Zamfara State

Rooftop solar in Bakura, Zamfara: what the roofs are worth

Bakura has 74,228 buildings with a viable rooftop and 513 MWp of roof capacity. 7% run a generator, and together they spend ₦23.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

74,228

Usable roof area

2.32 km²

513 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦23.4bn/yr

20.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

8.6 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Bakura

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦23.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦21.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.11tn

NPV₦173bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback8.6 yr

Unlocked energy10 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity77.9 MWp

Capex₦83.6bn

Year-one energy value₦92.5bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.38tn

NPV₦760bn

Median IRR109%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Bakura's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 77.9 MWp
Capital cost: ₦83.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦92.5bn/yr
NPV: ₦760bn
Median IRR: 109%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Bakura pays back quickly

Of the 74,081 buildings in Bakura with a modelled payback, 37.0% pay back inside five years and 6.8% inside three.

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How much of Bakura's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Bakura consume 33.2 GWh/yr but want 43.2 GWh/yr. The 23% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Bakura

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Bakura actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 74,081 buildings with a modelled result out of 74,228 in Bakura. 33,775 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years5,041 (7%)

Under 5 years27,419 (37%)

Under 7 years33,823 (46%)

Under 10 years44,486 (60%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%40,902 (55%)

Above 15%33,775 (46%)

Above 20%29,343 (40%)

Above 25%23,117 (31%)

CO₂ avoided

36.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

11.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

10 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

230k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Bakura.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Bakura

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	31,537	1,749	₦6.54bn	₦6.31bn	9%	9.4 yr
D	27,856	614	₦6.2bn	₦4.98bn	9%	9.6 yr
C	14,835	2,628	₦10.6bn	₦10.1bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	72,842	3,793	₦19.6bn	₦17.9bn	11%	8.6 yr
Commercial Retail	585	526	₦244m	₦244m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	355	309	₦1.61bn	₦1.61bn	63%	1.6 yr
Anchor	240	214	₦1.71bn	₦1.48bn	89%	1.1 yr
Worship	181	140	₦111m	₦111m	67%	1.6 yr
Industrial	25	9	₦59.7m	₦59.7m	39%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	41,047	1,644	₦486m	₦485m	7%	14.6 yr
50 100m2	14,171	1,263	₦2.88bn	₦2.88bn	31%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	13,390	837	₦631m	₦631m	13%	7.6 yr
100 250m2	4,854	896	₦7.81bn	₦6.76bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	737	332	₦9.7bn	₦8.8bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	29	19	₦1.85bn	₦1.85bn	77%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Rural	24,707	1,022	₦3.63bn	₦3.41bn	9%	9.9 yr
Dense Urban	22,202	1,869	₦8.68bn	₦8.45bn	23%	4.9 yr
Unclassified	15,343	479	₦3.55bn	₦2.82bn	7%	15.9 yr
Urban	11,976	1,621	₦7.5bn	₦6.72bn	13%	7.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	44,010	1,468	₦384m	₦384m	7%	14.1 yr
Residential Small	13,339	1,396	₦3.09bn	₦3.09bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	6,253	924	₦15.7bn	₦14bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential Informal	5,739	5	₦414m	₦414m	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	3,492	0	₦37.2m	₦37.2m	17%	6.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	585	526	₦244m	₦244m	63%	1.6 yr
Institutional	193	157	₦1.14bn	₦1.14bn	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial	168	163	₦794m	₦794m	65%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	92	85	₦242m	₦242m	93%	1.1 yr
School	78	68	₦95.1m	₦95.1m	91%	1.1 yr
Worship Center	61	47	₦19m	₦19m	69%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	60	47	₦10.7m	₦10.7m	69%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	74,219	4,991	₦23.4bn	₦21.4bn
Farmland	9	0	₦283k	₦283k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	73,768	4,581	₦20.5bn	₦18.8bn	11%	8.6 yr
Enterprise	248	217	₦1.72bn	₦1.5bn	87%	1.1 yr
SME High	212	193	₦1.14bn	₦1.14bn	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	44,069	1,520	₦390m	₦390m
2.0	11,893	960	₦3.6bn	₦3.06bn
3.0	9,570	1,603	₦17.3bn	₦15.9bn
1.0	5,010	858	₦833m	₦830m
4.0	3,682	48	₦1.09bn	₦1.08bn
5.0	4	2	₦182m	₦182m