Edo State

Rooftop solar in Ovia North-East, Edo: what the roofs are worth

Ovia North-East has 128,972 buildings with a viable rooftop and 3.39 GWp of roof capacity. 38% run a generator, and together they spend ₦81bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

128,972

Usable roof area

15 km²

3.39 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦81bn/yr

73.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ovia North-East

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦81bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦78.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦4.15tn

NPV₦615bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy55.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity257 MWp

Capex₦249bn

Year-one energy value₦181bn

Lifetime energy value₦8.54tn

NPV₦1.4tn

Median IRR81%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Ovia North-East's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 257 MWp
Capital cost: ₦249bn
Year 1 savings: ₦181bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.4tn
Median IRR: 81%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ovia North-East pays back quickly

Of the 126,729 buildings in Ovia North-East with a modelled payback, 65.7% pay back inside five years and 35.7% inside three.

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How much of Ovia North-East's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ovia North-East consume 142 GWh/yr but want 197 GWh/yr. The 28% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ovia North-East

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ovia North-East actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 126,729 buildings with a modelled result out of 128,972 in Ovia North-East. 98,424 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years45,240 (36%)

Under 5 years83,272 (66%)

Under 7 years98,324 (78%)

Under 10 years107,080 (84%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%105,480 (82%)

Above 15%98,424 (76%)

Above 20%87,575 (68%)

Above 25%57,083 (44%)

CO₂ avoided

141 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

36.9 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

55.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

313k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ovia North-East.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ovia North-East

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	44,861	11,741	₦29.9bn	₦29.1bn	19%	5.4 yr
B	34,794	12,646	₦19.3bn	₦19.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	33,328	18,344	₦19.4bn	₦18.9bn	39%	2.9 yr
D	13,043	6,268	₦9.97bn	₦9.97bn	25%	4.4 yr
A	2,946	160	₦2.43bn	₦1.66bn	23%	4.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	123,946	45,525	₦49.7bn	₦48.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	2,896	2,041	₦20.9bn	₦20.7bn	45%	2.4 yr
Commercial Retail	1,601	1,195	₦577m	₦577m	45%	2.4 yr
Anchor	341	287	₦9.28bn	₦8.9bn	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	82	56	₦296m	₦293m	45%	2.4 yr
Worship	45	20	₦25.4m	₦25.4m	33%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	40	24	₦209m	₦209m	47%	2.4 yr
Productive Use	13	9	₦9.72m	₦9.72m	55%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	4	0	₦2.41m	₦2.41m	33%	3.4 yr
Mall Retail	4	2	₦4.7m	₦4.7m	33%	2.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	39,132	16,927	₦24.7bn	₦24.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	30,891	9,760	₦1.19bn	₦1.18bn	9%	8.9 yr
250 1000m2	26,317	11,860	₦41bn	₦40.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	18,220	5,992	₦3.03bn	₦2.87bn	23%	4.9 yr
30 50m2	14,217	4,492	₦956m	₦935m	15%	6.9 yr
Over 1000m2	195	128	₦10bn	₦9.63bn	49%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	45,972	10,448	₦23.3bn	₦21.8bn	19%	5.6 yr
Urban Centre	45,588	17,794	₦24.5bn	₦24.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	30,544	16,591	₦22.5bn	₦22.5bn	43%	2.6 yr
Rural	4,870	2,807	₦6.76bn	₦6.34bn	65%	1.6 yr
Dense Urban	1,998	1,519	₦3.84bn	₦3.76bn	51%	2.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	33,493	15,910	₦38.6bn	₦37.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	29,722	8,353	₦1.12bn	₦1.12bn	9%	9.6 yr
Residential Formal	28,504	10,758	₦4.73bn	₦4.71bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	20,334	6,765	₦3bn	₦2.83bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Informal	7,403	1,979	₦1.72bn	₦1.72bn	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	3,812	1,465	₦444m	₦444m	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,612	1,203	₦585m	₦585m	45%	2.4 yr
Commercial	1,596	1,129	₦12.9bn	₦12.8bn	43%	2.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	895	673	₦6.3bn	₦6.11bn	65%	1.6 yr
Duplex	677	294	₦83.8m	₦83.8m	25%	4.4 yr
Unknown	226	98	₦669m	₦665m	31%	3.6 yr
Institutional	198	158	₦7.6bn	₦7.37bn	55%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	128,905	49,147	₦80.9bn	₦78.8bn
Industrial	66	12	₦75.5m	₦75.5m
Orchard	1	0	₦1.7k	₦1.7k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	126,099	47,052	₦52.6bn	₦51bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	2,510	1,810	₦19.1bn	₦18.9bn	47%	2.4 yr
Enterprise	363	297	₦9.34bn	₦8.97bn	61%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	42,183	20,499	₦47.6bn	₦46.3bn
4.0	34,419	12,497	₦12.9bn	₦12.9bn
0.0	29,645	8,299	₦1.1bn	₦1.1bn
2.0	15,238	5,275	₦4.6bn	₦4.13bn
1.0	5,783	1,471	₦809m	₦758m
5.0	978	602	₦4.15bn	₦4.13bn
6.0	726	516	₦9.78bn	₦9.59bn