Nigeria rooftop solar data

Rooftop solar in Zamfara State: buildings, spend and payback

1,796,395 buildings in Zamfara State carry a viable rooftop. Together they spend ₦317bn a year on grid power and generator fuel, and 5% of them run a generator.

Viable buildings

1,796,395

Usable roof area

61.5 km²

13.6 GWp of roof capacity

Current energy spend

₦317bn/yr

270 GWh/yr from generators

Median payback

8.4 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Zamfara

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦317bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦305bn

Lifetime cash saved₦16.6tn

NPV₦2.45tn

Median IRR11%

Median payback8.4 yr

Unlocked energy278 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity1.79 GWp

Capex₦1.91tn

Year-one energy value₦2.02tn

Lifetime energy value₦95.6tn

NPV₦16.5tn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Zamfara State's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 1.79 GWp
Capital cost: ₦1.91tn
Year 1 savings: ₦2.02tn/yr
NPV: ₦16.5tn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Zamfara State pays back quickly

Of the 1,785,263 buildings in Zamfara State with a modelled payback, 38.2% pay back inside five years and 5.6% inside three.

Payback under 5 years

38.2%

Payback under 3 years

5.6%

IRR above 20%

40.5%

Under 3 years · 6%3 – 5 years · 33%5 – 7 years · 8%7 – 10 years · 13%Over 10 years · 40%

Coverage: 99% of buildings in Zamfara State produced a payback figure. Buildings with no viable scenario are excluded rather than counted as zero.

How much of Zamfara State's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Zamfara State consume 631 GWh/yr but want 908 GWh/yr. The 31% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Met today · 69%Suppressed · 31%

Energy wanted

908 GWh/yr

Energy consumed

631 GWh/yr

Unmet demand

278 GWh/yr

Modelled latent demand, not metered consumption. It is the load buildings would run given affordable, available supply.

How many rooftops in Zamfara State actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 1,785,263 buildings with a modelled result out of 1,796,395 in Zamfara State. 824,032 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years99,221 (6%)

Under 5 years681,338 (38%)

Under 7 years825,164 (46%)

Under 10 years1,065,703 (60%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%987,359 (55%)

Above 15%824,032 (46%)

Above 20%727,297 (40%)

Above 25%586,698 (33%)

Electricity billing bands in Zamfara State

Loading band economics…

What a delivered unit costs, by DisCo

Grid tariff plus the generator running that fills the gap, blended across every building the DisCo serves. Ranked most expensive first — the higher the all-in rate, the stronger the case for solar.

Loading the league table…

Ikeja and Eko are reported together as Lagos. Rates are modelled blends of billed grid energy and generator running, not published tariffs.

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Zamfara State.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Where the opportunity sits

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	748,813	26,557	₦84.3bn	₦78.6bn	9%	9.9 yr
E	611,811	21,535	₦62.9bn	₦60.3bn	9%	9.9 yr
C	276,143	19,114	₦87.5bn	₦85.3bn	21%	4.9 yr
B	82,376	14,405	₦47.8bn	₦47bn	29%	3.6 yr
A	77,252	13,326	₦34.2bn	₦33.6bn	31%	3.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	1,759,806	66,379	₦204bn	₦195bn	11%	8.6 yr
Commercial Retail	15,012	11,894	₦3.68bn	₦3.67bn	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	12,521	9,762	₦55.3bn	₦55bn	55%	1.9 yr
Anchor	5,032	3,856	₦50.9bn	₦48.8bn	65%	1.6 yr
Worship	3,776	2,896	₦1.31bn	₦1.31bn	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	178	99	₦868m	₦803m	49%	2.1 yr
Hospitality	33	26	₦569m	₦518m	47%	2.4 yr
Filling Station	19	13	₦25.6m	₦25.6m	49%	2.1 yr
Mall Retail	12	8	₦128m	₦118m	49%	2.1 yr
Productive Use	5	3	₦9.52m	₦8.73m	45%	2.4 yr
Automotive	1	1	₦507k	₦507k	41%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	936,990	30,183	₦8.26bn	₦8.15bn	7%	15.1 yr
50 100m2	367,194	23,171	₦49.3bn	₦47.6bn	31%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	331,394	15,968	₦11bn	₦10.8bn	13%	7.9 yr
100 250m2	136,902	18,820	₦90.1bn	₦85.7bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	23,125	6,373	₦106bn	₦103bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	790	422	₦51.7bn	₦49.9bn	49%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Rural	448,523	14,991	₦29.6bn	₦29.2bn	9%	9.9 yr
Unclassified	423,853	8,438	₦59.3bn	₦53.5bn	5%	15.9 yr
Urban	420,749	20,967	₦82.5bn	₦78.2bn	11%	8.9 yr
Dense Urban	261,250	20,333	₦61.4bn	₦61bn	23%	4.9 yr
Urban Centre	242,020	30,208	₦83.8bn	₦83bn	29%	3.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	1,006,628	19,934	₦5.77bn	₦5.77bn	7%	14.6 yr
Residential Small	360,764	19,615	₦49.1bn	₦47.1bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Informal	185,147	11,956	₦25.1bn	₦24.9bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	138,805	11,749	₦119bn	₦112bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	66,877	2,710	₦4.8bn	₦4.8bn	25%	4.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	15,010	11,891	₦3.64bn	₦3.64bn	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial	5,287	4,161	₦28.5bn	₦28.4bn	55%	1.9 yr
Institutional	3,847	2,950	₦39.8bn	₦39.2bn	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	3,838	3,201	₦17.7bn	₦17.6bn	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	1,845	1,402	₦3.43bn	₦3.43bn	91%	1.1 yr
School	1,367	1,047	₦1.78bn	₦1.78bn	87%	1.1 yr
Worship Center	1,269	971	₦294m	₦294m	69%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	1,794,847	94,872	₦316bn	₦304bn
Farmland	1,399	1	₦22m	₦22m
Industrial	123	64	₦861m	₦861m
Farmyard	26	0	₦655k	₦655k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	1,782,140	83,664	₦219bn	₦209bn	11%	8.6 yr
SME High	9,196	7,415	₦46.7bn	₦46.5bn	55%	1.9 yr
Enterprise	5,059	3,858	₦51.3bn	₦49.2bn	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	993,639	20,514	₦5.69bn	₦5.69bn
2.0	303,372	21,387	₦41.8bn	₦39.7bn
3.0	237,023	26,781	₦174bn	₦165bn
1.0	135,675	12,828	₦13.6bn	₦12.8bn
4.0	122,856	10,570	₦55.9bn	₦55.6bn
5.0	3,229	2,412	₦14.6bn	₦14.5bn
6.0	601	445	₦11.6bn	₦11.5bn