Zamfara State

Rooftop solar in Maru, Zamfara: what the roofs are worth

Maru has 180,646 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.2 GWp of roof capacity. 3% run a generator, and together they spend ₦14.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

180,646

Usable roof area

5.45 km²

1.2 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦14.4bn/yr

12.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.9 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Maru

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦14.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦14.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦798bn

NPV₦113bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback9.9 yr

Unlocked energy17.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity128 MWp

Capex₦137bn

Year-one energy value₦146bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.94tn

NPV₦1.2tn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Maru's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 128 MWp
Capital cost: ₦137bn
Year 1 savings: ₦146bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.2tn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Maru pays back quickly

Of the 177,897 buildings in Maru with a modelled payback, 28.6% pay back inside five years and 3.5% inside three.

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How much of Maru's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Maru consume 32.1 GWh/yr but want 49.6 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Maru

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Maru actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 177,897 buildings with a modelled result out of 180,646 in Maru. 66,729 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years6,165 (3%)

Under 5 years50,879 (29%)

Under 7 years66,852 (38%)

Under 10 years90,856 (51%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%82,849 (46%)

Above 15%66,729 (37%)

Above 20%55,692 (31%)

Above 25%41,206 (23%)

CO₂ avoided

28.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.3 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

17.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

431k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Maru.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Maru

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	88,070	2,305	₦4.86bn	₦4.79bn	9%	12.9 yr
E	75,514	2,323	₦4.7bn	₦4.55bn	9%	13.1 yr
C	17,062	1,389	₦4.88bn	₦4.88bn	19%	5.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	176,445	2,427	₦7.24bn	₦7.05bn	9%	12.9 yr
Commercial Retail	2,249	1,912	₦548m	₦548m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	1,446	1,285	₦4.45bn	₦4.45bn	61%	1.6 yr
Anchor	405	305	₦2.13bn	₦2.1bn	69%	1.6 yr
Worship	96	86	₦63.7m	₦63.7m	69%	1.6 yr
Industrial	2	1	₦5.19m	₦5.19m	41%	1.1 yr
Filling Station	1	0	₦65.7k	₦65.7k	37%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	1	0	₦233k	₦233k	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	1	1	₦2.37m	₦1.58m	93%	1.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	97,894	2,075	₦597m	₦588m	5%	15.9 yr
50 100m2	37,368	1,502	₦2.92bn	₦2.92bn	27%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	33,362	1,036	₦706m	₦706m	11%	8.9 yr
100 250m2	10,637	1,063	₦4.44bn	₦4.41bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	1,356	326	₦4.03bn	₦3.84bn	31%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	29	15	₦1.75bn	₦1.75bn	37%	2.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	70,187	506	₦2.87bn	₦2.71bn	5%	16.1 yr
Rural	64,540	1,470	₦1.92bn	₦1.92bn	9%	9.6 yr
Dense Urban	29,059	3,114	₦6.51bn	₦6.5bn	23%	4.9 yr
Urban	16,860	927	₦3.15bn	₦3.09bn	11%	8.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	109,651	809	₦364m	₦364m	7%	15.4 yr
Residential Small	42,512	813	₦2.22bn	₦2.21bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential	13,014	553	₦4.04bn	₦3.86bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Formal	6,281	2	₦159m	₦159m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Informal	4,964	250	₦458m	₦458m	29%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,249	1,912	₦548m	₦548m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	664	611	₦1.84bn	₦1.84bn	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial	577	516	₦2.25bn	₦2.25bn	53%	2.1 yr
Institutional	231	181	₦1.36bn	₦1.36bn	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	150	114	₦179m	₦179m	89%	1.1 yr
School	114	87	₦62.4m	₦62.4m	87%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	68	48	₦301m	₦301m	59%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	180,646	6,017	₦14.4bn	₦14.2bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	178,997	4,584	₦8.21bn	₦8.02bn	9%	9.9 yr
SME High	1,243	1,128	₦4.1bn	₦4.1bn	61%	1.6 yr
Enterprise	406	305	₦2.13bn	₦2.1bn	69%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	108,612	829	₦360m	₦360m
2.0	28,607	1,312	₦1.99bn	₦1.98bn
3.0	20,602	1,643	₦6.9bn	₦6.69bn
1.0	13,745	1,344	₦935m	₦935m
4.0	8,647	460	₦1.79bn	₦1.78bn
5.0	387	383	₦1.45bn	₦1.45bn
6.0	46	46	₦1.01bn	₦1.01bn