Edo State

Rooftop solar in Etsako East, Edo: what the roofs are worth

Etsako East has 47,042 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.21 GWp of roof capacity. 33% run a generator, and together they spend ₦58.7bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

47,042

Usable roof area

5.38 km²

1.21 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦58.7bn/yr

50.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Etsako East

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦58.7bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦53.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.76tn

NPV₦427bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy27.8 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity134 MWp

Capex₦136bn

Year-one energy value₦113bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.33tn

NPV₦889bn

Median IRR87%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Etsako East's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 134 MWp
Capital cost: ₦136bn
Year 1 savings: ₦113bn/yr
NPV: ₦889bn
Median IRR: 87%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Etsako East pays back quickly

Of the 46,447 buildings in Etsako East with a modelled payback, 73.6% pay back inside five years and 33.3% inside three.

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How much of Etsako East's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Etsako East consume 80 GWh/yr but want 108 GWh/yr. The 26% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Etsako East

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Etsako East actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 46,447 buildings with a modelled result out of 47,042 in Etsako East. 39,819 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years15,461 (33%)

Under 5 years34,177 (74%)

Under 7 years39,796 (86%)

Under 10 years42,568 (92%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%42,057 (89%)

Above 15%39,819 (85%)

Above 20%35,800 (76%)

Above 25%30,967 (66%)

CO₂ avoided

92.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

29.5 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

27.8 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

230k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Etsako East.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Etsako East

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	16,930	8,568	₦31.9bn	₦26.9bn	57%	1.9 yr
D	12,660	4,825	₦21.9bn	₦21.7bn	27%	4.1 yr
C	12,560	1,203	₦2.48bn	₦2.48bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	3,923	697	₦1.22bn	₦1.22bn	25%	4.1 yr
A	969	356	₦1.26bn	₦1.26bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	45,283	14,929	₦51.3bn	₦46.1bn	25%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	984	373	₦3.43bn	₦3.43bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	437	96	₦48.7m	₦48.7m	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	233	184	₦3.72bn	₦3.68bn	57%	1.9 yr
Worship	81	51	₦142m	₦142m	51%	2.1 yr
Industrial	20	13	₦53.1m	₦53m	47%	2.4 yr
Filling Station	3	2	₦5.74m	₦5.74m	47%	2.4 yr
Hospitality	1	1	₦6.47m	₦6.47m	47%	2.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	20,975	6,545	₦25.3bn	₦22.5bn	27%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	8,884	2,848	₦443m	₦412m	15%	6.4 yr
50 100m2	7,592	2,528	₦2.48bn	₦2.32bn	25%	4.4 yr
250 1000m2	5,257	2,225	₦26.5bn	₦24.4bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	4,248	1,454	₦472m	₦471m	21%	5.4 yr
Over 1000m2	86	49	₦3.42bn	₦3.42bn	37%	2.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	14,143	6,078	₦25.2bn	₦25.2bn	27%	4.1 yr
Urban	12,507	4,538	₦20.7bn	₦16.2bn	27%	4.1 yr
Urban Centre	9,906	1,336	₦1.98bn	₦1.98bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	8,026	2,238	₦8.25bn	₦7.67bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	2,460	1,459	₦2.51bn	₦2.5bn	73%	1.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	15,375	6,037	₦44.1bn	₦39.4bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	10,144	2,176	₦2.51bn	₦2.51bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	9,215	3,419	₦4.03bn	₦3.61bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	8,892	3,204	₦493m	₦493m	19%	5.9 yr
Apartment	1,286	65	₦63.2m	₦63.2m	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial	490	270	₦2.63bn	₦2.63bn	43%	2.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	437	96	₦48.7m	₦48.7m	33%	3.4 yr
Duplex	371	28	₦38.9m	₦38.9m	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	354	0	₦114m	₦114m	33%	3.1 yr
Institutional	162	121	₦2.77bn	₦2.77bn	47%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	85	72	₦464m	₦464m	77%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	46	37	₦714m	₦693m	53%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	46,915	15,588	₦58.2bn	₦53.1bn
Industrial	120	56	₦402m	₦402m
Farmland	7	5	₦22.7m	₦22.7m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	45,954	15,188	₦52.2bn	₦47bn	25%	4.1 yr
SME High	847	272	₦2.75bn	₦2.75bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	241	189	₦3.74bn	₦3.7bn	57%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	20,839	7,928	₦49bn	₦44.5bn
4.0	11,070	2,042	₦4.62bn	₦4.62bn
0.0	8,558	3,094	₦457m	₦457m
2.0	5,120	2,089	₦3.39bn	₦2.89bn
1.0	959	350	₦350m	₦218m
5.0	436	120	₦536m	₦536m
6.0	60	26	₦282m	₦282m