Kwara State

Rooftop solar in Baruten, Kwara: what the roofs are worth

Baruten has 179,606 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.61 GWp of roof capacity. 16% run a generator, and together they spend ₦30.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

179,606

Usable roof area

7.25 km²

1.61 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦30.2bn/yr

29.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

15.1 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Baruten

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦30.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦30bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.58tn

NPV₦245bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback15.1 yr

Unlocked energy26.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity132 MWp

Capex₦139bn

Year-one energy value₦133bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.33tn

NPV₦1.08tn

Median IRR93%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Baruten's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 132 MWp
Capital cost: ₦139bn
Year 1 savings: ₦133bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.08tn
Median IRR: 93%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Baruten pays back quickly

Of the 169,889 buildings in Baruten with a modelled payback, 31.8% pay back inside five years and 16.4% inside three.

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How much of Baruten's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Baruten consume 44.5 GWh/yr but want 70.8 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Baruten

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Baruten actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 169,889 buildings with a modelled result out of 179,606 in Baruten. 63,597 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years27,942 (16%)

Under 5 years54,090 (32%)

Under 7 years63,595 (37%)

Under 10 years72,572 (43%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%70,360 (39%)

Above 15%63,597 (35%)

Above 20%56,604 (32%)

Above 25%48,509 (27%)

CO₂ avoided

54.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

15.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

26.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

374k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Baruten.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Baruten

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	136,948	20,175	₦22bn	₦21.8bn	5%	15.9 yr
D	39,894	7,410	₦7.99bn	₦7.96bn	11%	7.6 yr
C	2,764	467	₦227m	₦227m	21%	5.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	175,405	24,250	₦20.9bn	₦20.9bn	5%	15.4 yr
Commercial General	1,681	1,486	₦4.66bn	₦4.66bn	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	1,136	1,010	₦289m	₦289m	67%	1.6 yr
Anchor	545	484	₦3.1bn	₦2.91bn	61%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	397	394	₦466m	₦466m	69%	1.6 yr
Worship	244	232	₦289m	₦289m	65%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	149	149	₦410m	₦409m	69%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	25	23	₦23.7m	₦23.7m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	24	24	₦34.3m	₦34.3m	63%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	100,125	6,218	₦834m	₦832m	3%	18.9 yr
50 100m2	26,654	6,573	₦3.49bn	₦3.47bn	25%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	25,057	3,692	₦896m	₦896m	9%	13.4 yr
100 250m2	24,764	10,064	₦16.1bn	₦16.1bn	27%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	2,964	1,481	₦7.4bn	₦7.39bn	37%	2.9 yr
Over 1000m2	42	24	₦1.5bn	₦1.32bn	63%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	150,252	12,920	₦14.2bn	₦14.2bn	5%	16.6 yr
Urban	12,240	6,232	₦7.19bn	₦7.18bn	37%	2.6 yr
Rural	10,984	7,122	₦6.74bn	₦6.54bn	69%	1.6 yr
Dense Urban	6,130	1,778	₦2.09bn	₦2.09bn	25%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	112,097	5,159	₦694m	₦694m	3%	18.4 yr
Residential Small	33,907	9,142	₦3.55bn	₦3.52bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	22,714	8,436	₦16.1bn	₦16.1bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Formal	4,043	1,110	₦402m	₦402m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	2,274	304	₦135m	₦135m	21%	4.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,475	1,346	₦656m	₦656m	67%	1.6 yr
Commercial	1,236	1,129	₦3.75bn	₦3.75bn	69%	1.6 yr
Institutional	317	280	₦2.08bn	₦1.9bn	59%	1.9 yr
Apartment	260	65	₦25.8m	₦25.8m	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	203	155	₦323m	₦323m	71%	1.4 yr
Place Of Worship	177	173	₦108m	₦108m	67%	1.6 yr
Clinic	153	146	₦814m	₦805m	55%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	179,111	28,043	₦30.2bn	₦29.9bn
Farmyard	431	1	₦32.8m	₦32.8m
Retail	58	8	₦3.27m	₦3.27m
Commercial	3	0	₦39.5k	₦39.5k
Orchard	3	0	₦6.21k	₦6.21k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	177,622	26,286	₦23.1bn	₦23bn	7%	15.1 yr
SME High	1,507	1,350	₦4.57bn	₦4.56bn	69%	1.6 yr
Enterprise	477	416	₦2.59bn	₦2.41bn	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	112,103	5,178	₦696m	₦696m
3.0	26,637	12,143	₦20.9bn	₦20.7bn
2.0	22,129	6,312	₦4.45bn	₦4.43bn
1.0	13,296	2,648	₦983m	₦982m
4.0	5,015	1,418	₦2.22bn	₦2.22bn
5.0	407	336	₦877m	₦877m
6.0	19	17	₦101m	₦101m