Zamfara State

Rooftop solar in Gusau, Zamfara: what the roofs are worth

Gusau has 241,842 buildings with a viable rooftop and 3.05 GWp of roof capacity. 12% run a generator, and together they spend ₦79.7bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

241,842

Usable roof area

13.7 km²

3.05 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦79.7bn/yr

64.3 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Gusau

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦79.7bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦78.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦4.27tn

NPV₦623bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy67.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity275 MWp

Capex₦286bn

Year-one energy value₦234bn

Lifetime energy value₦11tn

NPV₦1.84tn

Median IRR83%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Gusau's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 275 MWp
Capital cost: ₦286bn
Year 1 savings: ₦234bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.84tn
Median IRR: 83%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Gusau pays back quickly

Of the 239,648 buildings in Gusau with a modelled payback, 63.2% pay back inside five years and 13.1% inside three.

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How much of Gusau's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Gusau consume 176 GWh/yr but want 243 GWh/yr. The 28% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Gusau

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Gusau actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 239,648 buildings with a modelled result out of 241,842 in Gusau. 178,753 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years31,376 (13%)

Under 5 years151,364 (63%)

Under 7 years178,933 (75%)

Under 10 years200,279 (84%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%194,678 (80%)

Above 15%178,753 (74%)

Above 20%161,340 (67%)

Above 25%129,619 (54%)

CO₂ avoided

151 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

30.9 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

67.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

498k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Gusau.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Gusau

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	77,252	13,326	₦34.2bn	₦33.6bn	31%	3.6 yr
B	56,707	10,189	₦28.7bn	₦28.5bn	29%	3.6 yr
D	53,708	3,138	₦6.36bn	₦6.11bn	11%	8.4 yr
E	33,318	1,852	₦7.01bn	₦6.75bn	9%	9.6 yr
C	20,857	1,116	₦3.45bn	₦3.44bn	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	235,179	25,355	₦45.9bn	₦45.3bn	25%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	2,865	1,848	₦14.2bn	₦14bn	43%	2.6 yr
Commercial Retail	2,762	1,663	₦692m	₦690m	45%	2.4 yr
Anchor	759	554	₦17.5bn	₦17.1bn	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	145	115	₦97.3m	₦97.3m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	81	45	₦656m	₦591m	45%	2.4 yr
Hospitality	30	26	₦565m	₦514m	49%	2.1 yr
Filling Station	9	6	₦12.5m	₦12.5m	47%	2.4 yr
Mall Retail	8	6	₦125m	₦116m	49%	2.1 yr
Productive Use	3	2	₦6.52m	₦6.52m	45%	2.4 yr
Automotive	1	1	₦507k	₦507k	41%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	88,282	8,172	₦1.63bn	₦1.62bn	11%	8.6 yr
50 100m2	59,050	6,989	₦7.76bn	₦7.43bn	31%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	45,674	4,744	₦1.99bn	₦1.99bn	23%	4.6 yr
100 250m2	39,270	7,018	₦19.6bn	₦19.4bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	9,195	2,511	₦26.8bn	₦26.7bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	371	187	₦21.9bn	₦21.3bn	41%	2.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	131,759	22,825	₦56.2bn	₦55.6bn	31%	3.6 yr
Rural	33,969	2,307	₦3.49bn	₦3.49bn	11%	8.6 yr
Urban	33,001	2,541	₦8.56bn	₦8.27bn	13%	8.1 yr
Unclassified	24,553	1,234	₦8.87bn	₦8.51bn	7%	13.9 yr
Dense Urban	18,560	714	₦2.56bn	₦2.56bn	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	89,669	10,850	₦18.3bn	₦18.2bn	31%	3.6 yr
Shed	83,537	5,472	₦1.2bn	₦1.2bn	9%	9.4 yr
Residential Small	34,158	4,295	₦5.72bn	₦5.46bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	16,785	3,408	₦19.5bn	₦19.3bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	10,371	1,199	₦1.06bn	₦1.06bn	29%	3.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,759	1,660	₦651m	₦651m	45%	2.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,206	848	₦6.92bn	₦6.9bn	47%	2.4 yr
Commercial	883	474	₦3.46bn	₦3.42bn	41%	2.6 yr
Apartment	498	91	₦71m	₦71m	31%	3.6 yr
Institutional	436	314	₦15.9bn	₦15.7bn	43%	2.6 yr
Unknown	379	238	₦1.96bn	₦1.87bn	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	250	179	₦552m	₦552m	63%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	241,690	29,604	₦79.6bn	₦78.4bn
Farmland	107	1	₦4.38m	₦4.38m
Farmyard	26	0	₦655k	₦655k
Industrial	19	16	₦25.3m	₦25.3m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	238,918	27,691	₦51bn	₦50.2bn	27%	4.1 yr
SME High	2,137	1,363	₦10.9bn	₦10.8bn	45%	2.4 yr
Enterprise	787	567	₦17.8bn	₦17.5bn	59%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	78,638	5,390	₦1.13bn	₦1.13bn
3.0	54,410	8,645	₦31bn	₦30.2bn
4.0	46,604	6,783	₦33.4bn	₦33.2bn
2.0	44,660	5,993	₦5.8bn	₦5.67bn
1.0	16,644	2,349	₦1.39bn	₦1.39bn
5.0	719	377	₦4.61bn	₦4.58bn
6.0	167	84	₦2.36bn	₦2.25bn