Kwara State

Rooftop solar in Offa, Kwara: what the roofs are worth

Offa has 62,359 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.51 GWp of roof capacity. 17% run a generator, and together they spend ₦12.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

62,359

Usable roof area

6.73 km²

1.51 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦12.9bn/yr

9.36 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Offa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦12.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦12.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦723bn

NPV₦101bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy17.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity68.9 MWp

Capex₦69.7bn

Year-one energy value₦49.4bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.33tn

NPV₦379bn

Median IRR69%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Offa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 68.9 MWp
Capital cost: ₦69.7bn
Year 1 savings: ₦49.4bn/yr
NPV: ₦379bn
Median IRR: 69%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Offa pays back quickly

Of the 60,857 buildings in Offa with a modelled payback, 61.3% pay back inside five years and 15.5% inside three.

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How much of Offa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Offa consume 28.8 GWh/yr but want 45.9 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Offa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Offa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 60,857 buildings with a modelled result out of 62,359 in Offa. 48,124 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years9,406 (15%)

Under 5 years37,329 (61%)

Under 7 years48,080 (79%)

Under 10 years54,527 (90%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%53,674 (86%)

Above 15%48,124 (77%)

Above 20%40,372 (65%)

Above 25%31,180 (50%)

CO₂ avoided

27.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.1 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

17.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

117k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Offa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Offa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	42,356	6,521	₦6.91bn	₦6.88bn	25%	4.1 yr
D	13,865	2,943	₦3.55bn	₦3.55bn	25%	4.1 yr
E	6,138	970	₦2.42bn	₦2.37bn	21%	5.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	61,246	10,144	₦8.79bn	₦8.74bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	585	93	₦921m	₦921m	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	367	164	₦3.05bn	₦3.03bn	43%	2.4 yr
Worship	65	17	₦31.5m	₦31.5m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	53	0	₦3.73m	₦3.73m	33%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	23	8	₦59.7m	₦59.7m	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	10	6	₦12.2m	₦12.2m	55%	1.6 yr
Mall Retail	5	1	₦4.47m	₦4.47m	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	3	1	₦922k	₦922k	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	2	0	₦516k	₦516k	33%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	26,342	4,255	₦4.29bn	₦4.24bn	27%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	12,307	1,963	₦163m	₦162m	9%	8.6 yr
50 100m2	10,182	1,598	₦419m	₦419m	21%	5.4 yr
250 1000m2	6,746	1,462	₦5.54bn	₦5.52bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	6,713	1,130	₦158m	₦158m	17%	6.4 yr
Over 1000m2	69	26	₦2.3bn	₦2.3bn	27%	3.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	52,670	8,517	₦9.11bn	₦9.08bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	6,439	895	₦2.16bn	₦2.16bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	3,250	1,022	₦1.61bn	₦1.56bn	25%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	26,429	4,240	₦1.97bn	₦1.97bn	23%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	12,963	810	₦715m	₦715m	23%	4.4 yr
Residential	6,660	1,914	₦5.17bn	₦5.12bn	27%	4.1 yr
Shed	5,306	1,172	₦142m	₦142m	19%	5.6 yr
Residential Small	4,781	1,196	₦440m	₦440m	23%	4.9 yr
Apartment	2,957	482	₦211m	₦211m	27%	4.1 yr
Duplex	2,150	330	₦144m	₦144m	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	320	1	₦332m	₦332m	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	182	85	₦2.39bn	₦2.38bn	31%	3.4 yr
School	112	48	₦121m	₦121m	45%	2.4 yr
Educational Facility	107	53	₦204m	₦204m	45%	2.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	62	21	₦479m	₦458m	29%	3.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	62,359	10,434	₦12.9bn	₦12.8bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	61,633	10,264	₦9.43bn	₦9.38bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	368	165	₦3.06bn	₦3.03bn	43%	2.4 yr
SME High	358	5	₦393m	₦393m	35%	3.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	33,522	4,949	₦4.51bn	₦4.49bn
3.0	16,716	3,402	₦7.47bn	₦7.46bn
2.0	5,826	803	₦435m	₦381m
0.0	4,755	1,121	₦134m	₦134m
1.0	1,369	156	₦27.8m	₦27.8m
5.0	165	2	₦272m	₦272m
6.0	6	1	₦34.4m	₦34.4m