Edo State

Rooftop solar in Esan Central, Edo: what the roofs are worth

Esan Central has 30,065 buildings with a viable rooftop and 826 MWp of roof capacity. 25% run a generator, and together they spend ₦20.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

30,065

Usable roof area

3.67 km²

826 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦20.5bn/yr

17.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Esan Central

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦20.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦20.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.09tn

NPV₦163bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy18.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity89.3 MWp

Capex₦87.9bn

Year-one energy value₦71.1bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.36tn

NPV₦559bn

Median IRR87%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Esan Central's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 89.3 MWp
Capital cost: ₦87.9bn
Year 1 savings: ₦71.1bn/yr
NPV: ₦559bn
Median IRR: 87%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Esan Central pays back quickly

Of the 29,635 buildings in Esan Central with a modelled payback, 68.5% pay back inside five years and 25.4% inside three.

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How much of Esan Central's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Esan Central consume 34.5 GWh/yr but want 52.9 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Esan Central

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Esan Central actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 29,635 buildings with a modelled result out of 30,065 in Esan Central. 24,639 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years7,541 (25%)

Under 5 years20,288 (68%)

Under 7 years24,610 (83%)

Under 10 years27,145 (92%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%26,692 (89%)

Above 15%24,639 (82%)

Above 20%21,601 (72%)

Above 25%16,076 (53%)

CO₂ avoided

38.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

9.84 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

18.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

146k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Esan Central.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Esan Central

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	14,098	3,697	₦9.95bn	₦9.88bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	8,900	2,016	₦5.73bn	₦5.72bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	6,004	1,557	₦4.46bn	₦4.26bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	1,063	339	₦324m	₦324m	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	28,161	6,766	₦14.8bn	₦14.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	1,112	432	₦3.03bn	₦3.03bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	413	100	₦44.5m	₦44.5m	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	253	207	₦2.12bn	₦2.1bn	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	81	65	₦313m	₦312m	51%	2.1 yr
Worship	37	32	₦136m	₦136m	57%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	8	7	₦6.41m	₦6.41m	47%	2.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	12,704	3,120	₦8.11bn	₦8.02bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	5,137	1,293	₦180m	₦177m	13%	6.9 yr
50 100m2	4,664	1,150	₦756m	₦755m	23%	4.6 yr
250 1000m2	4,503	1,245	₦9.32bn	₦9.13bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	2,993	763	₦195m	₦187m	19%	5.6 yr
Over 1000m2	64	38	₦1.92bn	₦1.92bn	61%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	12,629	2,381	₦5.96bn	₦5.83bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban Centre	6,845	1,623	₦4.45bn	₦4.45bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	6,541	2,329	₦6.06bn	₦6.02bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	2,190	435	₦2.3bn	₦2.21bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	1,860	841	₦1.7bn	₦1.67bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	11,958	3,143	₦13.1bn	₦12.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	8,100	2,039	₦1.13bn	₦1.13bn	21%	5.1 yr
Shed	4,278	1,136	₦149m	₦149m	15%	6.9 yr
Residential Formal	3,407	388	₦376m	₦366m	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial	620	211	₦1.47bn	₦1.47bn	35%	3.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	413	100	₦44.5m	₦44.5m	33%	3.4 yr
Apartment	365	54	₦37.1m	₦37.1m	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	286	61	₦866m	₦866m	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	194	156	₦1.71bn	₦1.71bn	49%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	92	72	₦253m	₦253m	75%	1.4 yr
School	70	58	₦197m	₦197m	71%	1.4 yr
Duplex	52	6	₦4.29m	₦4.29m	25%	4.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	30,065	7,609	₦20.5bn	₦20.2bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	28,828	7,065	₦15.8bn	₦15.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	914	279	₦2.34bn	₦2.34bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	323	265	₦2.32bn	₦2.3bn	53%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	16,570	4,480	₦16.7bn	₦16.4bn
0.0	4,280	1,137	₦149m	₦149m
2.0	4,247	1,146	₦969m	₦938m
4.0	3,746	539	₦1.65bn	₦1.64bn
1.0	723	298	₦87.6m	₦87.1m
5.0	414	8	₦720m	₦720m
6.0	85	1	₦201m	₦201m