Edo State

Rooftop solar in Orhionmwon, Edo: what the roofs are worth

Orhionmwon has 50,171 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.11 GWp of roof capacity. 50% run a generator, and together they spend ₦70bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

50,171

Usable roof area

4.96 km²

1.11 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦70bn/yr

65.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

2.6 yr

Median IRR 39% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Orhionmwon

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦70bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦68bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.47tn

NPV₦544bn

Median IRR39%

Median payback2.6 yr

Unlocked energy27.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity157 MWp

Capex₦163bn

Year-one energy value₦146bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.91tn

NPV₦1.17tn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Orhionmwon's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 157 MWp
Capital cost: ₦163bn
Year 1 savings: ₦146bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.17tn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Orhionmwon pays back quickly

Of the 49,614 buildings in Orhionmwon with a modelled payback, 72.9% pay back inside five years and 50.7% inside three.

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How much of Orhionmwon's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Orhionmwon consume 83.5 GWh/yr but want 111 GWh/yr. The 25% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Orhionmwon

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Orhionmwon actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 49,614 buildings with a modelled result out of 50,171 in Orhionmwon. 39,471 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years25,130 (51%)

Under 5 years36,177 (73%)

Under 7 years39,440 (79%)

Under 10 years42,471 (86%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%41,641 (83%)

Above 15%39,471 (79%)

Above 20%37,227 (74%)

Above 25%28,450 (57%)

CO₂ avoided

111 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

39.3 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

27.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

285k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Orhionmwon.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Orhionmwon

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	46,188	23,178	₦63.7bn	₦62.4bn	45%	1.9 yr
D	1,524	656	₦1.24bn	₦1.24bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	1,220	946	₦2.48bn	₦2.34bn	45%	2.4 yr
C	766	369	₦2.3bn	₦1.78bn	25%	4.1 yr
A	473	142	₦257m	₦257m	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	49,281	24,505	₦59.3bn	₦58.2bn	25%	3.1 yr
Commercial General	442	397	₦4.27bn	₦4.25bn	59%	1.9 yr
Anchor	307	282	₦6.19bn	₦5.35bn	79%	1.4 yr
Commercial Retail	100	71	₦22.6m	₦22.6m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	30	28	₦122m	₦119m	73%	1.4 yr
Worship	9	6	₦40.7m	₦40.7m	59%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	2	2	₦14.3m	₦14.3m	53%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	18,621	9,798	₦29.4bn	₦28.9bn	59%	1.9 yr
Under 30m2	13,396	6,386	₦987m	₦982m	15%	5.1 yr
50 100m2	7,145	3,174	₦2.49bn	₦2.49bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	5,878	2,633	₦754m	₦753m	21%	5.1 yr
250 1000m2	5,089	3,268	₦31.8bn	₦30.9bn	69%	1.6 yr
Over 1000m2	42	32	₦4.56bn	₦3.97bn	61%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	15,017	10,572	₦28bn	₦26.7bn	67%	1.6 yr
Rural	13,797	6,104	₦15.3bn	₦15.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	11,402	3,189	₦11.8bn	₦11.4bn	23%	4.4 yr
Urban	9,912	5,396	₦14.8bn	₦14.7bn	47%	2.4 yr
Urban Centre	43	30	₦31.6m	₦31.6m	57%	1.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	19,044	10,131	₦48.7bn	₦47.6bn	61%	1.6 yr
Shed	14,826	6,171	₦937m	₦937m	11%	9.1 yr
Residential Small	12,009	5,911	₦3.95bn	₦3.95bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	2,779	1,835	₦4.82bn	₦4.82bn	59%	1.9 yr
Apartment	486	387	₦753m	₦753m	59%	1.9 yr
Institutional	199	185	₦4.19bn	₦4.19bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial	174	156	₦1.94bn	₦1.93bn	67%	1.6 yr
Duplex	137	70	₦136m	₦136m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	132	121	₦866m	₦866m	83%	1.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	100	71	₦22.6m	₦22.6m	61%	1.6 yr
School	77	74	₦470m	₦470m	79%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	46	40	₦2.03bn	₦1.23bn	55%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	49,844	25,102	₦69bn	₦67bn
Commercial	223	180	₦420m	₦420m
Orchard	87	0	₦670k	₦670k
Industrial	17	9	₦583m	₦583m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	49,639	24,810	₦61.7bn	₦60.6bn	27%	2.6 yr
Enterprise	336	310	₦6.31bn	₦5.47bn	77%	1.4 yr
SME High	196	171	₦1.97bn	₦1.95bn	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	25,370	13,670	₦58.6bn	₦56.6bn
0.0	14,691	6,068	₦898m	₦898m
2.0	5,496	2,590	₦2.33bn	₦2.31bn
4.0	3,342	2,304	₦7.73bn	₦7.7bn
1.0	1,228	628	₦226m	₦226m
5.0	38	27	₦197m	₦197m
6.0	6	4	₦25.5m	₦25.5m