Zamfara State

Rooftop solar in Zurmi, Zamfara: what the roofs are worth

Zurmi has 155,188 buildings with a viable rooftop and 797 MWp of roof capacity. 2% run a generator, and together they spend ₦15.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

155,188

Usable roof area

3.6 km²

797 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦15.3bn/yr

12.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

13.9 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Zurmi

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦15.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦14.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦790bn

NPV₦114bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback13.9 yr

Unlocked energy14 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity117 MWp

Capex₦127bn

Year-one energy value₦146bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.88tn

NPV₦1.2tn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Zurmi's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 117 MWp
Capital cost: ₦127bn
Year 1 savings: ₦146bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.2tn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Zurmi pays back quickly

Of the 154,827 buildings in Zurmi with a modelled payback, 25.8% pay back inside five years and 2.1% inside three.

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How much of Zurmi's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Zurmi consume 29.3 GWh/yr but want 43.3 GWh/yr. The 32% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Zurmi

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Zurmi actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 154,827 buildings with a modelled result out of 155,188 in Zurmi. 48,820 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,184 (2%)

Under 5 years39,925 (26%)

Under 7 years48,879 (32%)

Under 10 years67,477 (44%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%60,470 (39%)

Above 15%48,820 (31%)

Above 20%42,739 (28%)

Above 25%34,837 (22%)

CO₂ avoided

28.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

6.36 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

14 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

464k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Zurmi.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Zurmi

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	70,915	593	₦5bn	₦4.5bn	7%	14.9 yr
E	64,304	1,402	₦4.26bn	₦4.01bn	9%	13.9 yr
C	19,969	1,103	₦6.04bn	₦5.9bn	21%	5.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	153,366	1,648	₦11.9bn	₦11bn	7%	13.9 yr
Commercial Retail	617	552	₦100m	₦100m	41%	2.6 yr
Anchor	440	322	₦2.09bn	₦2.02bn	81%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	420	352	₦1.21bn	₦1.21bn	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	329	215	₦60.4m	₦60.4m	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial	16	9	₦6.21m	₦6.21m	45%	2.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	100,325	1,158	₦486m	₦484m	5%	16.1 yr
30 50m2	25,411	465	₦625m	₦621m	11%	8.9 yr
50 100m2	22,886	685	₦2.66bn	₦2.64bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	5,855	578	₦5.07bn	₦4.68bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	695	205	₦5.57bn	₦5.08bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	16	7	₦901m	₦901m	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Rural	56,190	562	₦1.88bn	₦1.84bn	9%	13.6 yr
Unclassified	50,182	416	₦3.86bn	₦3.24bn	5%	17.1 yr
Dense Urban	28,342	1,738	₦7.77bn	₦7.7bn	23%	4.6 yr
Urban	20,474	382	₦1.8bn	₦1.63bn	9%	12.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	106,121	484	₦309m	₦309m	7%	15.9 yr
Residential Small	28,012	779	₦3.2bn	₦3.18bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	10,937	383	₦7.98bn	₦7.17bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	5,667	2	₦300m	₦300m	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	2,628	0	₦59.7m	₦59.7m	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	617	552	₦100m	₦100m	41%	2.6 yr
Institutional	335	241	₦1.23bn	₦1.23bn	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	189	138	₦321m	₦321m	89%	1.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	172	164	₦468m	₦468m	43%	2.4 yr
School	127	92	₦178m	₦178m	87%	1.1 yr
Place Of Worship	111	72	₦12.7m	₦12.7m	67%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	108	71	₦15.3m	₦15.3m	67%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	155,167	3,098	₦15.3bn	₦14.4bn
Farmland	21	0	₦267k	₦267k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	154,574	2,612	₦12.6bn	₦11.7bn	7%	13.9 yr
Enterprise	418	305	₦2.07bn	₦2bn	73%	1.4 yr
SME High	196	181	₦689m	₦687m	43%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	106,229	546	₦315m	₦315m
2.0	22,327	933	₦2.42bn	₦2.35bn
3.0	13,274	984	₦10.9bn	₦10bn
1.0	9,351	449	₦680m	₦679m
4.0	3,958	139	₦983m	₦982m
5.0	48	46	₦51.2m	₦51.2m
6.0	1	1	₦4.97m	₦4.97m