Kwara State

Rooftop solar in Edu, Kwara: what the roofs are worth

Edu has 97,861 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.21 GWp of roof capacity. 18% run a generator, and together they spend ₦67.6bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

97,861

Usable roof area

5.43 km²

1.21 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦67.6bn/yr

60.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.9 yr

Median IRR 19% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Edu

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦67.6bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦62.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.21tn

NPV₦509bn

Median IRR19%

Median payback5.9 yr

Unlocked energy33.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity173 MWp

Capex₦182bn

Year-one energy value₦174bn

Lifetime energy value₦8.25tn

NPV₦1.41tn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Edu's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 173 MWp
Capital cost: ₦182bn
Year 1 savings: ₦174bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.41tn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Edu pays back quickly

Of the 96,946 buildings in Edu with a modelled payback, 44.8% pay back inside five years and 18.0% inside three.

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How much of Edu's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Edu consume 88.5 GWh/yr but want 122 GWh/yr. The 28% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Edu

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Edu actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 96,946 buildings with a modelled result out of 97,861 in Edu. 53,133 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years17,470 (18%)

Under 5 years43,421 (45%)

Under 7 years53,125 (55%)

Under 10 years61,774 (64%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%59,151 (60%)

Above 15%53,133 (54%)

Above 20%46,265 (47%)

Above 25%38,186 (39%)

CO₂ avoided

108 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

35 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

33.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

487k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Edu.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Edu

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	55,440	8,067	₦35.7bn	₦32bn	9%	9.9 yr
D	37,569	7,619	₦28.1bn	₦27.2bn	23%	4.6 yr
C	4,852	1,777	₦3.79bn	₦3.79bn	27%	3.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	96,840	16,723	₦58.1bn	₦53.6bn	17%	5.9 yr
Anchor	487	381	₦8.4bn	₦8.23bn	67%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	310	201	₦1bn	₦1bn	53%	2.1 yr
Worship	168	125	₦133m	₦133m	59%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	16	11	₦7.99m	₦7.99m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	12	9	₦2.83m	₦2.83m	67%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	12	7	₦1.69m	₦1.69m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	11	6	₦13.8m	₦12.8m	59%	1.9 yr
Mall Retail	4	0	₦1.59m	₦1.59m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	1	0	₦104k	₦104k	35%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	36,367	3,795	₦523m	₦522m	5%	16.1 yr
30 50m2	21,418	2,748	₦1.13bn	₦1.03bn	11%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	20,070	3,843	₦5.3bn	₦4.82bn	27%	4.1 yr
100 250m2	16,625	5,341	₦27.7bn	₦25bn	27%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	3,203	1,609	₦22bn	₦20.7bn	41%	2.6 yr
Over 1000m2	178	127	₦11bn	₦10.8bn	63%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	53,843	6,561	₦37.6bn	₦33.7bn	9%	13.1 yr
Rural	26,183	5,242	₦11.1bn	₦10.4bn	19%	5.6 yr
Dense Urban	12,585	3,368	₦8.14bn	₦8.08bn	27%	4.1 yr
Urban	5,249	2,292	₦10.9bn	₦10.8bn	27%	3.9 yr
(Unset)	1	0	₦1.34k	₦1.34k	3%	19.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	45,784	4,490	₦581m	₦581m	7%	15.1 yr
Residential Small	23,969	5,418	₦7.31bn	₦6.63bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	14,627	5,069	₦47.4bn	₦43.6bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Informal	7,872	1,185	₦2.01bn	₦2.01bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	4,580	561	₦763m	₦763m	27%	4.1 yr
Institutional	327	262	₦7.98bn	₦7.89bn	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	185	151	₦424m	₦424m	83%	1.4 yr
School	121	98	₦215m	₦215m	79%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	73	49	₦530m	₦462m	49%	2.1 yr
Place Of Worship	62	45	₦9.26m	₦9.26m	61%	1.6 yr
Clinic	58	36	₦255m	₦248m	49%	2.1 yr
Worship Center	55	41	₦15.4m	₦15.4m	61%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	97,804	17,459	₦67.6bn	₦62.9bn
Industrial	39	4	₦4.63m	₦4.63m
Commercial	18	0	₦512k	₦512k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	97,304	17,068	₦59.2bn	₦54.7bn	19%	5.9 yr
Enterprise	495	385	₦8.41bn	₦8.24bn	67%	1.6 yr
SME High	62	10	₦29m	₦29m	35%	3.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	45,452	4,491	₦577m	₦577m
3.0	20,315	6,499	₦51.4bn	₦49.3bn
2.0	19,330	4,653	₦11.8bn	₦9.88bn
1.0	8,022	1,176	₦1.65bn	₦1.18bn
4.0	4,739	643	₦2.15bn	₦2bn
5.0	3	1	₦2.2m	₦2.2m