Zamfara State

Rooftop solar in Shinkafi, Zamfara: what the roofs are worth

Shinkafi has 75,309 buildings with a viable rooftop and 532 MWp of roof capacity. 3% run a generator, and together they spend ₦13.6bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

75,309

Usable roof area

2.4 km²

532 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦13.6bn/yr

11.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

8.6 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Shinkafi

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦13.6bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦13.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦705bn

NPV₦107bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback8.6 yr

Unlocked energy7.95 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity55 MWp

Capex₦59.6bn

Year-one energy value₦63.2bn

Lifetime energy value₦3tn

NPV₦518bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Shinkafi's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 55 MWp
Capital cost: ₦59.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦63.2bn/yr
NPV: ₦518bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Shinkafi pays back quickly

Of the 74,634 buildings in Shinkafi with a modelled payback, 32.9% pay back inside five years and 3.4% inside three.

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How much of Shinkafi's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Shinkafi consume 22.3 GWh/yr but want 30.2 GWh/yr. The 26% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Shinkafi

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Shinkafi actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 74,634 buildings with a modelled result out of 75,309 in Shinkafi. 33,601 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years2,551 (3%)

Under 5 years24,561 (33%)

Under 7 years33,663 (45%)

Under 10 years43,140 (58%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%40,264 (53%)

Above 15%33,601 (45%)

Above 20%27,302 (36%)

Above 25%20,025 (27%)

CO₂ avoided

23.7 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

6.66 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

7.95 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

170k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Shinkafi.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Shinkafi

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	28,138	699	₦2.77bn	₦2.75bn	11%	9.1 yr
E	23,828	431	₦2.34bn	₦2.2bn	7%	14.1 yr
C	23,343	1,368	₦8.46bn	₦8.4bn	21%	5.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	74,383	1,815	₦10.8bn	₦10.6bn	11%	8.9 yr
Commercial General	372	314	₦1.13bn	₦1.1bn	69%	1.4 yr
Anchor	245	161	₦1.57bn	₦1.54bn	61%	1.9 yr
Worship	232	158	₦64.9m	₦64.9m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	74	47	₦16.1m	₦16.1m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	3	3	₦12.4m	₦12.4m	83%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	43,148	763	₦294m	₦294m	7%	15.1 yr
50 100m2	12,953	533	₦1.25bn	₦1.25bn	31%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	12,565	350	₦300m	₦300m	13%	7.9 yr
100 250m2	5,657	616	₦4.01bn	₦4.01bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	967	231	₦6.55bn	₦6.36bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	19	5	₦1.16bn	₦1.14bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	18,378	664	₦1.92bn	₦1.92bn	19%	5.6 yr
Urban Centre	18,122	757	₦5.24bn	₦5.18bn	21%	4.9 yr
Unclassified	16,761	414	₦3.37bn	₦3.26bn	5%	16.4 yr
Rural	12,014	321	₦527m	₦484m	7%	14.6 yr
Urban	10,034	342	₦2.51bn	₦2.51bn	11%	9.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	45,297	491	₦240m	₦240m	7%	14.4 yr
Residential Informal	13,040	55	₦915m	₦911m	25%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	10,185	611	₦1.32bn	₦1.32bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	5,861	658	₦8.31bn	₦8.16bn	29%	3.6 yr
Institutional	210	146	₦1.25bn	₦1.22bn	61%	1.9 yr
Market	149	147	₦31.9m	₦31.9m	71%	1.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	89	76	₦848m	₦817m	73%	1.4 yr
Educational Facility	78	52	₦157m	₦157m	87%	1.1 yr
Worship Center	77	52	₦14.2m	₦14.2m	69%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	77	52	₦11.3m	₦11.3m	69%	1.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	74	47	₦16.1m	₦16.1m	57%	1.9 yr
School	66	39	₦61.1m	₦61.1m	81%	1.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	75,281	2,498	₦13.6bn	₦13.4bn
Farmland	28	0	₦43.1k	₦43.1k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	74,967	2,256	₦11.1bn	₦11bn	11%	8.6 yr
Enterprise	247	163	₦1.58bn	₦1.55bn	61%	1.9 yr
SME High	95	79	₦869m	₦838m	71%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	44,651	537	₦241m	₦241m
2.0	12,762	598	₦1.71bn	₦1.71bn
3.0	10,282	924	₦9.96bn	₦9.79bn
1.0	4,652	381	₦277m	₦277m
4.0	2,954	50	₦783m	₦783m
5.0	8	8	₦592m	₦561m