Edo State

Rooftop solar in Etsako Central, Edo: what the roofs are worth

Etsako Central has 21,091 buildings with a viable rooftop and 576 MWp of roof capacity. 46% run a generator, and together they spend ₦40bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

21,091

Usable roof area

2.56 km²

576 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦40bn/yr

35.3 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Etsako Central

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦40bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦39.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.99tn

NPV₦311bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy13.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity79.1 MWp

Capex₦82.8bn

Year-one energy value₦73bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.45tn

NPV₦581bn

Median IRR87%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Etsako Central's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 79.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦82.8bn
Year 1 savings: ₦73bn/yr
NPV: ₦581bn
Median IRR: 87%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Etsako Central pays back quickly

Of the 21,003 buildings in Etsako Central with a modelled payback, 77.4% pay back inside five years and 45.3% inside three.

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How much of Etsako Central's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Etsako Central consume 49.2 GWh/yr but want 62.9 GWh/yr. The 22% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Etsako Central

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Etsako Central actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 21,003 buildings with a modelled result out of 21,091 in Etsako Central. 17,903 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years9,504 (45%)

Under 5 years16,266 (77%)

Under 7 years17,894 (85%)

Under 10 years18,810 (90%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%18,629 (88%)

Above 15%17,903 (85%)

Above 20%16,682 (79%)

Above 25%15,495 (73%)

CO₂ avoided

64.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

22.7 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

13.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

147k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Etsako Central.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Etsako Central

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	9,144	4,634	₦24.7bn	₦24.2bn	55%	1.9 yr
D	7,504	2,827	₦12.2bn	₦11.9bn	25%	4.1 yr
C	4,328	2,177	₦3.06bn	₦3.03bn	27%	4.1 yr
A	88	34	₦32.9m	₦32.9m	27%	4.1 yr
B	27	0	₦9.75m	₦9.75m	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	20,764	9,372	₦36.2bn	₦35.7bn	27%	4.1 yr
Anchor	179	162	₦2.52bn	₦2.23bn	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	122	114	₦1.21bn	₦1.21bn	55%	1.9 yr
Worship	11	10	₦31.6m	₦31.6m	61%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	9	9	₦5.06m	₦5.06m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	6	5	₦15.3m	₦15.3m	53%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	8,029	3,980	₦19.6bn	₦19.4bn	27%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	4,894	1,985	₦322m	₦319m	17%	6.1 yr
250 1000m2	3,534	1,605	₦16.9bn	₦16.5bn	27%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	2,543	1,172	₦1.37bn	₦1.37bn	25%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	2,063	910	₦348m	₦339m	23%	4.9 yr
Over 1000m2	28	20	₦1.42bn	₦1.39bn	61%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	9,559	3,398	₦8.31bn	₦8.15bn	25%	4.1 yr
Urban	4,762	3,064	₦13.9bn	₦13.7bn	61%	1.9 yr
Unclassified	4,593	1,309	₦8.19bn	₦7.88bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	2,177	1,901	₦9.65bn	₦9.52bn	73%	1.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	7,952	3,791	₦31bn	₦30.5bn	27%	4.1 yr
Shed	4,888	1,716	₦300m	₦300m	15%	6.6 yr
Residential Formal	4,114	1,883	₦2.36bn	₦2.36bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	3,357	1,734	₦2.16bn	₦2.15bn	55%	1.9 yr
Apartment	440	242	₦387m	₦387m	39%	2.6 yr
Institutional	105	94	₦1.04bn	₦1.04bn	53%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	65	60	₦540m	₦540m	75%	1.4 yr
School	42	38	₦248m	₦248m	69%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	33	30	₦742m	₦590m	51%	2.1 yr
Clinic	26	25	₦589m	₦454m	53%	1.9 yr
Commercial	24	24	₦501m	₦501m	59%	1.9 yr
Duplex	13	6	₦2.95m	₦2.95m	25%	4.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	21,091	9,672	₦40bn	₦39.2bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	20,882	9,481	₦37bn	₦36.5bn	27%	4.1 yr
Enterprise	185	167	₦2.54bn	₦2.25bn	63%	1.6 yr
SME High	24	24	₦501m	₦501m	59%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	9,090	4,699	₦32.9bn	₦32.3bn
0.0	4,876	1,713	₦297m	₦297m
4.0	4,118	1,972	₦3.55bn	₦3.51bn
2.0	2,555	1,068	₦2.94bn	₦2.87bn
1.0	450	218	₦142m	₦142m
5.0	2	2	₦149m	₦149m