Kwara State

Rooftop solar in Isin, Kwara: what the roofs are worth

Isin has 17,720 buildings with a viable rooftop and 340 MWp of roof capacity. 21% run a generator, and together they spend ₦7.16bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

17,720

Usable roof area

1.51 km²

340 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦7.16bn/yr

6.42 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Isin

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦7.16bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦7.16bn

Lifetime cash saved₦388bn

NPV₦59.8bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy7.08 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity33.8 MWp

Capex₦34.3bn

Year-one energy value₦31.5bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.49tn

NPV₦253bn

Median IRR91%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Isin's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 33.8 MWp
Capital cost: ₦34.3bn
Year 1 savings: ₦31.5bn/yr
NPV: ₦253bn
Median IRR: 91%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Isin pays back quickly

Of the 16,656 buildings in Isin with a modelled payback, 56.6% pay back inside five years and 22.7% inside three.

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How much of Isin's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Isin consume 11.7 GWh/yr but want 18.7 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Isin

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Isin actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 16,656 buildings with a modelled result out of 17,720 in Isin. 11,402 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,787 (23%)

Under 5 years9,430 (57%)

Under 7 years11,398 (68%)

Under 10 years12,431 (75%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%12,223 (69%)

Above 15%11,402 (64%)

Above 20%9,967 (56%)

Above 25%8,539 (48%)

CO₂ avoided

13.7 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.54 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

7.08 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

87.9k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Isin.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Isin

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	9,001	2,765	₦5.74bn	₦5.74bn	25%	4.1 yr
D	8,719	1,032	₦1.42bn	₦1.42bn	23%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	16,824	2,981	₦5.04bn	₦5.04bn	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial General	382	345	₦1.29bn	₦1.29bn	47%	2.1 yr
Commercial Retail	261	253	₦38.9m	₦38.9m	43%	2.4 yr
Anchor	175	141	₦657m	₦657m	57%	1.9 yr
Worship	74	74	₦125m	₦125m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	3	3	₦8.79m	₦8.79m	79%	1.4 yr
Hospitality	1	0	₦54.9k	₦54.9k	31%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	5,577	804	₦94.1m	₦94.1m	3%	16.9 yr
100 250m2	5,452	1,384	₦2.81bn	₦2.81bn	27%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	3,024	717	₦425m	₦425m	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	2,166	398	₦98.8m	₦98.8m	11%	8.9 yr
250 1000m2	1,489	490	₦3.49bn	₦3.49bn	27%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	12	4	₦248m	₦248m	29%	2.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	6,840	1,344	₦2.82bn	₦2.82bn	5%	13.9 yr
Rural	6,158	2,031	₦3.26bn	₦3.26bn	27%	4.1 yr
Urban	3,169	303	₦943m	₦943m	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	1,553	119	₦146m	₦146m	21%	4.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	5,899	690	₦79.7m	₦79.7m	5%	16.6 yr
Residential	4,449	1,303	₦4.41bn	₦4.41bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Small	3,632	891	₦450m	₦450m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	2,522	88	₦88.6m	₦88.6m	19%	5.4 yr
Commercial	269	261	₦968m	₦968m	47%	2.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	261	253	₦38.9m	₦38.9m	43%	2.4 yr
Apartment	196	4	₦5.44m	₦5.44m	25%	4.1 yr
Duplex	126	5	₦4.64m	₦4.64m	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	117	99	₦423m	₦423m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	68	53	₦146m	₦146m	79%	1.4 yr
School	47	41	₦93m	₦93m	83%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	31	25	₦280m	₦280m	49%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	17,720	3,797	₦7.16bn	₦7.16bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	17,266	3,392	₦5.51bn	₦5.51bn	23%	4.4 yr
SME High	276	261	₦984m	₦984m	47%	2.4 yr
Enterprise	178	144	₦666m	₦666m	57%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	5,992	1,720	₦5.12bn	₦5.12bn
0.0	5,868	691	₦79.1m	₦79.1m
4.0	2,570	128	₦232m	₦232m
2.0	2,433	866	₦693m	₦693m
1.0	600	150	₦67.2m	₦67.2m
5.0	183	175	₦254m	₦254m
6.0	74	67	₦720m	₦720m