Edo State

Rooftop solar in Ovia South-West, Edo: what the roofs are worth

Ovia South-West has 65,921 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.01 GWp of roof capacity. 19% run a generator, and together they spend ₦25.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

65,921

Usable roof area

4.51 km²

1.01 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦25.2bn/yr

23 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.9 yr

Median IRR 19% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ovia South-West

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦25.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦24.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.29tn

NPV₦193bn

Median IRR19%

Median payback5.9 yr

Unlocked energy16.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity101 MWp

Capex₦105bn

Year-one energy value₦88.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.2tn

NPV₦703bn

Median IRR91%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ovia South-West's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 101 MWp
Capital cost: ₦105bn
Year 1 savings: ₦88.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦703bn
Median IRR: 91%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ovia South-West pays back quickly

Of the 65,005 buildings in Ovia South-West with a modelled payback, 43.2% pay back inside five years and 19.3% inside three.

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How much of Ovia South-West's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ovia South-West consume 38.1 GWh/yr but want 54.8 GWh/yr. The 31% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ovia South-West

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ovia South-West actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 65,005 buildings with a modelled result out of 65,921 in Ovia South-West. 37,831 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years12,575 (19%)

Under 5 years28,102 (43%)

Under 7 years37,730 (58%)

Under 10 years43,598 (67%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%42,666 (65%)

Above 15%37,831 (57%)

Above 20%30,615 (46%)

Above 25%15,715 (24%)

CO₂ avoided

43.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

12.7 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

16.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

260k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ovia South-West.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ovia South-West

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	46,386	5,125	₦12.6bn	₦12bn	11%	8.4 yr
D	13,017	6,018	₦8.06bn	₦7.99bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	5,577	1,376	₦4.32bn	₦4.31bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	872	77	₦147m	₦147m	23%	4.6 yr
A	69	54	₦64.7m	₦64.7m	39%	2.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	64,932	12,027	₦19.1bn	₦18.7bn	19%	5.9 yr
Commercial General	352	231	₦2.31bn	₦2.31bn	51%	2.1 yr
Anchor	289	208	₦3.47bn	₦3.24bn	53%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	152	75	₦47m	₦47m	33%	3.4 yr
Productive Use	63	41	₦39.4m	₦39.4m	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	60	28	₦38m	₦38m	33%	3.4 yr
Hospitality	49	33	₦171m	₦171m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	23	6	₦33.2m	₦33.2m	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	1	1	₦736k	₦736k	35%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	20,590	3,151	₦422m	₦413m	5%	16.4 yr
50 100m2	16,135	1,758	₦1.17bn	₦1.17bn	21%	5.4 yr
100 250m2	14,577	4,554	₦9.22bn	₦8.93bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	10,886	1,431	₦362m	₦360m	9%	13.1 yr
250 1000m2	3,673	1,717	₦10.8bn	₦10.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	60	39	₦3.17bn	₦3.06bn	59%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	24,488	1,900	₦5.52bn	₦5.37bn	9%	9.9 yr
Rural	22,289	2,594	₦4.9bn	₦4.58bn	15%	7.1 yr
Dense Urban	13,288	5,649	₦7.91bn	₦7.84bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	5,856	2,507	₦6.85bn	₦6.76bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	26,228	3,328	₦444m	₦444m	7%	15.4 yr
Residential Small	19,806	3,230	₦1.71bn	₦1.71bn	21%	5.1 yr
Residential	16,400	5,131	₦16.7bn	₦16.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	1,611	307	₦194m	₦187m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	747	0	₦34.3m	₦34.3m	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	207	113	₦81.8m	₦81.8m	45%	2.4 yr
Institutional	142	102	₦2.77bn	₦2.66bn	51%	2.1 yr
Commercial	127	84	₦1.34bn	₦1.33bn	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	82	59	₦342m	₦342m	77%	1.4 yr
School	74	50	₦122m	₦122m	69%	1.6 yr
Apartment	70	17	₦7.66m	₦7.66m	25%	4.4 yr
Clinic	67	48	₦331m	₦307m	49%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	65,321	12,274	₦24.1bn	₦23.5bn
Orchard	495	325	₦705m	₦705m
Industrial	99	51	₦374m	₦374m
Farmland	6	0	₦116k	₦116k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	65,430	12,310	₦20.1bn	₦19.7bn	19%	5.9 yr
Enterprise	272	188	₦3.38bn	₦3.16bn	55%	1.9 yr
SME High	219	152	₦1.72bn	₦1.72bn	53%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	26,206	3,308	₦437m	₦437m
3.0	20,022	6,386	₦20.9bn	₦20.5bn
2.0	12,136	2,066	₦2.2bn	₦2bn
1.0	5,829	534	₦269m	₦268m
4.0	1,689	354	₦1.34bn	₦1.33bn
5.0	38	2	₦61.4m	₦61.4m
6.0	1	0	₦7.2m	₦7.2m