Zamfara State

Rooftop solar in Birnin Magaji-Kiyaw, Zamfara: what the roofs are worth

Birnin Magaji-Kiyaw has 83,936 buildings with a viable rooftop and 542 MWp of roof capacity. 2% run a generator, and together they spend ₦10.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

83,936

Usable roof area

2.45 km²

542 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦10.2bn/yr

8.06 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

8.9 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Birnin Magaji-Kiyaw

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦10.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦9.49bn

Lifetime cash saved₦524bn

NPV₦76.5bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback8.9 yr

Unlocked energy11.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity98.3 MWp

Capex₦106bn

Year-one energy value₦125bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.9tn

NPV₦1.03tn

Median IRR115%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Birnin Magaji-Kiyaw's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 98.3 MWp
Capital cost: ₦106bn
Year 1 savings: ₦125bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.03tn
Median IRR: 115%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Birnin Magaji-Kiyaw pays back quickly

Of the 83,764 buildings in Birnin Magaji-Kiyaw with a modelled payback, 37.2% pay back inside five years and 2.0% inside three.

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How much of Birnin Magaji-Kiyaw's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Birnin Magaji-Kiyaw consume 21.5 GWh/yr but want 33.1 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Birnin Magaji-Kiyaw

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Birnin Magaji-Kiyaw actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 83,764 buildings with a modelled result out of 83,936 in Birnin Magaji-Kiyaw. 35,448 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years1,653 (2%)

Under 5 years31,196 (37%)

Under 7 years35,491 (42%)

Under 10 years50,850 (61%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%45,799 (55%)

Above 15%35,448 (42%)

Above 20%32,585 (39%)

Above 25%27,926 (33%)

CO₂ avoided

19.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.84 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

11.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

387k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Birnin Magaji-Kiyaw.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Birnin Magaji-Kiyaw

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	37,289	562	₦5.74bn	₦5.29bn	9%	9.4 yr
E	33,205	759	₦2.85bn	₦2.59bn	11%	8.9 yr
C	13,442	315	₦1.63bn	₦1.61bn	21%	5.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	83,475	1,233	₦7.64bn	₦7.06bn	11%	8.9 yr
Anchor	238	205	₦2.09bn	₦1.94bn	83%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	145	126	₦452m	₦452m	63%	1.6 yr
Worship	57	51	₦19.9m	₦19.9m	67%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	21	21	₦13.3m	₦13.3m	73%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	45,508	623	₦318m	₦318m	7%	14.4 yr
50 100m2	17,273	380	₦2.59bn	₦2.58bn	31%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	15,696	254	₦550m	₦540m	13%	8.1 yr
100 250m2	5,003	272	₦3.25bn	₦2.86bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	438	98	₦2.19bn	₦2.02bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	18	9	₦1.32bn	₦1.17bn	33%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Rural	31,349	523	₦1.53bn	₦1.53bn	9%	9.4 yr
Dense Urban	21,800	424	₦2.29bn	₦2.27bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	16,717	245	₦3.29bn	₦2.92bn	11%	9.1 yr
Unclassified	14,070	444	₦3.11bn	₦2.77bn	7%	15.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	47,630	488	₦178m	₦178m	7%	14.1 yr
Residential Small	20,910	554	₦3.36bn	₦3.33bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	9,066	191	₦3.88bn	₦3.33bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	5,859	0	₦219m	₦219m	29%	3.9 yr
Institutional	138	117	₦1.22bn	₦1.09bn	63%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	87	73	₦178m	₦178m	95%	1.1 yr
School	60	49	₦95m	₦95m	91%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	49	45	₦660m	₦643m	61%	1.6 yr
Clinic	34	30	₦57.9m	₦57.8m	59%	1.6 yr
Commercial	31	31	₦195m	₦195m	65%	1.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	21	21	₦13.3m	₦13.3m	73%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	19	17	₦6.63m	₦6.63m	73%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	83,931	1,636	₦10.2bn	₦9.49bn
Farmland	5	0	₦8.75k	₦8.75k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	83,667	1,400	₦7.93bn	₦7.35bn	11%	8.9 yr
Enterprise	238	205	₦2.09bn	₦1.94bn	83%	1.4 yr
SME High	31	31	₦195m	₦195m	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	47,642	497	₦179m	₦179m
2.0	14,822	473	₦2.01bn	₦2bn
3.0	10,417	469	₦7.18bn	₦6.48bn
1.0	5,999	174	₦467m	₦454m
4.0	5,056	23	₦371m	₦371m