Edo State

Rooftop solar in Egor, Edo: what the roofs are worth

Egor has 114,990 buildings with a viable rooftop and 3.83 GWp of roof capacity. 63% run a generator, and together they spend ₦121bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

114,990

Usable roof area

17 km²

3.83 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦121bn/yr

87.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

2.6 yr

Median IRR 41% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Egor

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦121bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦120bn

Lifetime cash saved₦6.55tn

NPV₦905bn

Median IRR41%

Median payback2.6 yr

Unlocked energy102 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity396 MWp

Capex₦383bn

Year-one energy value₦227bn

Lifetime energy value₦10.6tn

NPV₦1.66tn

Median IRR65%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Egor's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 396 MWp
Capital cost: ₦383bn
Year 1 savings: ₦227bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.66tn
Median IRR: 65%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Egor pays back quickly

Of the 114,662 buildings in Egor with a modelled payback, 89.3% pay back inside five years and 57.6% inside three.

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How much of Egor's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Egor consume 247 GWh/yr but want 349 GWh/yr. The 29% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Egor

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Egor actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 114,662 buildings with a modelled result out of 114,990 in Egor. 109,328 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years66,029 (58%)

Under 5 years102,416 (89%)

Under 7 years109,274 (95%)

Under 10 years112,524 (98%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%112,196 (98%)

Above 15%109,328 (95%)

Above 20%104,606 (91%)

Above 25%86,034 (75%)

CO₂ avoided

236 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

53 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

102 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

345k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Egor.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Egor

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	60,558	32,768	₦57.4bn	₦56.8bn	35%	3.1 yr
C	45,035	33,210	₦48.8bn	₦48.6bn	45%	2.4 yr
D	6,869	5,657	₦13.3bn	₦13.2bn	59%	1.9 yr
A	1,762	387	₦1.01bn	₦1bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	766	193	₦662m	₦662m	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	109,312	69,113	₦90.2bn	₦90bn	41%	2.6 yr
Commercial General	3,099	1,563	₦17.6bn	₦17.5bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	1,281	645	₦265m	₦265m	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	627	451	₦10.7bn	₦10.1bn	43%	2.4 yr
Worship	423	283	₦646m	₦646m	41%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	115	76	₦1.23bn	₦1.1bn	39%	2.9 yr
Industrial	70	46	₦450m	₦444m	41%	2.6 yr
Mall Retail	25	16	₦132m	₦131m	39%	2.6 yr
Productive Use	20	11	₦27.6m	₦27.6m	37%	2.9 yr
Automotive	10	6	₦38.1m	₦38.1m	35%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	8	5	₦9.36m	₦9.36m	37%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
250 1000m2	35,441	22,479	₦76.1bn	₦75.6bn	43%	2.6 yr
100 250m2	34,065	22,040	₦29.5bn	₦29.4bn	43%	2.4 yr
Under 30m2	22,660	13,951	₦1.27bn	₦1.23bn	33%	3.1 yr
50 100m2	12,641	7,545	₦2.6bn	₦2.57bn	39%	2.9 yr
30 50m2	9,897	6,022	₦1.12bn	₦1.06bn	39%	2.9 yr
Over 1000m2	286	178	₦10.7bn	₦10.4bn	39%	2.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	105,575	66,957	₦110bn	₦109bn	39%	2.6 yr
Urban	5,598	3,385	₦7.02bn	₦7.02bn	55%	1.9 yr
Unclassified	3,817	1,873	₦4.01bn	₦3.78bn	27%	3.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	54,183	38,731	₦51.2bn	₦51.2bn	43%	2.4 yr
Residential Informal	24,894	11,792	₦14.3bn	₦14.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	8,506	4,648	₦15.2bn	₦15.1bn	39%	2.9 yr
Apartment	7,618	5,679	₦5.38bn	₦5.38bn	45%	2.4 yr
Shed	5,698	3,113	₦407m	₦407m	37%	2.9 yr
Residential Small	4,742	2,493	₦1.13bn	₦1.03bn	29%	3.6 yr
Duplex	3,671	2,657	₦2.53bn	₦2.53bn	45%	2.4 yr
Commercial	1,602	610	₦8.15bn	₦8.15bn	35%	3.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,283	645	₦259m	₦259m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	837	531	₦5.63bn	₦5.63bn	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	292	215	₦7.65bn	₦7.45bn	39%	2.9 yr
Unknown	259	144	₦1.11bn	₦1.11bn	33%	3.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	114,987	72,213	₦121bn	₦120bn
Farmland	3	2	₦1.1m	₦1.1m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	111,796	70,542	₦96.1bn	₦95.8bn	41%	2.6 yr
SME High	2,545	1,204	₦14.6bn	₦14.5bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	649	469	₦10.5bn	₦10.1bn	43%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	79,693	52,777	₦85.3bn	₦84.7bn
3.0	19,536	11,448	₦20.2bn	₦20bn
2.0	7,027	3,488	₦816m	₦789m
0.0	5,027	2,737	₦363m	₦363m
1.0	1,454	718	₦77.5m	₦77.5m
5.0	1,149	546	₦4.44bn	₦4.37bn
6.0	1,104	501	₦9.98bn	₦9.98bn