn

Year-one energy value₦132bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.22tn

NPV₦1.04tn

Median IRR91%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Moro's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 169 MWp
Capital cost: ₦162bn
Year 1 savings: ₦132bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.04tn
Median IRR: 91%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Moro pays back quickly

Of the 98,274 buildings in Moro with a modelled payback, 37.2% pay back inside five years and 17.3% inside three.

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How much of Moro's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Moro consume 89 GWh/yr but want 127 GWh/yr. The 30% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Moro

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Moro actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 98,274 buildings with a modelled result out of 101,116 in Moro. 41,633 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years17,017 (17%)

Under 5 years36,511 (37%)

Under 7 years41,633 (42%)

Under 10 years46,222 (47%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%45,101 (45%)

Above 15%41,633 (41%)

Above 20%37,977 (38%)

Above 25%33,646 (33%)

CO₂ avoided

86.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

22.1 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

37.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

226k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Moro.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Moro

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	59,675	8,660	₦18.9bn	₦18.8bn	5%	17.1 yr
D	34,213	5,231	₦10.3bn	₦9.93bn	17%	5.9 yr
C	4,003	2,108	₦19.1bn	₦17bn	43%	2.4 yr
B	3,225	783	₦2.35bn	₦2.35bn	27%	3.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	92,654	12,735	₦28.8bn	₦26.4bn	7%	15.4 yr
Commercial General	4,301	2,418	₦12.3bn	₦12.3bn	39%	2.6 yr
Commercial Retail	3,492	1,111	₦392m	₦392m	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	538	438	₦8.98bn	₦8.88bn	73%	1.4 yr
Worship	65	41	₦60.1m	₦60.1m	47%	2.4 yr
Industrial	55	30	₦62.1m	₦62.1m	53%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	8	6	₦4.58m	₦4.58m	45%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	2	2	₦601k	₦601k	35%	2.4 yr
Productive Use	1	1	₦1.4m	₦1.4m	71%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	54,752	3,169	₦602m	₦563m	3%	18.6 yr
100 250m2	18,905	7,167	₦21.8bn	₦20.5bn	27%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	11,820	1,809	₦601m	₦601m	9%	9.9 yr
50 100m2	11,812	2,939	₦2.73bn	₦2.69bn	27%	4.1 yr
250 1000m2	3,724	1,643	₦16.6bn	₦15.5bn	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	103	55	₦8.29bn	₦8.21bn	53%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	67,627	7,119	₦18.2bn	₦17.1bn	5%	17.4 yr
Urban	13,944	4,101	₦15.9bn	₦15.1bn	27%	4.1 yr
Dense Urban	12,919	4,057	₦13.9bn	₦13.2bn	29%	3.6 yr
Rural	4,190	1,027	₦1.63bn	₦1.63bn	9%	13.4 yr
Urban Centre	2,436	478	₦1.01bn	₦1.01bn	21%	4.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	58,151	2,980	₦446m	₦446m	3%	18.4 yr
Residential	13,668	5,469	₦20.5bn	₦19.5bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Small	13,491	3,205	₦2.32bn	₦2.27bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	5,288	321	₦356m	₦314m	23%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	3,493	1,112	₦393m	₦393m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	2,997	1,916	₦9.62bn	₦9.62bn	41%	2.6 yr
Residential Informal	950	688	₦5.09bn	₦3.82bn	53%	2.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	896	206	₦1.22bn	₦1.22bn	35%	3.1 yr
Apartment	754	37	₦35.1m	₦35.1m	25%	4.4 yr
Duplex	343	32	₦19.2m	₦19.2m	27%	4.1 yr
Institutional	339	280	₦7.63bn	₦7.58bn	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	218	186	₦641m	₦641m	83%	1.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	100,802	16,538	₦42bn	₦40.1bn
Industrial	209	147	₦8.53bn	₦7.81bn
Commercial	105	97	₦142m	₦142m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	96,641	14,188	₦30.7bn	₦28.3bn	7%	14.9 yr
SME High	3,902	2,130	₦10.9bn	₦10.9bn	39%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	573	464	₦9.03bn	₦8.93bn	71%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	58,067	2,970	₦440m	₦440m
3.0	20,247	7,656	₦28.4bn	₦27.4bn
2.0	10,025	2,930	₦3.83bn	₦3.72bn
4.0	6,992	909	₦8.59bn	₦7.18bn
1.0	2,701	618	₦387m	₦385m
5.0	2,584	1,361	₦4.9bn	₦4.9bn
6.0	500	338	₦4.1bn	₦4.1bn