Kwara State

Rooftop solar in Oke Ero, Kwara: what the roofs are worth

Oke Ero has 16,973 buildings with a viable rooftop and 380 MWp of roof capacity. 23% run a generator, and together they spend ₦13bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

16,973

Usable roof area

1.69 km²

380 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦13bn/yr

10.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Oke Ero

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦13bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦12.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦721bn

NPV₦108bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy17.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity66.5 MWp

Capex₦62.3bn

Year-one energy value₦50.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.4tn

NPV₦401bn

Median IRR91%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Oke Ero's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 66.5 MWp
Capital cost: ₦62.3bn
Year 1 savings: ₦50.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦401bn
Median IRR: 91%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Oke Ero pays back quickly

Of the 16,487 buildings in Oke Ero with a modelled payback, 68.2% pay back inside five years and 25.1% inside three.

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How much of Oke Ero's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Oke Ero consume 27.6 GWh/yr but want 44.8 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Oke Ero

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Oke Ero actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 16,487 buildings with a modelled result out of 16,973 in Oke Ero. 12,976 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years4,145 (25%)

Under 5 years11,248 (68%)

Under 7 years12,974 (79%)

Under 10 years13,729 (83%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%13,583 (80%)

Above 15%12,976 (76%)

Above 20%11,763 (69%)

Above 25%10,473 (62%)

CO₂ avoided

27.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.13 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

17.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

97.3k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Oke Ero.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Oke Ero

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	9,513	1,997	₦7.25bn	₦7.13bn	27%	3.9 yr
E	5,826	1,514	₦4.58bn	₦4.52bn	23%	4.1 yr
C	1,634	455	₦1.15bn	₦1.15bn	27%	3.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	14,707	2,746	₦6.63bn	₦6.44bn	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	1,479	769	₦4.11bn	₦4.11bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	626	316	₦77.8m	₦77.8m	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	136	120	₦2.15bn	₦2.15bn	65%	1.6 yr
Worship	24	14	₦16.2m	₦16.2m	41%	2.4 yr
Industrial	1	1	₦1.21m	₦1.21m	71%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	6,195	1,607	₦4.94bn	₦4.89bn	27%	3.9 yr
Under 30m2	4,952	788	₦104m	₦103m	7%	13.6 yr
50 100m2	2,409	546	₦476m	₦473m	27%	4.1 yr
250 1000m2	1,800	647	₦5.87bn	₦5.75bn	29%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	1,598	371	₦102m	₦101m	21%	5.4 yr
Over 1000m2	19	7	₦1.49bn	₦1.49bn	29%	3.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	6,058	1,132	₦2.93bn	₦2.93bn	27%	3.9 yr
Urban	4,584	1,397	₦4.84bn	₦4.71bn	27%	3.9 yr
Unclassified	4,151	380	₦2.78bn	₦2.72bn	5%	15.4 yr
Rural	2,180	1,057	₦2.44bn	₦2.44bn	27%	3.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	4,484	565	₦67.4m	₦67.4m	5%	15.1 yr
Residential	4,302	905	₦5.29bn	₦5.11bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Small	2,723	610	₦522m	₦516m	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	2,234	144	₦162m	₦162m	25%	4.1 yr
Commercial	960	560	₦2.6bn	₦2.6bn	37%	2.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	626	316	₦77.8m	₦77.8m	35%	3.1 yr
Residential Informal	503	497	₦553m	₦553m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	445	142	₦1.18bn	₦1.18bn	37%	2.9 yr
Apartment	261	13	₦19.5m	₦19.5m	27%	4.1 yr
Duplex	200	12	₦13.5m	₦13.5m	27%	4.1 yr
Institutional	86	75	₦1.67bn	₦1.67bn	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	48	43	₦289m	₦289m	81%	1.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	16,973	3,966	₦13bn	₦12.8bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	15,431	3,143	₦7.05bn	₦6.86bn	27%	4.1 yr
SME High	1,405	702	₦3.78bn	₦3.78bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	137	121	₦2.15bn	₦2.15bn	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	6,104	1,645	₦7.87bn	₦7.74bn
0.0	4,395	505	₦54.9m	₦54.9m
4.0	3,306	490	₦2.24bn	₦2.24bn
2.0	1,784	637	₦553m	₦498m
1.0	738	319	₦78.5m	₦78.5m
5.0	427	224	₦893m	₦893m
6.0	219	146	₦1.29bn	₦1.29bn