Zamfara State

Rooftop solar in Gummi, Zamfara: what the roofs are worth

Gummi has 140,809 buildings with a viable rooftop and 824 MWp of roof capacity. 2% run a generator, and together they spend ₦10.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

140,809

Usable roof area

3.73 km²

824 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦10.2bn/yr

8.79 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.9 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Gummi

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦10.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦9.88bn

Lifetime cash saved₦557bn

NPV₦76.8bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback9.9 yr

Unlocked energy12.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity95.8 MWp

Capex₦104bn

Year-one energy value₦111bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.28tn

NPV₦914bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Gummi's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 95.8 MWp
Capital cost: ₦104bn
Year 1 savings: ₦111bn/yr
NPV: ₦914bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Gummi pays back quickly

Of the 140,017 buildings in Gummi with a modelled payback, 27.5% pay back inside five years and 1.6% inside three.

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How much of Gummi's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Gummi consume 23.1 GWh/yr but want 35.6 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Gummi

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Gummi actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 140,017 buildings with a modelled result out of 140,809 in Gummi. 51,107 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years2,278 (2%)

Under 5 years38,452 (27%)

Under 7 years51,220 (37%)

Under 10 years71,598 (51%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%64,841 (46%)

Above 15%51,107 (36%)

Above 20%41,855 (30%)

Above 25%31,435 (22%)

CO₂ avoided

20.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.63 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

12.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

343k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Gummi.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Gummi

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	59,326	657	₦3.77bn	₦3.66bn	9%	13.4 yr
E	52,746	291	₦1.67bn	₦1.67bn	9%	13.6 yr
C	28,737	1,272	₦4.77bn	₦4.55bn	19%	5.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	139,877	1,415	₦5.78bn	₦5.56bn	9%	9.9 yr
Commercial General	392	342	₦2.16bn	₦2.16bn	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	285	278	₦112m	₦112m	59%	1.9 yr
Anchor	240	178	₦2.15bn	₦2.04bn	63%	1.6 yr
Worship	15	7	₦5.48m	₦5.48m	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	82,658	637	₦335m	₦335m	7%	15.4 yr
30 50m2	25,892	335	₦436m	₦436m	11%	8.4 yr
50 100m2	25,168	583	₦1.9bn	₦1.9bn	29%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	6,325	491	₦3.07bn	₦2.86bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	746	161	₦2.72bn	₦2.72bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	20	13	₦1.74bn	₦1.63bn	67%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Rural	42,395	141	₦1.28bn	₦1.28bn	7%	14.1 yr
Urban	30,279	359	₦1.99bn	₦1.99bn	9%	9.4 yr
Unclassified	27,092	198	₦2.62bn	₦2.3bn	5%	16.6 yr
Urban Centre	22,511	1,372	₦3.06bn	₦3.06bn	21%	5.4 yr
Dense Urban	18,532	150	₦1.24bn	₦1.24bn	15%	6.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	85,467	512	₦282m	₦282m	7%	15.1 yr
Residential Small	25,692	638	₦1.98bn	₦1.98bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	11,777	0	₦151m	₦151m	19%	5.4 yr
Residential	10,496	265	₦3.11bn	₦2.9bn	21%	5.1 yr
Residential Informal	6,442	0	₦251m	₦251m	27%	4.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	285	278	₦112m	₦112m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	248	229	₦1.8bn	₦1.8bn	61%	1.6 yr
Institutional	132	101	₦1.8bn	₦1.69bn	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	90	65	₦130m	₦130m	89%	1.1 yr
School	56	39	₦44.2m	₦44.2m	87%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	46	36	₦242m	₦242m	59%	1.9 yr
Clinic	36	29	₦112m	₦112m	59%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	139,676	2,220	₦10.2bn	₦9.87bn
Farmland	1,133	0	₦15.2m	₦15.2m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	140,298	1,791	₦6.08bn	₦5.87bn	9%	9.9 yr
SME High	272	252	₦1.98bn	₦1.98bn	61%	1.6 yr
Enterprise	239	177	₦2.14bn	₦2.04bn	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	85,409	512	₦282m	₦282m
2.0	20,618	376	₦1.29bn	₦1.29bn
3.0	14,459	895	₦6.08bn	₦5.76bn
4.0	11,176	91	₦1.42bn	₦1.42bn
1.0	9,081	285	₦529m	₦529m
5.0	63	58	₦571m	₦571m
6.0	3	3	₦30.9m	₦30.9m