Zamfara State

Rooftop solar in Bungudu, Zamfara: what the roofs are worth

Bungudu has 178,242 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.4 GWp of roof capacity. 8% run a generator, and together they spend ₦41bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

178,242

Usable roof area

6.34 km²

1.4 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦41bn/yr

38.3 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

6.9 yr

Median IRR 15% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Bungudu

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦41bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦40.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.19tn

NPV₦331bn

Median IRR15%

Median payback6.9 yr

Unlocked energy32.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity214 MWp

Capex₦226bn

Year-one energy value₦244bn

Lifetime energy value₦11.6tn

NPV₦2.01tn

Median IRR111%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Bungudu's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 214 MWp
Capital cost: ₦226bn
Year 1 savings: ₦244bn/yr
NPV: ₦2.01tn
Median IRR: 111%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Bungudu pays back quickly

Of the 177,795 buildings in Bungudu with a modelled payback, 41.9% pay back inside five years and 8.1% inside three.

Create a free account

How much of Bungudu's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Bungudu consume 75.5 GWh/yr but want 108 GWh/yr. The 30% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Create a free account

Electricity billing bands in Bungudu

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Bungudu actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 177,795 buildings with a modelled result out of 178,242 in Bungudu. 89,357 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years14,377 (8%)

Under 5 years74,506 (42%)

Under 7 years89,480 (50%)

Under 10 years118,066 (66%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%109,098 (61%)

Above 15%89,357 (50%)

Above 20%79,502 (45%)

Above 25%64,374 (36%)

CO₂ avoided

73.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

18 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

32.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

590k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Bungudu.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Bungudu

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	84,107	7,032	₦14.9bn	₦14.9bn	11%	8.6 yr
E	54,843	2,762	₦7.13bn	₦6.83bn	11%	9.1 yr
C	35,132	3,502	₦15.9bn	₦15.9bn	23%	4.6 yr
B	4,160	317	₦3.05bn	₦2.82bn	29%	3.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	173,472	10,033	₦24.1bn	₦23.8bn	13%	7.6 yr
Commercial General	1,490	1,206	₦10.9bn	₦10.9bn	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	1,424	812	₦324m	₦324m	43%	2.4 yr
Worship	1,380	1,145	₦433m	₦433m	67%	1.6 yr
Anchor	467	413	₦5.21bn	₦4.97bn	71%	1.4 yr
Industrial	9	4	₦20.5m	₦20.5m	43%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	85,849	4,602	₦1.18bn	₦1.11bn	7%	14.1 yr
50 100m2	40,194	3,343	₦6.67bn	₦6.66bn	31%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	36,221	2,441	₦1.48bn	₦1.47bn	13%	7.9 yr
100 250m2	13,700	2,395	₦12.1bn	₦11.9bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	2,175	765	₦13.5bn	₦13.4bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	103	67	₦6.14bn	₦5.9bn	63%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	91,524	6,672	₦20.6bn	₦20.1bn	11%	8.4 yr
Unclassified	32,525	1,578	₦6.86bn	₦6.72bn	7%	14.1 yr
Dense Urban	30,252	3,627	₦10.7bn	₦10.7bn	23%	4.6 yr
Rural	21,887	1,540	₦2.17bn	₦2.17bn	13%	8.1 yr
Urban Centre	2,054	196	₦768m	₦768m	31%	3.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	98,765	4,027	₦944m	₦944m	9%	13.6 yr
Residential Small	40,312	3,727	₦7.15bn	₦7.07bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	15,504	1,974	₦14.3bn	₦14.1bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Informal	14,231	305	₦1.63bn	₦1.62bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	4,649	0	₦91.2m	₦91.2m	23%	4.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,424	812	₦324m	₦324m	43%	2.4 yr
Commercial	981	781	₦8.94bn	₦8.92bn	59%	1.9 yr
Institutional	708	602	₦4.52bn	₦4.28bn	63%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	465	382	₦85.5m	₦85.5m	69%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	458	386	₦84.1m	₦84.1m	69%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	250	201	₦1.32bn	₦1.32bn	45%	2.4 yr
Educational Facility	158	140	₦345m	₦345m	95%	1.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	178,122	13,565	₦40.2bn	₦39.6bn
Industrial	104	48	₦836m	₦836m
Farmland	16	0	₦30.6k	₦30.6k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	176,540	12,216	₦25.5bn	₦25.2bn	15%	7.1 yr
SME High	1,231	982	₦10.3bn	₦10.2bn	55%	1.9 yr
Enterprise	471	415	₦5.22bn	₦4.98bn	71%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	96,618	4,228	₦937m	₦937m
2.0	33,335	3,278	₦5.85bn	₦5.78bn
3.0	23,507	3,399	₦21.6bn	₦21.1bn
1.0	16,396	1,689	₦1.79bn	₦1.77bn
4.0	7,616	428	₦5.53bn	₦5.52bn
5.0	632	478	₦3.1bn	₦3.08bn
6.0	138	113	₦2.21bn	₦2.21bn