Edo State

Rooftop solar in Akoko-Edo, Edo: what the roofs are worth

Akoko-Edo has 61,422 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.39 GWp of roof capacity. 27% run a generator, and together they spend ₦63bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

61,422

Usable roof area

6.17 km²

1.39 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦63bn/yr

54.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Akoko-Edo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦63bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦57.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3tn

NPV₦465bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy38.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity179 MWp

Capex₦185bn

Year-one energy value₦164bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.75tn

NPV₦1.31tn

Median IRR89%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Akoko-Edo's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 179 MWp
Capital cost: ₦185bn
Year 1 savings: ₦164bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.31tn
Median IRR: 89%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Akoko-Edo pays back quickly

Of the 60,511 buildings in Akoko-Edo with a modelled payback, 64.3% pay back inside five years and 27.0% inside three.

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How much of Akoko-Edo's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Akoko-Edo consume 89 GWh/yr but want 128 GWh/yr. The 30% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Akoko-Edo

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Akoko-Edo actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 60,511 buildings with a modelled result out of 61,422 in Akoko-Edo. 46,523 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years16,315 (27%)

Under 5 years38,921 (64%)

Under 7 years46,491 (77%)

Under 10 years50,533 (84%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%49,755 (81%)

Above 15%46,523 (76%)

Above 20%41,033 (67%)

Above 25%35,470 (58%)

CO₂ avoided

103 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

30.8 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

38.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

481k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Akoko-Edo.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Akoko-Edo

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	30,514	7,518	₦40.6bn	₦34.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	19,944	5,424	₦15.8bn	₦15.7bn	27%	4.1 yr
C	10,964	3,539	₦6.58bn	₦6.57bn	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	59,927	15,195	₦53.8bn	₦48.2bn	25%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	803	686	₦5.41bn	₦5.41bn	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	343	303	₦93.1m	₦93.1m	53%	1.9 yr
Anchor	310	272	₦3.64bn	₦3.54bn	63%	1.6 yr
Worship	25	15	₦18.4m	₦18.4m	47%	2.4 yr
Industrial	5	4	₦7.83m	₦7.74m	67%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	4	3	₦2.38m	₦2.38m	41%	2.4 yr
Hospitality	4	2	₦21.6m	₦21.6m	37%	1.9 yr
Productive Use	1	1	₦394k	₦394k	65%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	20,487	5,951	₦22.6bn	₦21bn	27%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	17,234	3,599	₦507m	₦507m	9%	8.9 yr
50 100m2	9,432	2,234	₦2.39bn	₦2.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
250 1000m2	7,623	3,224	₦34.3bn	₦30.4bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	6,592	1,441	₦428m	₦424m	19%	5.9 yr
Over 1000m2	54	32	₦2.83bn	₦2.73bn	51%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	16,602	4,257	₦11bn	₦11bn	25%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	13,442	1,676	₦12.3bn	₦7.84bn	11%	7.6 yr
Urban	11,998	3,436	₦14.9bn	₦14.9bn	25%	4.1 yr
Urban Centre	10,340	3,440	₦7.96bn	₦7.96bn	27%	4.1 yr
Rural	9,040	3,672	₦16.8bn	₦15.5bn	27%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	18,746	6,152	₦46.5bn	₦41.1bn	27%	4.1 yr
Shed	17,495	3,048	₦427m	₦427m	9%	12.6 yr
Residential Small	13,149	3,167	₦3.44bn	₦3.17bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	6,981	2,184	₦2.75bn	₦2.75bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Informal	2,647	349	₦418m	₦418m	25%	4.1 yr
Apartment	756	238	₦200m	₦200m	27%	4.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	343	303	₦93.1m	₦93.1m	53%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	309	297	₦2.04bn	₦2.04bn	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial	307	235	₦2.39bn	₦2.39bn	55%	1.9 yr
Institutional	170	147	₦2.36bn	₦2.28bn	55%	1.9 yr
Duplex	153	57	₦52.6m	₦52.6m	27%	4.1 yr
Educational Facility	108	98	₦467m	₦467m	79%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	61,377	16,459	₦63bn	₦57.2bn
Farmland	45	22	₦7.88m	₦7.88m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	60,486	15,669	₦54.9bn	₦49.3bn	25%	4.1 yr
SME High	622	536	₦4.45bn	₦4.45bn	57%	1.9 yr
Enterprise	314	276	₦3.65bn	₦3.54bn	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	26,446	8,204	₦51.2bn	₦45.6bn
0.0	17,478	3,042	₦425m	₦425m
4.0	9,246	2,888	₦6.96bn	₦6.95bn
2.0	6,682	1,712	₦3.04bn	₦2.86bn
1.0	1,440	552	₦310m	₦269m
5.0	80	48	₦490m	₦490m
6.0	50	35	₦618m	₦618m