Edo State

Rooftop solar in Ikpoba-Okha, Edo: what the roofs are worth

Ikpoba-Okha has 249,698 buildings with a viable rooftop and 8.12 GWp of roof capacity. 55% run a generator, and together they spend ₦191bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

249,698

Usable roof area

36 km²

8.12 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦191bn/yr

164 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

3.4 yr

Median IRR 31% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ikpoba-Okha

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦191bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦188bn

Lifetime cash saved₦9.94tn

NPV₦1.39tn

Median IRR31%

Median payback3.4 yr

Unlocked energy162 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity677 MWp

Capex₦619bn

Year-one energy value₦339bn

Lifetime energy value₦15.6tn

NPV₦2.4tn

Median IRR63%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Ikpoba-Okha's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 677 MWp
Capital cost: ₦619bn
Year 1 savings: ₦339bn/yr
NPV: ₦2.4tn
Median IRR: 63%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ikpoba-Okha pays back quickly

Of the 245,310 buildings in Ikpoba-Okha with a modelled payback, 78.3% pay back inside five years and 44.2% inside three.

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How much of Ikpoba-Okha's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ikpoba-Okha consume 448 GWh/yr but want 610 GWh/yr. The 27% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ikpoba-Okha

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ikpoba-Okha actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 245,310 buildings with a modelled result out of 249,698 in Ikpoba-Okha. 216,208 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years108,549 (44%)

Under 5 years192,040 (78%)

Under 7 years215,997 (88%)

Under 10 years229,364 (93%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%227,655 (91%)

Above 15%216,208 (87%)

Above 20%198,713 (80%)

Above 25%137,640 (55%)

CO₂ avoided

356 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

67.6 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

162 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

296k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ikpoba-Okha.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Ikpoba-Okha

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	159,910	93,262	₦108bn	₦107bn	35%	3.1 yr
A	50,856	24,078	₦56.8bn	₦55.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	27,356	14,879	₦14.3bn	₦14.2bn	43%	2.4 yr
E	7,728	3,670	₦8.07bn	₦7.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	3,848	1,902	₦3.04bn	₦2.88bn	33%	2.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	239,069	131,644	₦68bn	₦67.5bn	27%	3.6 yr
Commercial General	6,126	3,684	₦37.9bn	₦37.6bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	3,099	1,728	₦722m	₦722m	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	759	424	₦80.5bn	₦78.6bn	39%	2.6 yr
Worship	282	113	₦184m	₦184m	33%	3.1 yr
Industrial	189	122	₦2.43bn	₦2.34bn	43%	2.4 yr
Hospitality	105	51	₦752m	₦716m	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	25	9	₦119m	₦113m	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	20	9	₦28.6m	₦28.6m	33%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	17	5	₦22.6m	₦22.6m	33%	3.1 yr
Automotive	7	2	₦3.14m	₦3.14m	31%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	78,055	45,942	₦32.4bn	₦32.4bn	37%	2.9 yr
250 1000m2	68,827	39,264	₦67.5bn	₦66.9bn	37%	2.9 yr
Under 30m2	51,231	25,802	₦1.9bn	₦1.89bn	19%	5.1 yr
50 100m2	27,481	14,436	₦3.16bn	₦3.09bn	31%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	23,455	11,975	₦1.51bn	₦1.46bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	649	372	₦84.2bn	₦82.1bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	175,112	92,142	₦71.3bn	₦70.8bn	25%	4.1 yr
Urban	40,545	29,183	₦76.8bn	₦75.3bn	47%	2.4 yr
Unclassified	27,700	11,746	₦32.9bn	₦32.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	3,254	2,417	₦2.53bn	₦2.53bn	69%	1.6 yr
Dense Urban	3,087	2,303	₦7.18bn	₦6.94bn	41%	2.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	108,169	64,041	₦24bn	₦24bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential Informal	43,955	14,568	₦7.49bn	₦7.48bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	34,850	23,140	₦30.7bn	₦30.3bn	55%	1.9 yr
Shed	24,807	12,892	₦1.7bn	₦1.7bn	29%	3.4 yr
Residential Small	17,326	10,406	₦2.28bn	₦2.17bn	39%	2.6 yr
Apartment	7,280	4,879	₦1.39bn	₦1.39bn	41%	2.6 yr
Commercial	3,164	2,230	₦25.5bn	₦25.2bn	43%	2.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	3,104	1,730	₦711m	₦711m	35%	3.1 yr
Duplex	2,682	1,718	₦457m	₦457m	39%	2.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,552	870	₦8.03bn	₦7.97bn	37%	2.9 yr
Unknown	987	393	₦2.65bn	₦2.65bn	31%	3.6 yr
Institutional	462	278	₦78bn	₦76.3bn	35%	3.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	247,924	136,809	₦131bn	₦130bn
Industrial	1,426	969	₦59.3bn	₦57.6bn
Orchard	348	13	₦31.9m	₦31.9m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	244,082	134,207	₦74.5bn	₦73.9bn	29%	3.6 yr
SME High	4,832	3,143	₦33.9bn	₦33.5bn	41%	2.6 yr
Enterprise	784	441	₦82.3bn	₦80.3bn	39%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	115,671	66,736	₦104bn	₦102bn
3.0	73,421	42,259	₦52.5bn	₦51.8bn
2.0	27,086	11,876	₦2.47bn	₦2.45bn
0.0	22,737	11,763	₦1.53bn	₦1.53bn
1.0	7,232	2,864	₦366m	₦366m
5.0	2,173	1,360	₦9.98bn	₦9.93bn
6.0	1,378	933	₦19.7bn	₦19.4bn