Edo State

Rooftop solar in Esan South-East, Edo: what the roofs are worth

Esan South-East has 41,782 buildings with a viable rooftop and 873 MWp of roof capacity. 30% run a generator, and together they spend ₦50.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

41,782

Usable roof area

3.89 km²

873 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦50.4bn/yr

44.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Esan South-East

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦50.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦47.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.4tn

NPV₦382bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy21.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity125 MWp

Capex₦131bn

Year-one energy value₦119bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.59tn

NPV₦948bn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Esan South-East's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 125 MWp
Capital cost: ₦131bn
Year 1 savings: ₦119bn/yr
NPV: ₦948bn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Esan South-East pays back quickly

Of the 41,182 buildings in Esan South-East with a modelled payback, 60.8% pay back inside five years and 30.6% inside three.

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How much of Esan South-East's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Esan South-East consume 62.3 GWh/yr but want 83.9 GWh/yr. The 26% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Esan South-East

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Esan South-East actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 41,182 buildings with a modelled result out of 41,782 in Esan South-East. 29,729 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years12,613 (31%)

Under 5 years25,043 (61%)

Under 7 years29,694 (72%)

Under 10 years32,872 (80%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%32,084 (77%)

Above 15%29,729 (71%)

Above 20%26,361 (63%)

Above 25%21,341 (51%)

CO₂ avoided

80.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

27.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

21.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

266k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Esan South-East.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Esan South-East

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	30,830	8,607	₦40.6bn	₦38.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	8,887	3,307	₦6.62bn	₦6.56bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	2,065	794	₦3.19bn	₦2.84bn	25%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	40,982	11,935	₦45.4bn	₦42.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	350	344	₦2.3bn	₦2.3bn	57%	1.9 yr
Anchor	267	248	₦2.4bn	₦2.36bn	69%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	136	136	₦34.2m	₦34.2m	51%	2.1 yr
Worship	31	31	₦189m	₦189m	53%	1.9 yr
Industrial	8	7	₦28.6m	₦28.6m	69%	1.4 yr
Hospitality	5	5	₦26.9m	₦26.9m	49%	2.1 yr
Mall Retail	2	2	₦10.1m	₦10.1m	49%	2.1 yr
Filling Station	1	0	₦322k	₦322k	33%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	14,842	5,059	₦25bn	₦23.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	10,194	2,875	₦492m	₦491m	9%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	7,167	1,909	₦3.61bn	₦3.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	5,816	1,351	₦641m	₦641m	11%	8.9 yr
250 1000m2	3,735	1,495	₦19.4bn	₦18bn	25%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	28	19	₦1.29bn	₦1.28bn	49%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	9,929	3,911	₦9.14bn	₦8.74bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	9,525	3,694	₦21.1bn	₦19.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	9,480	896	₦5.99bn	₦5.45bn	9%	13.4 yr
Urban	9,420	3,089	₦10.1bn	₦9.83bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	3,428	1,118	₦4.08bn	₦3.92bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	13,922	4,515	₦37.2bn	₦34.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	12,207	2,753	₦379m	₦379m	9%	12.9 yr
Residential Small	11,623	3,334	₦6.51bn	₦6.39bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	3,230	1,333	₦1.35bn	₦1.35bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	164	164	₦971m	₦971m	53%	1.9 yr
Institutional	152	146	₦1.19bn	₦1.19bn	57%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	136	136	₦34.2m	₦34.2m	51%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	105	93	₦574m	₦574m	83%	1.4 yr
School	67	64	₦265m	₦265m	81%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	48	45	₦827m	₦795m	53%	1.9 yr
Clinic	41	40	₦633m	₦620m	53%	1.9 yr
Commercial	32	32	₦353m	₦352m	59%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	41,782	12,708	₦50.4bn	₦47.7bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	41,306	12,253	₦46.6bn	₦43.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	275	255	₦2.43bn	₦2.38bn	69%	1.6 yr
SME High	201	200	₦1.35bn	₦1.35bn	55%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	19,860	6,989	₦43.6bn	₦41.1bn
0.0	12,195	2,753	₦379m	₦379m
2.0	6,441	1,839	₦3.89bn	₦3.63bn
1.0	1,755	442	₦308m	₦274m
4.0	1,523	677	₦2.04bn	₦2.04bn
5.0	8	8	₦227m	₦227m