Kwara State

Rooftop solar in Ilorin East, Kwara: what the roofs are worth

Ilorin East has 83,882 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.01 GWp of roof capacity. 21% run a generator, and together they spend ₦56.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

83,882

Usable roof area

8.93 km²

2.01 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦56.8bn/yr

40.3 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ilorin East

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦56.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦55.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.15tn

NPV₦455bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy70.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity250 MWp

Capex₦233bn

Year-one energy value₦159bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.44tn

NPV₦1.2tn

Median IRR71%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Ilorin East's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 250 MWp
Capital cost: ₦233bn
Year 1 savings: ₦159bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.2tn
Median IRR: 71%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ilorin East pays back quickly

Of the 83,094 buildings in Ilorin East with a modelled payback, 72.0% pay back inside five years and 21.7% inside three.

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How much of Ilorin East's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ilorin East consume 132 GWh/yr but want 202 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ilorin East

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ilorin East actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 83,094 buildings with a modelled result out of 83,882 in Ilorin East. 69,682 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years18,064 (22%)

Under 5 years59,837 (72%)

Under 7 years69,668 (84%)

Under 10 years74,615 (90%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%73,923 (88%)

Above 15%69,682 (83%)

Above 20%63,067 (75%)

Above 25%53,638 (64%)

CO₂ avoided

120 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

21.3 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

70.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

251k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ilorin East.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ilorin East

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	33,067	5,768	₦12.1bn	₦12bn	27%	4.1 yr
D	18,784	5,187	₦12.3bn	₦12bn	27%	4.1 yr
A	11,783	1,789	₦9.7bn	₦9.47bn	27%	4.1 yr
E	11,514	4,265	₦17.4bn	₦17.1bn	25%	4.1 yr
B	8,734	693	₦5.17bn	₦5.16bn	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	74,793	13,519	₦32bn	₦31.1bn	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	5,254	2,446	₦19.1bn	₦19.1bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	2,954	1,396	₦466m	₦466m	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	590	270	₦4.71bn	₦4.6bn	45%	2.4 yr
Worship	126	44	₦87.7m	₦87.7m	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	115	15	₦262m	₦262m	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	19	5	₦51.2m	₦51.2m	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	12	6	₦68.4m	₦68.4m	39%	2.6 yr
Productive Use	11	0	₦2.95m	₦2.95m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	6	1	₦2.14m	₦2.14m	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	2	0	₦1.11m	₦1.11m	31%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	30,811	7,021	₦24.1bn	₦23.7bn	27%	3.9 yr
Under 30m2	19,870	3,561	₦602m	₦598m	13%	7.4 yr
50 100m2	13,399	3,016	₦3.17bn	₦3.03bn	27%	4.1 yr
250 1000m2	10,026	1,994	₦22.6bn	₦22.2bn	27%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	9,587	2,046	₦742m	₦713m	21%	5.1 yr
Over 1000m2	189	64	₦5.56bn	₦5.47bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	63,014	9,282	₦27.1bn	₦27bn	27%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	11,844	3,519	₦14.7bn	₦14bn	23%	4.9 yr
Urban	4,020	1,969	₦4.85bn	₦4.75bn	29%	3.9 yr
Rural	2,688	2,085	₦7.95bn	₦7.85bn	75%	1.4 yr
Dense Urban	2,309	840	₦2.12bn	₦2.1bn	27%	4.1 yr
(Unset)	7	7	₦9.41m	₦9.41m	47%	2.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	22,020	1,781	₦2.46bn	₦2.44bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	16,235	1,769	₦1.18bn	₦1.17bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential	11,306	3,872	₦24.2bn	₦23.6bn	27%	3.9 yr
Shed	10,580	2,504	₦396m	₦396m	11%	8.9 yr
Residential Small	9,460	3,022	₦3.34bn	₦3.08bn	27%	4.1 yr
Apartment	4,553	464	₦319m	₦319m	27%	4.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,955	1,395	₦454m	₦454m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	2,574	1,012	₦8.51bn	₦8.51bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	1,995	1,180	₦8.41bn	₦8.41bn	41%	2.6 yr
Duplex	638	107	₦85.7m	₦78.5m	27%	4.1 yr
Institutional	267	141	₦1.93bn	₦1.93bn	33%	3.4 yr
Unknown	253	83	₦476m	₦476m	31%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	83,783	17,630	₦56.7bn	₦55.6bn
Industrial	93	66	₦102m	₦102m
Farmland	6	6	₦2.84m	₦2.84m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	78,616	15,215	₦34.7bn	₦33.8bn	27%	4.1 yr
SME High	4,677	2,212	₦17.4bn	₦17.4bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	589	275	₦4.7bn	₦4.6bn	45%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	36,150	3,499	₦7.64bn	₦7.36bn
3.0	21,041	6,048	₦25.8bn	₦25.2bn
2.0	10,345	3,143	₦5.93bn	₦5.82bn
0.0	10,102	2,403	₦377m	₦377m
5.0	2,676	1,425	₦6.94bn	₦6.94bn
1.0	2,549	700	₦569m	₦567m
6.0	1,019	484	₦9.5bn	₦9.5bn