Zamfara State

Rooftop solar in Bukkuyum, Zamfara: what the roofs are worth

Bukkuyum has 124,391 buildings with a viable rooftop and 692 MWp of roof capacity. 3% run a generator, and together they spend ₦9.78bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

124,391

Usable roof area

3.14 km²

692 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦9.78bn/yr

7.58 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.4 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Bukkuyum

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦9.78bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦9.11bn

Lifetime cash saved₦513bn

NPV₦71.9bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.4 yr

Unlocked energy10.8 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity98.5 MWp

Capex₦108bn

Year-one energy value₦121bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.76tn

NPV₦1tn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Bukkuyum's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 98.5 MWp
Capital cost: ₦108bn
Year 1 savings: ₦121bn/yr
NPV: ₦1tn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Bukkuyum pays back quickly

Of the 123,733 buildings in Bukkuyum with a modelled payback, 26.2% pay back inside five years and 3.4% inside three.

Create a free account

How much of Bukkuyum's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Bukkuyum consume 19.6 GWh/yr but want 30.4 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Create a free account

Electricity billing bands in Bukkuyum

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Bukkuyum actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 123,733 buildings with a modelled result out of 124,391 in Bukkuyum. 36,987 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years4,246 (3%)

Under 5 years32,363 (26%)

Under 7 years37,024 (30%)

Under 10 years49,463 (40%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%44,481 (36%)

Above 15%36,987 (30%)

Above 20%33,939 (27%)

Above 25%29,020 (23%)

CO₂ avoided

19 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.89 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

10.8 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

434k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Bukkuyum.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Bukkuyum

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	64,842	1,609	₦4.12bn	₦3.8bn	7%	14.9 yr
E	49,666	1,858	₦3.46bn	₦3.3bn	7%	14.4 yr
C	9,883	716	₦2.2bn	₦2.01bn	17%	6.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	123,294	3,395	₦7.86bn	₦7.25bn	7%	14.4 yr
Commercial Retail	428	324	₦101m	₦101m	71%	1.4 yr
Worship	235	160	₦62.9m	₦62.9m	63%	1.6 yr
Anchor	226	161	₦1.36bn	₦1.3bn	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	207	143	₦398m	₦398m	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial	1	0	₦272k	₦272k	39%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	76,403	1,504	₦431m	₦431m	5%	16.6 yr
50 100m2	22,009	1,218	₦2.99bn	₦2.78bn	29%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	20,447	756	₦582m	₦582m	11%	9.1 yr
100 250m2	4,978	569	₦2.5bn	₦2.27bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	537	130	₦2.34bn	₦2.12bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	17	6	₦930m	₦925m	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Rural	54,620	2,419	₦3.66bn	₦3.63bn	9%	13.4 yr
Unclassified	53,691	301	₦3.45bn	₦2.81bn	5%	16.6 yr
Dense Urban	8,412	1,253	₦2.08bn	₦2.08bn	27%	3.9 yr
Urban	7,668	210	₦583m	₦583m	9%	13.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	85,813	1,197	₦330m	₦330m	5%	16.1 yr
Residential Small	26,630	1,565	₦3.28bn	₦3.07bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	7,328	632	₦4.09bn	₦3.69bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential Informal	1,810	0	₦51.7m	₦51.7m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	1,712	1	₦100m	₦100m	31%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	428	324	₦101m	₦101m	71%	1.4 yr
Institutional	181	123	₦629m	₦629m	61%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	94	64	₦154m	₦154m	89%	1.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	91	64	₦98.7m	₦98.7m	73%	1.4 yr
Place Of Worship	81	54	₦15.5m	₦15.5m	67%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	76	54	₦11.5m	₦11.5m	69%	1.6 yr
School	56	40	₦74m	₦74m	89%	1.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	124,391	4,183	₦9.78bn	₦9.11bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	124,059	3,949	₦8.31bn	₦7.7bn	7%	14.4 yr
Enterprise	226	160	₦1.36bn	₦1.3bn	61%	1.6 yr
SME High	106	74	₦112m	₦112m	73%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	85,861	1,225	₦333m	₦333m
2.0	18,482	1,205	₦2.63bn	₦2.39bn
1.0	9,683	739	₦962m	₦929m
3.0	8,895	1,005	₦5.52bn	₦5.12bn
4.0	1,470	9	₦335m	₦335m