Zamfara State

Rooftop solar in Kaura Namoda, Zamfara: what the roofs are worth

Kaura Namoda has 145,782 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.18 GWp of roof capacity. 3% run a generator, and together they spend ₦23bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

145,782

Usable roof area

5.33 km²

1.18 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦23bn/yr

19 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

6.6 yr

Median IRR 15% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kaura Namoda

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦23bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦21.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.19tn

NPV₦173bn

Median IRR15%

Median payback6.6 yr

Unlocked energy21.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity166 MWp

Capex₦178bn

Year-one energy value₦199bn

Lifetime energy value₦9.43tn

NPV₦1.64tn

Median IRR111%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Kaura Namoda's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 166 MWp
Capital cost: ₦178bn
Year 1 savings: ₦199bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.64tn
Median IRR: 111%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kaura Namoda pays back quickly

Of the 145,626 buildings in Kaura Namoda with a modelled payback, 41.6% pay back inside five years and 3.2% inside three.

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How much of Kaura Namoda's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kaura Namoda consume 45.5 GWh/yr but want 67 GWh/yr. The 32% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kaura Namoda

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kaura Namoda actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 145,626 buildings with a modelled result out of 145,782 in Kaura Namoda. 73,818 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years4,588 (3%)

Under 5 years60,563 (42%)

Under 7 years73,961 (51%)

Under 10 years97,158 (67%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%89,884 (62%)

Above 15%73,818 (51%)

Above 20%64,531 (44%)

Above 25%52,139 (36%)

CO₂ avoided

42.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

9.13 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

21.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

593k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kaura Namoda.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kaura Namoda

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	64,494	2,335	₦8.58bn	₦7.5bn	11%	9.1 yr
E	42,220	1,073	₦4.39bn	₦4.28bn	11%	9.4 yr
C	39,068	1,090	₦9.98bn	₦9.71bn	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	144,301	3,311	₦16.6bn	₦15.3bn	15%	6.9 yr
Commercial General	468	380	₦1.77bn	₦1.77bn	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	462	389	₦148m	₦148m	71%	1.4 yr
Anchor	424	318	₦4.41bn	₦4.21bn	65%	1.6 yr
Worship	117	95	₦41.3m	₦41.3m	65%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	4	3	₦6.97m	₦6.97m	59%	1.4 yr
Industrial	3	0	₦4.09m	₦4.09m	39%	2.6 yr
Mall Retail	2	2	₦1.82m	₦1.82m	75%	1.4 yr
Hospitality	1	0	₦1.33m	₦1.33m	39%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	68,434	1,503	₦561m	₦556m	7%	14.1 yr
50 100m2	35,099	1,117	₦4.14bn	₦3.93bn	31%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	27,792	723	₦817m	₦806m	13%	7.9 yr
100 250m2	12,681	848	₦6.82bn	₦6.1bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	1,727	284	₦6.88bn	₦6.51bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	49	23	₦3.74bn	₦3.6bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	80,725	2,707	₦14.2bn	₦13.1bn	11%	9.1 yr
Urban Centre	33,186	421	₦2.66bn	₦2.64bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	14,025	473	₦4.14bn	₦3.81bn	7%	13.9 yr
Dense Urban	12,645	705	₦1.7bn	₦1.65bn	19%	5.6 yr
Rural	5,201	192	₦274m	₦274m	11%	9.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	74,800	1,103	₦383m	₦383m	7%	13.9 yr
Residential Small	34,309	1,249	₦4.45bn	₦4.23bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Informal	21,570	167	₦957m	₦957m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	11,976	721	₦10.6bn	₦9.61bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Formal	1,634	68	₦125m	₦125m	29%	3.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	462	389	₦148m	₦148m	71%	1.4 yr
Institutional	252	190	₦3.28bn	₦3.24bn	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	222	208	₦1.07bn	₦1.07bn	73%	1.4 yr
Educational Facility	147	108	₦316m	₦316m	91%	1.1 yr
School	105	76	₦148m	₦148m	89%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	79	64	₦734m	₦622m	61%	1.6 yr
Clinic	68	51	₦323m	₦318m	61%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	145,779	4,498	₦23bn	₦21.5bn
Farmland	3	0	₦672k	₦672k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	145,117	3,963	₦17.4bn	₦16.2bn	15%	6.9 yr
Enterprise	424	317	₦4.41bn	₦4.22bn	63%	1.6 yr
SME High	241	218	₦1.12bn	₦1.12bn	73%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	73,062	1,119	₦374m	₦374m
2.0	30,188	1,017	₦3.76bn	₦3.48bn
3.0	22,052	1,373	₦15.5bn	₦14.5bn
1.0	13,315	789	₦1.47bn	₦1.27bn
4.0	7,151	191	₦1.56bn	₦1.56bn
5.0	11	7	₦246m	₦246m
6.0	3	2	₦26.1m	₦26.1m