Kwara State

Rooftop solar in Pategi, Kwara: what the roofs are worth

Pategi has 50,674 buildings with a viable rooftop and 627 MWp of roof capacity. 21% run a generator, and together they spend ₦36.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

50,674

Usable roof area

2.81 km²

627 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦36.3bn/yr

31.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.4 yr

Median IRR 19% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Pategi

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦36.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦33.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.69tn

NPV₦273bn

Median IRR19%

Median payback5.4 yr

Unlocked energy17.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity93.5 MWp

Capex₦99.3bn

Year-one energy value₦100bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.75tn

NPV₦815bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Pategi's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 93.5 MWp
Capital cost: ₦99.3bn
Year 1 savings: ₦100bn/yr
NPV: ₦815bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Pategi pays back quickly

Of the 49,316 buildings in Pategi with a modelled payback, 47.6% pay back inside five years and 21.3% inside three.

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How much of Pategi's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Pategi consume 42.8 GWh/yr but want 60.2 GWh/yr. The 29% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Pategi

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Pategi actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 49,316 buildings with a modelled result out of 50,674 in Pategi. 27,771 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years10,507 (21%)

Under 5 years23,469 (48%)

Under 7 years27,766 (56%)

Under 10 years32,152 (65%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%30,959 (61%)

Above 15%27,771 (55%)

Above 20%24,798 (49%)

Above 25%20,995 (41%)

CO₂ avoided

57.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

19.5 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

17.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

285k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Pategi.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Pategi

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	34,917	6,863	₦24.8bn	₦22bn	17%	6.1 yr
D	15,757	3,606	₦11.4bn	₦11.3bn	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	49,771	9,752	₦33.8bn	₦30.9bn	19%	5.6 yr
Anchor	325	266	₦1.44bn	₦1.41bn	81%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	293	199	₦901m	₦901m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	196	175	₦118m	₦118m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	81	71	₦17m	₦17m	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial	4	4	₦5.34m	₦5.34m	69%	1.4 yr
Hospitality	3	1	₦22.2m	₦22.2m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	1	1	₦498k	₦498k	67%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	18,487	2,144	₦336m	₦336m	5%	16.9 yr
50 100m2	11,944	2,637	₦4.83bn	₦4.67bn	27%	4.1 yr
100 250m2	9,666	3,354	₦19.4bn	₦17.2bn	27%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	9,147	1,674	₦926m	₦901m	11%	9.1 yr
250 1000m2	1,381	635	₦9.98bn	₦9.43bn	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	49	25	₦822m	₦822m	55%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	28,183	4,689	₦19.2bn	₦16.8bn	9%	12.9 yr
Rural	9,236	2,951	₦6.28bn	₦5.73bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	7,909	1,427	₦5.74bn	₦5.74bn	23%	4.6 yr
Urban	5,346	1,402	₦5.05bn	₦5.05bn	21%	4.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	21,244	2,476	₦320m	₦320m	5%	15.9 yr
Residential Small	14,265	4,002	₦6.67bn	₦6.48bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	6,713	2,872	₦26.2bn	₦23.5bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Formal	6,665	398	₦500m	₦500m	15%	6.4 yr
Residential Informal	815	0	₦78.5m	₦78.5m	27%	4.1 yr
Institutional	238	203	₦980m	₦980m	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	132	113	₦407m	₦407m	87%	1.1 yr
School	100	86	₦201m	₦201m	85%	1.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	95	46	₦136m	₦136m	37%	2.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	81	71	₦17m	₦17m	63%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	67	61	₦24.6m	₦24.6m	67%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	65	57	₦17.9m	₦17.9m	65%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	50,673	10,469	₦36.3bn	₦33.3bn
Farmland	1	0	₦1.56k	₦1.56k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	50,239	10,143	₦34.6bn	₦31.7bn	19%	5.4 yr
Enterprise	329	270	₦1.45bn	₦1.41bn	81%	1.4 yr
SME High	106	56	₦198m	₦198m	61%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	21,248	2,481	₦320m	₦320m
2.0	10,689	3,530	₦11.1bn	₦9.65bn
3.0	9,386	3,014	₦23bn	₦21.5bn
4.0	5,036	328	₦656m	₦656m
1.0	4,281	1,112	₦1.18bn	₦1.17bn
5.0	33	4	₦45.3m	₦45.3m
6.0	1	0	₦1.21m	₦1.21m