Kwara State

Rooftop solar in Oyun, Kwara: what the roofs are worth

Oyun has 38,427 buildings with a viable rooftop and 769 MWp of roof capacity. 28% run a generator, and together they spend ₦29.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

38,427

Usable roof area

3.43 km²

769 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦29.3bn/yr

28.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Oyun

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦29.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦28.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.49tn

NPV₦233bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy17.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity78.1 MWp

Capex₦79.4bn

Year-one energy value₦69.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.3tn

NPV₦557bn

Median IRR87%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Oyun's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 78.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦79.4bn
Year 1 savings: ₦69.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦557bn
Median IRR: 87%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Oyun pays back quickly

Of the 37,431 buildings in Oyun with a modelled payback, 57.6% pay back inside five years and 28.1% inside three.

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How much of Oyun's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Oyun consume 40.9 GWh/yr but want 58.1 GWh/yr. The 30% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Oyun

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Oyun actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 37,431 buildings with a modelled result out of 38,427 in Oyun. 25,379 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years10,523 (28%)

Under 5 years21,563 (58%)

Under 7 years25,366 (68%)

Under 10 years27,761 (74%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%27,307 (71%)

Above 15%25,379 (66%)

Above 20%22,589 (59%)

Above 25%19,483 (51%)

CO₂ avoided

49.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

15.3 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

17.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

165k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Oyun.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Oyun

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	17,157	5,059	₦15.9bn	₦15.5bn	19%	5.1 yr
D	11,922	4,204	₦11.7bn	₦11.6bn	27%	4.1 yr
C	9,348	1,369	₦1.69bn	₦1.69bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	37,326	9,689	₦21.2bn	₦20.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	474	424	₦3.43bn	₦3.43bn	59%	1.9 yr
Anchor	341	276	₦4.43bn	₦4.37bn	73%	1.4 yr
Commercial Retail	164	161	₦77.2m	₦77.2m	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	97	73	₦96.1m	₦96.1m	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	21	8	₦52.1m	₦52.1m	37%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	4	1	₦14.3m	₦14.3m	35%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	12,490	2,146	₦285m	₦274m	5%	16.4 yr
100 250m2	12,080	4,096	₦10.5bn	₦10.1bn	27%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	5,744	1,740	₦1.09bn	₦1.08bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	4,871	1,214	₦305m	₦291m	13%	7.6 yr
250 1000m2	3,121	1,329	₦10.1bn	₦10.1bn	27%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	121	107	₦7.11bn	₦7.01bn	77%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	14,145	2,720	₦12.8bn	₦12.4bn	7%	14.1 yr
Urban	9,009	1,880	₦4.76bn	₦4.71bn	25%	4.1 yr
Urban Centre	7,051	1,078	₦1.69bn	₦1.69bn	23%	4.4 yr
Rural	4,235	3,618	₦8.2bn	₦8.2bn	63%	1.6 yr
Dense Urban	3,986	1,336	₦1.88bn	₦1.85bn	27%	4.1 yr
(Unset)	1	0	₦15.6k	₦15.6k	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	11,863	1,731	₦226m	₦226m	5%	16.1 yr
Residential	8,726	3,749	₦18.5bn	₦18.1bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	7,059	2,657	₦1.32bn	₦1.29bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	7,033	1,300	₦951m	₦951m	23%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	1,317	14	₦49.3m	₦49.3m	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	798	172	₦103m	₦103m	27%	4.1 yr
Duplex	528	66	₦56.4m	₦56.4m	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	206	167	₦3.91bn	₦3.86bn	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial	193	193	₦1.96bn	₦1.96bn	69%	1.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	164	161	₦77.2m	₦77.2m	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	132	107	₦458m	₦458m	83%	1.4 yr
School	114	88	₦201m	₦201m	79%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	38,427	10,632	₦29.3bn	₦28.8bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	37,809	10,081	₦22.3bn	₦21.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	345	279	₦4.46bn	₦4.4bn	73%	1.4 yr
SME High	273	272	₦2.6bn	₦2.6bn	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	12,641	5,171	₦23.1bn	₦22.6bn
0.0	11,856	1,725	₦221m	₦221m
4.0	8,168	1,701	₦3.11bn	₦3.09bn
2.0	4,459	1,529	₦1.87bn	₦1.82bn
1.0	1,221	426	₦221m	₦221m
5.0	77	75	₦728m	₦728m
6.0	5	5	₦115m	₦115m