Edo State

Rooftop solar in Owan East, Edo: what the roofs are worth

Owan East has 35,579 buildings with a viable rooftop and 867 MWp of roof capacity. 33% run a generator, and together they spend ₦32.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

35,579

Usable roof area

3.85 km²

867 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦32.9bn/yr

28.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Owan East

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦32.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦32.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.68tn

NPV₦260bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy20.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity108 MWp

Capex₦112bn

Year-one energy value₦102bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.81tn

NPV₦813bn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Owan East's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 108 MWp
Capital cost: ₦112bn
Year 1 savings: ₦102bn/yr
NPV: ₦813bn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Owan East pays back quickly

Of the 35,284 buildings in Owan East with a modelled payback, 69.1% pay back inside five years and 33.7% inside three.

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How much of Owan East's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Owan East consume 44.3 GWh/yr but want 65.3 GWh/yr. The 32% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Owan East

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Owan East actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 35,284 buildings with a modelled result out of 35,579 in Owan East. 27,305 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years11,907 (34%)

Under 5 years24,378 (69%)

Under 7 years27,294 (77%)

Under 10 years29,489 (84%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%28,904 (81%)

Above 15%27,305 (77%)

Above 20%25,284 (71%)

Above 25%22,813 (64%)

CO₂ avoided

57.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

17.8 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

20.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

256k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Owan East.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Owan East

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	25,824	9,300	₦25.3bn	₦24.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	9,755	2,611	₦7.58bn	₦7.33bn	25%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	34,778	11,166	₦28.6bn	₦28bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	445	418	₦2.54bn	₦2.48bn	57%	1.9 yr
Anchor	210	194	₦1.66bn	₦1.59bn	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	124	119	₦40.5m	₦40.5m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	18	13	₦53m	₦53m	69%	1.6 yr
Worship	3	1	₦2.66m	₦2.66m	33%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	1	0	₦265k	₦265k	33%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	12,324	4,629	₦13.8bn	₦13.6bn	25%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	8,878	2,820	₦422m	₦389m	11%	8.9 yr
250 1000m2	5,032	2,114	₦16.2bn	₦16bn	27%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	4,931	1,332	₦1.25bn	₦1.12bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	4,386	1,004	₦292m	₦292m	13%	8.1 yr
Over 1000m2	28	12	₦1.01bn	₦824m	27%	4.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	16,923	6,380	₦16.4bn	₦16.3bn	25%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	9,238	1,431	₦4.74bn	₦4.52bn	11%	7.6 yr
Rural	4,910	2,384	₦6.71bn	₦6.38bn	27%	4.1 yr
Urban	4,508	1,716	₦5.1bn	₦4.95bn	25%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	12,100	5,172	₦25bn	₦24.6bn	27%	4.1 yr
Shed	9,764	2,810	₦391m	₦391m	9%	9.9 yr
Residential Small	6,868	2,283	₦1.86bn	₦1.69bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	4,260	463	₦550m	₦550m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	1,119	364	₦691m	₦691m	25%	4.1 yr
Apartment	502	64	₦63.8m	₦63.8m	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	201	193	₦1.17bn	₦1.11bn	65%	1.6 yr
Duplex	158	10	₦15.1m	₦15.1m	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	124	111	₦902m	₦902m	57%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	124	119	₦40.5m	₦40.5m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial	113	107	₦579m	₦579m	49%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	68	62	₦276m	₦276m	81%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	35,579	11,911	₦32.9bn	₦32.1bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	35,037	11,404	₦29.4bn	₦28.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	314	300	₦1.75bn	₦1.69bn	51%	1.6 yr
Enterprise	228	207	₦1.72bn	₦1.64bn	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	14,140	6,139	₦27.4bn	₦26.9bn
0.0	9,603	2,802	₦383m	₦383m
4.0	5,016	851	₦2.61bn	₦2.61bn
2.0	4,962	1,667	₦1.98bn	₦1.86bn
1.0	1,818	416	₦213m	₦213m
5.0	39	35	₦266m	₦210m
6.0	1	1	₦12.5m	₦12.5m