Nigeria rooftop solar data

Rooftop solar in Edo State: buildings, spend and payback

1,425,227 buildings in Edo State carry a viable rooftop. Together they spend ₦1.06tn a year on grid power and generator fuel, and 40% of them run a generator.

Viable buildings

1,425,227

Usable roof area

178 km²

40 GWp of roof capacity

Current energy spend

₦1.06tn/yr

881 GWh/yr from generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Edo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦1.06tn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦1.04tn

Lifetime cash saved₦55.2tn

NPV₦8.04tn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy823 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity3.61 GWp

Capex₦3.5tn

Year-one energy value₦2.45tn

Lifetime energy value₦115tn

NPV₦18.6tn

Median IRR67%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Edo State's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 3.61 GWp
Capital cost: ₦3.5tn
Year 1 savings: ₦2.45tn/yr
NPV: ₦18.6tn
Median IRR: 67%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Edo State pays back quickly

Of the 1,402,895 buildings in Edo State with a modelled payback, 71.2% pay back inside five years and 35.0% inside three.

Payback under 5 years

71.2%

Payback under 3 years

35.0%

IRR above 20%

73.3%

Under 3 years · 35%3 – 5 years · 36%5 – 7 years · 12%7 – 10 years · 7%Over 10 years · 11%

Coverage: 98% of buildings in Edo State produced a payback figure. Buildings with no viable scenario are excluded rather than counted as zero.

How much of Edo State's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Edo State consume 1.96 TWh/yr but want 2.78 TWh/yr. The 30% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Met today · 70%Suppressed · 30%

Energy wanted

2.78 TWh/yr

Energy consumed

1.96 TWh/yr

Unmet demand

823 GWh/yr

Modelled latent demand, not metered consumption. It is the load buildings would run given affordable, available supply.

How many rooftops in Edo State actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 1,402,895 buildings with a modelled result out of 1,425,227 in Edo State. 1,162,633 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years491,031 (35%)

Under 5 years998,396 (71%)

Under 7 years1,161,363 (83%)

Under 10 years1,253,209 (89%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%1,238,552 (87%)

Above 15%1,162,633 (82%)

Above 20%1,044,344 (73%)

Above 25%763,476 (54%)

Electricity billing bands in Edo State

Loading band economics…

What a delivered unit costs, by DisCo

Grid tariff plus the generator running that fills the gap, blended across every building the DisCo serves. Ranked most expensive first — the higher the all-in rate, the stronger the case for solar.

Loading the league table…

Ikeja and Eko are reported together as Lagos. Rates are modelled blends of billed grid energy and generator running, not published tariffs.

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Edo State.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Where the opportunity sits

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	439,886	206,277	₦271bn	₦269bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	362,748	116,107	₦363bn	₦345bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	330,983	130,532	₦187bn	₦185bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	146,464	53,718	₦133bn	₦131bn	25%	4.1 yr
A	145,146	61,522	₦108bn	₦106bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	1,367,048	537,390	₦717bn	₦697bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	31,698	16,795	₦163bn	₦162bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	15,142	7,101	₦2.96bn	₦2.96bn	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	6,534	4,482	₦164bn	₦159bn	51%	2.1 yr
Worship	2,135	1,116	₦2.68bn	₦2.67bn	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	1,053	618	₦4.89bn	₦4.78bn	39%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	977	409	₦6.14bn	₦5.89bn	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	294	128	₦570m	₦564m	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	162	52	₦600m	₦593m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	157	54	₦196m	₦196m	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	27	11	₦49.3m	₦49.3m	31%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	459,114	190,852	₦326bn	₦318bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	319,620	113,479	₦11.9bn	₦11.7bn	15%	6.4 yr
250 1000m2	299,791	142,840	₦521bn	₦508bn	27%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	193,126	66,952	₦32.9bn	₦31.8bn	25%	4.6 yr
30 50m2	151,005	52,660	₦10.3bn	₦10.1bn	19%	5.4 yr
Over 1000m2	2,571	1,373	₦160bn	₦156bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	741,711	313,882	₦398bn	₦395bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	231,753	113,680	₦270bn	₦262bn	29%	3.6 yr
Unclassified	222,738	51,009	₦152bn	₦142bn	21%	5.1 yr
Dense Urban	145,350	57,418	₦157bn	₦154bn	25%	4.1 yr
Rural	83,675	32,167	₦85.4bn	₦82.5bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	390,991	181,306	₦131bn	₦131bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	306,551	132,649	₦472bn	₦453bn	25%	4.1 yr
Shed	233,194	71,371	₦9.72bn	₦9.72bn	17%	6.4 yr
Residential Informal	192,419	58,251	₦49.2bn	₦49.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	189,997	67,471	₦40.1bn	₦38.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	40,412	19,763	₦11.6bn	₦11.6bn	27%	4.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	15,230	7,150	₦2.95bn	₦2.95bn	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial	14,987	8,423	₦88.4bn	₦88bn	39%	2.9 yr
Duplex	13,466	6,578	₦4.02bn	₦4.02bn	25%	4.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	9,406	4,548	₦43.6bn	₦43.3bn	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	3,748	2,645	₦139bn	₦136bn	43%	2.4 yr
Unknown	3,111	1,242	₦9.32bn	₦9.31bn	31%	3.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	1,421,796	566,320	₦998bn	₦974bn
Industrial	2,058	1,194	₦61.4bn	₦59.5bn
Orchard	931	338	₦738m	₦738m
Commercial	304	230	₦1.47bn	₦1.47bn
Retail	77	45	₦61.3m	₦61.3m
Farmland	61	29	₦31.8m	₦31.8m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	1,392,963	550,123	₦760bn	₦740bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	25,293	13,276	₦136bn	₦135bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	6,971	4,757	₦166bn	₦161bn	49%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	500,739	221,020	₦326bn	₦323bn
3.0	474,393	202,577	₦584bn	₦564bn
0.0	227,755	69,298	₦9.31bn	₦9.31bn
2.0	162,629	54,656	₦37.1bn	₦35.1bn
1.0	41,933	12,375	₦3.88bn	₦3.62bn
5.0	11,312	4,910	₦39.2bn	₦38.9bn
6.0	6,466	3,320	₦63bn	₦62.4bn