Edo State

Rooftop solar in Oredo, Edo: what the roofs are worth

Oredo has 146,057 buildings with a viable rooftop and 4.7 GWp of roof capacity. 53% run a generator, and together they spend ₦123bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

146,057

Usable roof area

20.9 km²

4.7 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦123bn/yr

83.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

3.9 yr

Median IRR 29% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Oredo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦123bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦123bn

Lifetime cash saved₦6.73tn

NPV₦913bn

Median IRR29%

Median payback3.9 yr

Unlocked energy111 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity448 MWp

Capex₦436bn

Year-one energy value₦244bn

Lifetime energy value₦11.4tn

NPV₦1.76tn

Median IRR57%

Median payback1.9 yr

Three ways to size Oredo's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 448 MWp
Capital cost: ₦436bn
Year 1 savings: ₦244bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.76tn
Median IRR: 57%
Median payback: 1.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Oredo pays back quickly

Of the 145,179 buildings in Oredo with a modelled payback, 81.0% pay back inside five years and 36.7% inside three.

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How much of Oredo's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Oredo consume 263 GWh/yr but want 374 GWh/yr. The 30% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Oredo

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Oredo actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 145,179 buildings with a modelled result out of 146,057 in Oredo. 131,917 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years53,307 (37%)

Under 5 years117,667 (81%)

Under 7 years131,782 (91%)

Under 10 years138,769 (96%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%137,954 (94%)

Above 15%131,917 (90%)

Above 20%122,234 (84%)

Above 25%86,601 (59%)

CO₂ avoided

248 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

52.8 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

111 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

402k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Oredo.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Oredo

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	76,487	32,247	₦36.7bn	₦36.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	49,881	32,295	₦49.7bn	₦49.6bn	37%	2.9 yr
C	14,816	10,966	₦28.4bn	₦28.3bn	51%	2.1 yr
E	2,740	462	₦1.89bn	₦1.86bn	21%	5.1 yr
D	2,133	1,709	₦6.69bn	₦6.65bn	59%	1.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	140,170	75,880	₦93.8bn	₦93.7bn	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	2,568	677	₦11.6bn	₦11.5bn	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	993	376	₦13bn	₦12.7bn	39%	2.6 yr
Worship	679	293	₦704m	₦704m	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	547	108	₦134m	₦134m	33%	3.4 yr
Hospitality	532	165	₦3.04bn	₦2.95bn	33%	3.1 yr
Industrial	248	95	₦327m	₦319m	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	166	56	₦460m	₦454m	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	87	18	₦292m	₦291m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	59	9	₦108m	₦108m	33%	3.1 yr
Automotive	8	2	₦7.21m	₦7.21m	29%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
250 1000m2	42,036	24,155	₦77.6bn	₦77.3bn	33%	3.1 yr
100 250m2	37,072	19,902	₦27.2bn	₦27.1bn	31%	3.6 yr
Under 30m2	30,931	15,635	₦1.36bn	₦1.32bn	21%	4.9 yr
50 100m2	18,957	9,370	₦2.91bn	₦2.91bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	16,622	8,433	₦1.23bn	₦1.23bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	439	184	₦13.1bn	₦13bn	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	127,809	66,294	₦95.4bn	₦94.9bn	27%	4.1 yr
Urban	10,482	8,197	₦19.1bn	₦19.1bn	47%	2.4 yr
Unclassified	7,766	3,188	₦8.96bn	₦8.89bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	61,905	22,300	₦19.4bn	₦19.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	38,069	28,208	₦25bn	₦25bn	37%	3.1 yr
Residential	14,949	10,173	₦43.7bn	₦43.6bn	55%	1.9 yr
Shed	12,606	7,135	₦921m	₦921m	33%	3.4 yr
Residential Small	8,262	4,729	₦2.6bn	₦2.57bn	31%	3.4 yr
Apartment	3,351	2,591	₦1.78bn	₦1.78bn	39%	2.9 yr
Duplex	1,027	744	₦386m	₦386m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	857	147	₦3.48bn	₦3.48bn	35%	3.1 yr
Unknown	619	188	₦2.59bn	₦2.59bn	31%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	561	110	₦97.5m	₦97.5m	33%	3.4 yr
Place Of Worship	484	215	₦498m	₦498m	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial	437	107	₦2.38bn	₦2.33bn	35%	3.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	146,006	77,634	₦123bn	₦123bn
Retail	51	45	₦37.2m	₦37.2m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	143,409	76,900	₦103bn	₦103bn	27%	3.9 yr
SME High	1,543	354	₦7.53bn	₦7.47bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	1,105	425	₦12.9bn	₦12.6bn	39%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	73,815	40,984	₦60.6bn	₦60.3bn
3.0	38,729	21,606	₦53.5bn	₦53.3bn
2.0	16,831	6,688	₦1.74bn	₦1.74bn
0.0	12,109	7,021	₦905m	₦905m
1.0	3,513	1,159	₦105m	₦104m
5.0	682	147	₦2.92bn	₦2.89bn
6.0	378	74	₦3.66bn	₦3.65bn