Zamfara State

Rooftop solar in Maradun, Zamfara: what the roofs are worth

Maradun has 94,272 buildings with a viable rooftop and 547 MWp of roof capacity. 3% run a generator, and together they spend ₦13.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

94,272

Usable roof area

2.48 km²

547 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦13.9bn/yr

10.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.6 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Maradun

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦13.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦12.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦703bn

NPV₦101bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback9.6 yr

Unlocked energy15.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity111 MWp

Capex₦120bn

Year-one energy value₦140bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.5tn

NPV₦1.14tn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Maradun's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 111 MWp
Capital cost: ₦120bn
Year 1 savings: ₦140bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.14tn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Maradun pays back quickly

Of the 94,173 buildings in Maradun with a modelled payback, 32.7% pay back inside five years and 2.9% inside three.

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How much of Maradun's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Maradun consume 29.4 GWh/yr but want 44.6 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Maradun

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Maradun actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 94,173 buildings with a modelled result out of 94,272 in Maradun. 38,427 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years2,722 (3%)

Under 5 years30,801 (33%)

Under 7 years38,467 (41%)

Under 10 years49,661 (53%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%45,518 (48%)

Above 15%38,427 (41%)

Above 20%33,386 (35%)

Above 25%26,583 (28%)

CO₂ avoided

26.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.99 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

15.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

524k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Maradun.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Maradun

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	42,533	1,119	₦4.87bn	₦4.64bn	11%	9.1 yr
D	40,852	430	₦3.59bn	₦2.92bn	7%	14.1 yr
C	10,887	1,046	₦5.39bn	₦4.9bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	92,871	1,630	₦10.4bn	₦9.53bn	9%	9.6 yr
Commercial General	498	227	₦572m	₦572m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	429	367	₦61.9m	₦61.9m	69%	1.6 yr
Anchor	247	200	₦2.7bn	₦2.22bn	77%	1.4 yr
Worship	218	164	₦59.6m	₦59.6m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	8	7	₦23.7m	₦23.7m	69%	1.4 yr
Productive Use	1	0	₦625k	₦625k	39%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	56,710	852	₦320m	₦317m	7%	15.1 yr
30 50m2	16,692	429	₦564m	₦561m	11%	8.4 yr
50 100m2	15,979	684	₦3.3bn	₦2.95bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	4,232	459	₦3.29bn	₦3.23bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	641	161	₦4.29bn	₦3.75bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	18	10	₦2.08bn	₦1.66bn	57%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	28,607	221	₦4.3bn	₦3.6bn	9%	13.4 yr
Unclassified	26,247	431	₦4.25bn	₦3.67bn	7%	15.6 yr
Dense Urban	19,992	1,613	₦3.99bn	₦3.89bn	23%	4.6 yr
Rural	19,426	330	₦1.31bn	₦1.31bn	11%	8.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	59,981	651	₦255m	₦255m	7%	15.1 yr
Residential Small	16,793	581	₦3.58bn	₦3.22bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	7,822	395	₦6.26bn	₦5.72bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	5,731	0	₦146m	₦146m	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Informal	2,538	3	₦191m	₦191m	31%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	430	367	₦62.6m	₦62.6m	69%	1.6 yr
Institutional	206	165	₦1.39bn	₦1.39bn	61%	1.6 yr
Market	194	6	₦5.79m	₦5.79m	31%	3.4 yr
Commercial	166	113	₦241m	₦241m	71%	1.4 yr
Educational Facility	94	76	₦165m	₦165m	93%	1.1 yr
Worship Center	74	55	₦12.3m	₦12.3m	69%	1.4 yr
Place Of Worship	70	54	₦7.91m	₦7.91m	69%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	94,272	2,595	₦13.9bn	₦12.5bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	93,846	2,275	₦10.9bn	₦9.98bn	9%	9.6 yr
Enterprise	255	207	₦2.72bn	₦2.24bn	73%	1.4 yr
SME High	171	113	₦242m	₦242m	71%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	60,062	714	₦261m	₦261m
2.0	14,194	536	₦2.89bn	₦2.66bn
3.0	8,285	668	₦9.15bn	₦8.12bn
1.0	6,939	660	₦1.16bn	₦1.03bn
4.0	4,791	16	₦348m	₦348m
5.0	1	1	₦52.8m	₦52.8m