Kwara State

Rooftop solar in Irepodun, Kwara: what the roofs are worth

Irepodun has 55,525 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.33 GWp of roof capacity. 1% run a generator, and together they spend ₦730m a year on energy.

Viable buildings

55,525

Usable roof area

5.93 km²

1.33 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦730m/yr

39.5 MWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

7.4 yr

Median IRR 13% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Irepodun

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦730m/yr

Year-one cash saved₦730m

Lifetime cash saved₦51.1bn

NPV₦3.76bn

Median IRR13%

Median payback7.4 yr

Unlocked energy2.49 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity15.6 MWp

Capex₦16.6bn

Year-one energy value₦9.56bn

Lifetime energy value₦452bn

NPV₦70bn

Median IRR65%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Irepodun's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 15.6 MWp
Capital cost: ₦16.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦9.56bn/yr
NPV: ₦70bn
Median IRR: 65%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Irepodun pays back quickly

Of the 52,376 buildings in Irepodun with a modelled payback, 19.3% pay back inside five years and 0.7% inside three.

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How much of Irepodun's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Irepodun consume 3.36 GWh/yr but want 5.85 GWh/yr. The 43% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Irepodun

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Irepodun actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 52,376 buildings with a modelled result out of 55,525 in Irepodun. 24,167 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years346 (1%)

Under 5 years10,118 (19%)

Under 7 years24,102 (46%)

Under 10 years37,379 (71%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%35,573 (64%)

Above 15%24,167 (44%)

Above 20%13,576 (24%)

Above 25%5,438 (10%)

CO₂ avoided

2.55 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

20589 litres/yr

Energy unlocked

2.49 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

40.6k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Irepodun.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Irepodun

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	48,989	658	₦647m	₦647m	13%	7.4 yr
D	6,525	0	₦82.1m	₦82.1m	15%	6.9 yr
C	11	0	₦307k	₦307k	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	54,914	643	₦421m	₦421m	13%	7.4 yr
Commercial General	315	8	₦145m	₦145m	31%	3.6 yr
Anchor	241	6	₦139m	₦139m	41%	2.6 yr
Worship	32	0	₦6.67m	₦6.67m	31%	3.4 yr
Hospitality	8	0	₦16.4m	₦16.4m	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	6	0	₦662k	₦662k	35%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	4	1	₦216k	₦216k	33%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	3	0	₦245k	₦245k	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	2	0	₦137k	₦137k	33%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	18,849	191	₦234m	₦234m	17%	6.4 yr
Under 30m2	15,789	143	₦58.6m	₦58.6m	9%	9.6 yr
50 100m2	7,887	120	₦42.4m	₦42.4m	9%	8.6 yr
250 1000m2	7,200	126	₦257m	₦257m	23%	4.6 yr
30 50m2	5,674	68	₦32.2m	₦32.2m	13%	7.9 yr
Over 1000m2	126	10	₦105m	₦105m	27%	4.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
(Unset)	55,426	654	₦717m	₦717m	13%	7.4 yr
Unclassified	86	2	₦8.37m	₦8.37m	19%	5.9 yr
Urban	13	2	₦4.42m	₦4.42m	27%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	20,123	197	₦80.5m	₦80.5m	9%	9.1 yr
Residential Informal	17,564	85	₦143m	₦143m	15%	6.6 yr
Residential	8,011	222	₦145m	₦145m	21%	5.1 yr
Residential Small	4,850	108	₦24.7m	₦24.7m	9%	8.4 yr
Residential Large	4,366	31	₦27.5m	₦27.5m	13%	8.1 yr
Institutional	251	6	₦167m	₦167m	31%	3.4 yr
School	151	5	₦31.1m	₦31.1m	43%	2.4 yr
Unknown	79	1	₦12.4m	₦12.4m	31%	3.6 yr
Clinic	52	1	₦29.6m	₦29.6m	27%	3.9 yr
Place Of Worship	19	0	₦2.62m	₦2.62m	33%	3.1 yr
Hospital	18	0	₦11.6m	₦11.6m	27%	3.9 yr
Compound University	11	0	₦28.6m	₦28.6m	31%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	55,518	658	₦730m	₦730m
Farmyard	5	0	₦102k	₦102k
Farmland	2	0	₦3.31k	₦3.31k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	55,270	651	₦580m	₦580m	13%	7.4 yr
Enterprise	241	6	₦139m	₦139m	41%	2.6 yr
SME High	14	1	₦10.4m	₦10.4m	33%	3.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	17,181	176	₦68.8m	₦68.8m
2.0	15,421	205	₦187m	₦187m
3.0	11,533	153	₦251m	₦251m
4.0	6,416	55	₦177m	₦177m
1.0	4,968	69	₦26.8m	₦26.8m
6.0	4	0	₦18.9m	₦18.9m
5.0	2	0	₦248k	₦248k