Zamfara State

Rooftop solar in Tsafe, Zamfara: what the roofs are worth

Tsafe has 127,320 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.01 GWp of roof capacity. 8% run a generator, and together they spend ₦14.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

127,320

Usable roof area

4.57 km²

1.01 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦14.8bn/yr

13.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

6.6 yr

Median IRR 15% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Tsafe

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦14.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦14.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦833bn

NPV₦123bn

Median IRR15%

Median payback6.6 yr

Unlocked energy19.8 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity120 MWp

Capex₦126bn

Year-one energy value₦137bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.51tn

NPV₦1.13tn

Median IRR115%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Tsafe's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 120 MWp
Capital cost: ₦126bn
Year 1 savings: ₦137bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.13tn
Median IRR: 115%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Tsafe pays back quickly

Of the 125,698 buildings in Tsafe with a modelled payback, 42.7% pay back inside five years and 8.8% inside three.

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How much of Tsafe's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Tsafe consume 31.8 GWh/yr but want 51.6 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Tsafe

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Tsafe actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 125,698 buildings with a modelled result out of 127,320 in Tsafe. 63,592 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years11,018 (9%)

Under 5 years53,712 (43%)

Under 7 years63,692 (51%)

Under 10 years89,253 (71%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%82,537 (65%)

Above 15%63,592 (50%)

Above 20%56,874 (45%)

Above 25%46,800 (37%)

CO₂ avoided

30.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.64 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

19.8 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

341k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Tsafe.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Tsafe

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	57,364	4,628	₦5.93bn	₦5.84bn	13%	7.9 yr
E	47,650	4,354	₦5.75bn	₦5.67bn	13%	8.1 yr
C	22,288	1,367	₦3.07bn	₦3.07bn	21%	5.1 yr
B	18	0	₦74.4k	₦74.4k	11%	8.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	120,010	3,960	₦7.67bn	₦7.5bn	13%	7.6 yr
Commercial Retail	4,493	4,009	₦888m	₦888m	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	2,248	1,931	₦4.62bn	₦4.62bn	59%	1.9 yr
Anchor	457	355	₦1.49bn	₦1.49bn	85%	1.1 yr
Worship	100	90	₦76.8m	₦76.8m	67%	1.6 yr
Industrial	11	4	₦3.63m	₦3.63m	41%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	1	0	₦589k	₦589k	39%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	56,460	4,044	₦820m	₦818m	7%	13.9 yr
50 100m2	31,477	2,625	₦3.79bn	₦3.79bn	29%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	27,815	2,214	₦1.04bn	₦1.04bn	13%	7.9 yr
100 250m2	10,295	1,214	₦4.72bn	₦4.6bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	1,245	240	₦3.3bn	₦3.25bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	28	12	₦1.08bn	₦1.08bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	41,300	3,264	₦5.52bn	₦5.44bn	13%	7.6 yr
Rural	31,582	2,939	₦3.33bn	₦3.26bn	13%	8.1 yr
Unclassified	23,576	837	₦2.32bn	₦2.3bn	7%	14.1 yr
Dense Urban	17,579	2,575	₦2.21bn	₦2.21bn	23%	4.6 yr
Urban Centre	13,283	734	₦1.37bn	₦1.37bn	21%	5.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	63,553	1,664	₦389m	₦389m	9%	13.4 yr
Residential Small	33,325	1,801	₦3.12bn	₦3.12bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	10,916	495	₦3.83bn	₦3.66bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Informal	7,040	0	₦236m	₦236m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	5,172	0	₦99m	₦99m	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	4,493	4,009	₦888m	₦888m	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial	1,516	1,278	₦3.37bn	₦3.37bn	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	478	465	₦752m	₦752m	59%	1.9 yr
Institutional	271	212	₦1.14bn	₦1.14bn	63%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	173	136	₦274m	₦274m	93%	1.1 yr
School	149	115	₦131m	₦131m	91%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	63	48	₦323m	₦322m	61%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	127,243	10,349	₦14.8bn	₦14.6bn
Farmland	77	0	₦1.1m	₦1.1m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	124,876	8,261	₦9.15bn	₦8.98bn	13%	7.1 yr
SME High	1,995	1,743	₦4.12bn	₦4.12bn	57%	1.9 yr
Enterprise	449	345	₦1.49bn	₦1.49bn	79%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	61,615	1,720	₦384m	₦384m
2.0	25,016	3,112	₦2.95bn	₦2.85bn
3.0	20,584	2,528	₦6.89bn	₦6.82bn
1.0	11,317	1,838	₦1.03bn	₦1.03bn
4.0	7,779	345	₦1.48bn	₦1.48bn
5.0	953	765	₦1.61bn	₦1.61bn
6.0	56	41	₦409m	₦409m