Edo State

Rooftop solar in Etsako West, Edo: what the roofs are worth

Etsako West has 89,280 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.59 GWp of roof capacity. 26% run a generator, and together they spend ₦44.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

89,280

Usable roof area

11.5 km²

2.59 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦44.3bn/yr

37.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Etsako West

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦44.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦43.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.42tn

NPV₦353bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy47.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity204 MWp

Capex₦192bn

Year-one energy value₦138bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.53tn

NPV₦1.07tn

Median IRR69%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Etsako West's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 204 MWp
Capital cost: ₦192bn
Year 1 savings: ₦138bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.07tn
Median IRR: 69%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Etsako West pays back quickly

Of the 87,030 buildings in Etsako West with a modelled payback, 67.5% pay back inside five years and 25.3% inside three.

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How much of Etsako West's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Etsako West consume 88.6 GWh/yr but want 136 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Etsako West

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Etsako West actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 87,030 buildings with a modelled result out of 89,280 in Etsako West. 70,800 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years22,019 (25%)

Under 5 years58,766 (68%)

Under 7 years70,711 (81%)

Under 10 years77,800 (89%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%76,691 (86%)

Above 15%70,800 (79%)

Above 20%62,010 (69%)

Above 25%53,006 (59%)

CO₂ avoided

88 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

18.8 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

47.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

235k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Etsako West.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Etsako West

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	39,392	11,553	₦15.7bn	₦15.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	24,566	3,154	₦7.03bn	₦6.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	15,090	5,275	₦15bn	₦14.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	10,232	2,893	₦6.66bn	₦6.63bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	83,446	20,241	₦26.3bn	₦25.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	3,179	1,468	₦11.4bn	₦11.4bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	1,832	729	₦217m	₦217m	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	444	244	₦5.83bn	₦5.83bn	43%	2.4 yr
Worship	214	123	₦165m	₦165m	45%	2.4 yr
Industrial	99	51	₦235m	₦235m	39%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	31	10	₦171m	₦166m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	26	9	₦18.7m	₦18.6m	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	5	0	₦1.28m	₦1.28m	33%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	4	0	₦1.55m	₦1.55m	33%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	29,568	7,674	₦13.1bn	₦12.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
250 1000m2	18,656	5,442	₦22.8bn	₦22.7bn	25%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	18,480	4,352	₦512m	₦509m	11%	7.4 yr
50 100m2	12,472	3,039	₦1.35bn	₦1.28bn	21%	5.1 yr
30 50m2	9,945	2,299	₦447m	₦446m	17%	6.1 yr
Over 1000m2	159	69	₦6.2bn	₦6.17bn	37%	2.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	60,835	14,170	₦21.4bn	₦21.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	9,592	2,741	₦5.35bn	₦5.32bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	9,493	3,840	₦10.1bn	₦10.1bn	25%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	7,517	1,228	₦4.82bn	₦4.49bn	21%	4.9 yr
Rural	1,843	896	₦2.73bn	₦2.73bn	27%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	30,060	4,704	₦2.67bn	₦2.67bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	20,881	7,867	₦21.2bn	₦20.9bn	25%	4.1 yr
Shed	11,173	3,361	₦480m	₦480m	19%	5.9 yr
Residential Small	10,446	3,591	₦1.33bn	₦1.25bn	23%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	9,667	581	₦509m	₦509m	21%	4.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,833	729	₦217m	₦217m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial	1,642	797	₦6.55bn	₦6.52bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,154	505	₦3.8bn	₦3.8bn	35%	3.1 yr
Duplex	887	96	₦56.1m	₦56.1m	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	332	41	₦22.7m	₦22.7m	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	288	165	₦3.57bn	₦3.57bn	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	142	82	₦750m	₦750m	49%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	89,121	22,801	₦42.6bn	₦42.4bn
Commercial	80	50	₦1.05bn	₦1.05bn
Industrial	79	24	₦640m	₦407m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	85,952	21,299	₦28bn	₦27.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	2,851	1,316	₦10.4bn	₦10.4bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	477	260	₦5.9bn	₦5.9bn	43%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	31,167	9,838	₦28.1bn	₦27.7bn
4.0	27,475	4,391	₦6.99bn	₦6.99bn
2.0	14,790	3,773	₦1.98bn	₦1.98bn
0.0	10,901	3,296	₦459m	₦459m
1.0	3,196	1,070	₦237m	₦237m
5.0	1,252	361	₦3.78bn	₦3.76bn
6.0	499	146	₦2.74bn	₦2.74bn