Edo State

Rooftop solar in Esan West, Edo: what the roofs are worth

Esan West has 72,137 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.94 GWp of roof capacity. 23% run a generator, and together they spend ₦29.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

72,137

Usable roof area

8.61 km²

1.94 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦29.1bn/yr

23.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Esan West

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦29.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦28.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.58tn

NPV₦229bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy29.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity129 MWp

Capex₦128bn

Year-one energy value₦94.3bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.46tn

NPV₦729bn

Median IRR67%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Esan West's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 129 MWp
Capital cost: ₦128bn
Year 1 savings: ₦94.3bn/yr
NPV: ₦729bn
Median IRR: 67%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Esan West pays back quickly

Of the 70,336 buildings in Esan West with a modelled payback, 64.9% pay back inside five years and 21.8% inside three.

Create a free account

How much of Esan West's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Esan West consume 54.4 GWh/yr but want 83.9 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Create a free account

Electricity billing bands in Esan West

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Esan West actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 70,336 buildings with a modelled result out of 72,137 in Esan West. 56,322 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years15,354 (22%)

Under 5 years45,626 (65%)

Under 7 years56,238 (80%)

Under 10 years62,784 (89%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%61,793 (86%)

Above 15%56,322 (78%)

Above 20%48,740 (68%)

Above 25%34,528 (48%)

CO₂ avoided

57.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

13.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

29.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

195k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Esan West.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Esan West

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	31,560	6,191	₦6.81bn	₦6.81bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	16,478	1,875	₦2.68bn	₦2.68bn	23%	4.6 yr
E	15,897	5,547	₦14.8bn	₦14.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	8,202	3,038	₦4.89bn	₦4.86bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	70,007	15,887	₦20.7bn	₦20.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	1,112	384	₦3.22bn	₦3.22bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	515	158	₦51.8m	₦51.8m	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	331	164	₦4.88bn	₦4.82bn	43%	2.4 yr
Worship	94	26	₦48.2m	₦48.2m	33%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	42	13	₦136m	₦136m	33%	3.1 yr
Industrial	21	14	₦99.3m	₦99.3m	69%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	5	4	₦6.31m	₦6.31m	45%	2.4 yr
Productive Use	5	0	₦1.65m	₦1.65m	33%	3.4 yr
Mall Retail	4	1	₦4.59m	₦4.59m	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	1	0	₦129k	₦129k	29%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	25,954	6,303	₦10.3bn	₦10.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	15,908	3,441	₦352m	₦352m	9%	8.9 yr
250 1000m2	12,569	3,164	₦12.9bn	₦12.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	9,929	2,070	₦851m	₦851m	21%	5.4 yr
30 50m2	7,640	1,618	₦316m	₦310m	17%	6.6 yr
Over 1000m2	137	55	₦4.4bn	₦4.37bn	27%	4.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	53,751	10,686	₦13.7bn	₦13.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	9,678	3,768	₦9.98bn	₦9.92bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	3,783	889	₦2.52bn	₦2.32bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	3,394	656	₦1.78bn	₦1.78bn	23%	4.6 yr
Rural	1,531	652	₦1.13bn	₦1.07bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	25,540	4,485	₦2.46bn	₦2.46bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	12,895	4,795	₦15.5bn	₦15.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	12,687	989	₦876m	₦876m	21%	4.6 yr
Residential Small	7,530	2,662	₦1.24bn	₦1.23bn	23%	4.6 yr
Shed	7,474	2,314	₦313m	₦313m	19%	5.9 yr
Apartment	2,793	486	₦241m	₦240m	25%	4.4 yr
Duplex	1,088	156	₦68.5m	₦68.5m	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	578	159	₦1.27bn	₦1.27bn	35%	3.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	515	158	₦51.6m	₦51.6m	33%	3.4 yr
Unknown	235	68	₦424m	₦424m	31%	3.6 yr
Institutional	188	103	₦3.62bn	₦3.62bn	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	104	61	₦507m	₦507m	59%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	72,137	16,651	₦29.1bn	₦28.8bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	71,118	16,255	₦22.2bn	₦21.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	669	218	₦1.93bn	₦1.93bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	350	178	₦4.98bn	₦4.92bn	43%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	33,415	5,194	₦5.73bn	₦5.73bn
3.0	23,055	7,360	₦21bn	₦20.7bn
0.0	7,399	2,271	₦303m	₦303m
2.0	6,724	1,427	₦777m	₦746m
1.0	1,228	313	₦57.1m	₦57.1m
5.0	285	70	₦1bn	₦1bn
6.0	31	16	₦260m	₦260m