Kwara State

Rooftop solar in Kaiama, Kwara: what the roofs are worth

Kaiama has 136,734 buildings with a viable rooftop and 837 MWp of roof capacity. 6% run a generator, and together they spend ₦13bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

136,734

Usable roof area

3.8 km²

837 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦13bn/yr

11.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

17.4 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kaiama

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦13bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦12.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦660bn

NPV₦95.7bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback17.4 yr

Unlocked energy12.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity75.1 MWp

Capex₦79.6bn

Year-one energy value₦74.2bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.51tn

NPV₦597bn

Median IRR91%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Kaiama's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 75.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦79.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦74.2bn/yr
NPV: ₦597bn
Median IRR: 91%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kaiama pays back quickly

Of the 128,327 buildings in Kaiama with a modelled payback, 18.0% pay back inside five years and 6.2% inside three.

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How much of Kaiama's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kaiama consume 23 GWh/yr but want 35.2 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kaiama

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kaiama actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 128,327 buildings with a modelled result out of 136,734 in Kaiama. 29,296 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years8,020 (6%)

Under 5 years23,149 (18%)

Under 7 years29,303 (23%)

Under 10 years35,112 (27%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%33,734 (25%)

Above 15%29,296 (21%)

Above 20%24,605 (18%)

Above 25%20,416 (15%)

CO₂ avoided

23.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.58 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

12.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

251k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kaiama.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kaiama

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	99,596	3,313	₦4.58bn	₦4.49bn	3%	18.1 yr
D	29,171	3,305	₦6.03bn	₦5.29bn	7%	14.9 yr
C	7,967	1,246	₦2.41bn	₦2.41bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	133,517	5,651	₦8.71bn	₦7.89bn	5%	17.6 yr
Commercial Retail	1,460	1,047	₦205m	₦205m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	1,187	776	₦2.47bn	₦2.47bn	51%	2.1 yr
Anchor	367	252	₦1.5bn	₦1.5bn	55%	1.9 yr
Worship	150	112	₦85.9m	₦85.9m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	50	23	₦40m	₦40m	39%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	3	3	₦5.45m	₦5.45m	57%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	94,955	2,089	₦387m	₦387m	3%	19.1 yr
30 50m2	17,707	1,129	₦398m	₦398m	7%	13.9 yr
50 100m2	13,170	1,680	₦1.53bn	₦1.39bn	27%	4.1 yr
100 250m2	9,296	2,404	₦6.23bn	₦5.54bn	27%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	1,562	543	₦3.79bn	₦3.79bn	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	44	19	₦689m	₦689m	29%	3.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	105,858	1,901	₦3.95bn	₦3.8bn	3%	18.6 yr
Rural	14,187	2,666	₦2.58bn	₦2.14bn	13%	7.4 yr
Dense Urban	10,574	2,364	₦4.78bn	₦4.55bn	25%	4.1 yr
Urban	6,115	933	₦1.71bn	₦1.71bn	17%	6.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	104,307	1,436	₦313m	₦313m	3%	18.9 yr
Residential Small	15,996	2,170	₦1.64bn	₦1.51bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	7,679	2,044	₦6.63bn	₦5.95bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Formal	5,340	1	₦120m	₦120m	17%	5.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,460	1,047	₦205m	₦205m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial	502	423	₦1.02bn	₦1.02bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	428	192	₦1.09bn	₦1.09bn	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	285	190	₦1.09bn	₦1.09bn	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	131	86	₦213m	₦213m	79%	1.4 yr
Apartment	98	0	₦2.54m	₦2.54m	27%	4.1 yr
School	93	58	₦107m	₦107m	75%	1.4 yr
Duplex	74	0	₦1.4m	₦1.4m	23%	4.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	136,734	7,864	₦13bn	₦12.2bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	135,384	6,971	₦9.36bn	₦8.54bn	5%	17.6 yr
SME High	933	618	₦2.12bn	₦2.12bn	51%	2.1 yr
Enterprise	417	275	₦1.54bn	₦1.54bn	53%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	104,123	1,452	₦306m	₦306m
2.0	10,400	1,757	₦2.01bn	₦1.83bn
1.0	8,709	1,628	₦614m	₦614m
3.0	8,599	2,900	₦8.64bn	₦7.99bn
4.0	4,782	119	₦1.1bn	₦1.1bn
5.0	118	8	₦339m	₦339m
6.0	3	0	₦9.26m	₦9.26m