Edo State

Rooftop solar in Esan North-East, Edo: what the roofs are worth

Esan North-East has 67,275 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.71 GWp of roof capacity. 17% run a generator, and together they spend ₦16.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

67,275

Usable roof area

7.6 km²

1.71 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦16.9bn/yr

12.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Esan North-East

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦16.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦16.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦939bn

NPV₦131bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy20.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity86.4 MWp

Capex₦87.8bn

Year-one energy value₦63bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.98tn

NPV₦485bn

Median IRR67%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Esan North-East's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 86.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦87.8bn
Year 1 savings: ₦63bn/yr
NPV: ₦485bn
Median IRR: 67%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Esan North-East pays back quickly

Of the 66,119 buildings in Esan North-East with a modelled payback, 61.4% pay back inside five years and 16.4% inside three.

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How much of Esan North-East's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Esan North-East consume 35.3 GWh/yr but want 55.8 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Esan North-East

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Esan North-East actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 66,119 buildings with a modelled result out of 67,275 in Esan North-East. 54,397 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years10,814 (16%)

Under 5 years40,626 (61%)

Under 7 years54,293 (82%)

Under 10 years60,092 (91%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%59,371 (88%)

Above 15%54,397 (81%)

Above 20%44,273 (66%)

Above 25%28,576 (42%)

CO₂ avoided

35.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

7.14 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

20.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

155k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Esan North-East.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Esan North-East

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	44,858	7,660	₦7.92bn	₦7.89bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	8,497	82	₦619m	₦619m	21%	5.1 yr
D	7,278	1,478	₦3.47bn	₦3.45bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	6,642	2,282	₦4.84bn	₦4.82bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	66,020	11,095	₦12.4bn	₦12.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	585	175	₦2.07bn	₦2.07bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	314	12	₦28.9m	₦28.9m	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	243	155	₦1.88bn	₦1.84bn	47%	2.1 yr
Worship	79	44	₦245m	₦234m	39%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	16	10	₦198m	₦198m	37%	2.4 yr
Industrial	12	8	₦33.5m	₦33.5m	57%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	3	3	₦2.65m	₦2.65m	67%	1.6 yr
Mall Retail	3	0	₦31.4m	₦31.4m	35%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	21,750	3,938	₦5.81bn	₦5.81bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	16,708	2,493	₦271m	₦271m	15%	6.6 yr
250 1000m2	11,599	2,284	₦8.38bn	₦8.32bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	9,385	1,556	₦578m	₦578m	21%	5.1 yr
30 50m2	7,733	1,189	₦207m	₦207m	19%	5.9 yr
Over 1000m2	100	42	₦1.61bn	₦1.6bn	27%	4.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	53,897	8,203	₦9.63bn	₦9.58bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	9,281	2,482	₦5.65bn	₦5.63bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	3,861	647	₦1.36bn	₦1.36bn	23%	4.9 yr
Rural	236	170	₦217m	₦217m	73%	1.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	16,332	1,838	₦1.12bn	₦1.12bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Informal	13,516	1,592	₦1.26bn	₦1.26bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	13,327	3,392	₦8.87bn	₦8.85bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	12,418	2,202	₦288m	₦288m	19%	5.9 yr
Residential Small	8,191	1,848	₦708m	₦708m	23%	4.9 yr
Apartment	1,771	167	₦91.3m	₦91.3m	25%	4.4 yr
Duplex	465	56	₦27.5m	₦27.5m	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	366	71	₦1.23bn	₦1.23bn	35%	3.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	314	12	₦28.9m	₦28.9m	33%	3.4 yr
Institutional	152	103	₦1.46bn	₦1.45bn	43%	2.6 yr
Educational Facility	88	60	₦405m	₦405m	59%	1.9 yr
School	70	43	₦140m	₦140m	49%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	67,249	11,502	₦16.8bn	₦16.8bn
Retail	26	0	₦24.2m	₦24.2m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	66,592	11,254	₦13.4bn	₦13.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	434	86	₦1.59bn	₦1.59bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	249	162	₦1.89bn	₦1.85bn	47%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	25,110	2,693	₦3.54bn	₦3.52bn
3.0	21,856	5,026	₦11bn	₦11bn
0.0	11,379	2,195	₦274m	₦274m
2.0	6,673	1,344	₦753m	₦753m
1.0	1,972	202	₦64.4m	₦64.4m
5.0	235	37	₦840m	₦840m
6.0	50	5	₦344m	₦344m