Zamfara State

Rooftop solar in Talata Mafara, Zamfara: what the roofs are worth

Talata Mafara has 115,487 buildings with a viable rooftop and 928 MWp of roof capacity. 7% run a generator, and together they spend ₦35.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

115,487

Usable roof area

4.17 km²

928 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦35.8bn/yr

32.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.1 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Talata Mafara

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦35.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦34.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.84tn

NPV₦275bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback9.1 yr

Unlocked energy25.8 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity163 MWp

Capex₦170bn

Year-one energy value₦178bn

Lifetime energy value₦8.34tn

NPV₦1.44tn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Talata Mafara's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 163 MWp
Capital cost: ₦170bn
Year 1 savings: ₦178bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.44tn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Talata Mafara pays back quickly

Of the 115,337 buildings in Talata Mafara with a modelled payback, 39.7% pay back inside five years and 6.9% inside three.

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How much of Talata Mafara's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Talata Mafara consume 70.3 GWh/yr but want 96.1 GWh/yr. The 27% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Talata Mafara

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Talata Mafara actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 115,337 buildings with a modelled result out of 115,487 in Talata Mafara. 51,296 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years7,988 (7%)

Under 5 years45,769 (40%)

Under 7 years51,342 (45%)

Under 10 years64,971 (56%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%59,853 (52%)

Above 15%51,296 (44%)

Above 20%47,510 (41%)

Above 25%41,679 (36%)

CO₂ avoided

62.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

14.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

25.8 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

533k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Talata Mafara.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Talata Mafara

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	46,611	1,127	₦7.78bn	₦7.12bn	9%	13.4 yr
E	37,588	1,197	₦6.08bn	₦5.71bn	9%	13.6 yr
B	21,491	3,899	₦16.1bn	₦15.7bn	31%	3.6 yr
C	9,797	1,405	₦5.8bn	₦5.79bn	17%	6.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	112,214	5,058	₦19.8bn	₦18.4bn	11%	9.4 yr
Commercial General	1,312	1,045	₦10.5bn	₦10.4bn	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	981	800	₦359m	₦359m	51%	2.1 yr
Worship	565	392	₦184m	₦184m	63%	1.6 yr
Anchor	393	314	₦4.89bn	₦4.82bn	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	17	15	₦70.2m	₦69.8m	77%	1.4 yr
Filling Station	4	4	₦5.48m	₦5.48m	51%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	1	0	₦2.6m	₦2.6m	39%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	61,291	2,065	₦589m	₦588m	7%	15.4 yr
50 100m2	22,230	1,719	₦4.45bn	₦3.99bn	31%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	20,132	1,054	₦959m	₦836m	13%	8.4 yr
100 250m2	9,729	1,977	₦10.2bn	₦9.44bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	2,046	774	₦14bn	₦13.9bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	59	39	₦5.57bn	₦5.51bn	67%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	30,795	761	₦7.02bn	₦5.97bn	7%	15.6 yr
Urban	28,143	1,177	₦5.08bn	₦4.81bn	9%	9.6 yr
Rural	25,818	574	₦2.72bn	₦2.71bn	9%	13.4 yr
Urban Centre	21,105	3,903	₦14.5bn	₦14.3bn	31%	3.6 yr
Dense Urban	9,626	1,213	₦6.46bn	₦6.46bn	21%	4.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	66,409	1,135	₦373m	₦373m	7%	15.1 yr
Residential Small	20,515	1,028	₦4.17bn	₦3.6bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Informal	12,437	319	₦1.37bn	₦1.33bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	7,342	857	₦11.3bn	₦10.5bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	4,867	1,438	₦2.26bn	₦2.26bn	31%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	981	800	₦359m	₦359m	51%	2.1 yr
Commercial	728	594	₦8bn	₦7.94bn	53%	2.1 yr
Apartment	449	201	₦261m	₦261m	31%	3.4 yr
Institutional	396	297	₦3.61bn	₦3.61bn	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	342	278	₦1.86bn	₦1.86bn	55%	1.9 yr
Duplex	195	80	₦101m	₦101m	31%	3.4 yr
Worship Center	191	134	₦48.5m	₦48.5m	67%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	115,487	7,628	₦35.8bn	₦34.3bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	114,011	6,434	₦21bn	₦19.6bn	11%	9.1 yr
SME High	1,078	877	₦9.87bn	₦9.82bn	53%	1.9 yr
Enterprise	398	317	₦4.89bn	₦4.82bn	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	65,562	1,235	₦373m	₦373m
2.0	17,392	1,245	₦3.48bn	₦3.11bn
3.0	13,781	1,854	₦17.1bn	₦16.4bn
4.0	9,276	1,929	₦5.74bn	₦5.7bn
1.0	8,887	924	₦1.52bn	₦1.19bn
5.0	403	287	₦2.11bn	₦2.11bn
6.0	186	154	₦5.45bn	₦5.4bn